Author: Ludovic Gauvin Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
China's rapid growth over the past decade has been one of the main drivers of the rise in mineral commodity demand and prices. While concerns about the sustainability of China's growth model are rising, we assess to what extent rebalancing through a hard landing in China would impact other countries. After reviewing the main arguments pointing to a hard landing scenario--historical rebalancing precedents, overinvestment, unsustainable debt trends and real estate bubble--we use a global VAR methodology adapted to conditional forecasting to simulate the impact of a Chinese hard landing. We model metal and oil markets separately to account for their different end-use patterns and consumption intensity in China. According to our estimates, emerging economies would be hardest hit--with a 7.5% cumulated growth loss after 5 years--in particular in Emerging Asia and in commodity-exporting regions such as Latin America. The “growth gap” between emerging and advanced economies would be considerably reduced, leading to partial recoupling. In the light of these results, both the “commodity supercycle” and sustained convergence observed in emerging economies over the past decade could be to a large extent attributed to the high and unbalanced growth pattern in China.
Author: Ludovic Gauvin Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 62
Book Description
China's rapid growth over the past decade has been one of the main drivers of the rise in mineral commodity demand and prices. At a time when concerns about the sustainability of China's growth model are rising, this paper assesses to what extent a hard landing in China would impact other countries, with a focus on trade and commodity price channels. After reviewing the main arguments pointing to a hard landing scenario - historical rebalancing precedents, over-investment, unsustainable debt trends, and a growing real estate bubble - we focus on a sample of thirty-six countries, and use a global VAR methodology adapted to conditional forecasting to simulate the impact of a Chinese hard landing. We model metal and oil markets separately to account for their different end-use patterns and consumption intensity in China, and we identify three specific transmission channels to net commodity exporters: through real exports, through income effects (related to commodity prices), and through investment (a fall in commodity prices reducing incentives to invest in the mining and energy sectors); we also look at the role played by the exchange rate as a shock absorber. According to our estimates, emerging economies (ex. China) would be hardest hit - with a 7.5 percent cumulated growth loss after five years -, in particular in South-East Asia but also in commodity-exporting regions such as Latin America; advanced economies would be less affected. The "growth gap" between emerging and advanced economies would be considerably reduced, leading to partial recoupling.
Author: Ms.Christina Kolerus Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475542054 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 26
Book Description
This note assesses empirically the role Chinese activity plays in global commodities markets, showing that the strength of China’s economic activity has a significant bearing on commodity prices, but that the impact differs across commodity markets, with industrial production shocks having a substantial impact on metals and crude oil prices and less so on food prices. The size of the impact on the prices of specific commodities varies with China’s footprint in the market for those commodities; the empirical estimates indicate that, over a one-year horizon, a 1 percent increase in industrial production leads to a 5–7 percent rise in metals and fuel prices. The surprise component in Chinese industrial production announcements has a bearing on commodity prices that is comparable in magnitude to that of industrial production surprises in the United States, and this impact is much larger when global risk aversion is high.
Author: Mr.Paul Cashin Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513590456 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 22
Book Description
China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.
Author: Rhys Jenkins Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0192866354 Category : Africa, Sub-Saharan Languages : en Pages : 465
Book Description
China's growing economic involvement in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America has been a source of major controversy. The official Chinese position maintains that the growth of bilateral relations is of mutual benefit and provides a good example of South-South cooperation. Critics on the other hand see the economic relations between China and other developing countries as highly unequal with most of the benefits accruing to China and a few local elites. They also point to negative socio-economic, political, and environmental consequences. How China is Reshaping the Global Economy: Development Impacts in Africa and Latin-America throws more light on these controversies through a comparative study of China's impact on the two regions. It looks not just at bilateral relations between China and the two regions but also analyses the changes in the global economy brought about as a result of the shift in economic activity from North America and Western Europe to Asia. This book looks at the factors which led to rapid economic growth in China and the way in which this has affected global manufacturing, commodity markets, the international presence of Chinese companies, and financial glows. It examines the different forms of Chinese economic involvement in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, the main drivers, and economic, social, political, and environmental consequences. It ends with a comparison of the two regions that highlights the importance of different histories and political and institutional contexts in determining the impacts of China. Since the first edition of How China is Reshaping the Global Economy: Development Impacts in Africa and Latin-America, China's role in the global economy has continued to expand and the Chinese government's foreign policy has become more assertive. The global presence of China has been marked by the expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative to almost 150 countries and the trade-war between the US and China, as well as increased Western concerns over the activities of major Chinese companies such as Huawei. This new edition documents these changes and their implications for SSA and LAC.
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484310322 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 112
Book Description
A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analyses distillated in a nontechnical manner. Includes discussion of structural trends behind commodities markets, their future implications, and policy implications.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 114
Book Description
This year’s report provides the external sector assessment of 30 of the world’s largest economies on the basis of their 2023 data. With tight monetary policy conditions in key advanced economies continuing in 2023, the US dollar remained strong in 2023 and early 2024 by historical standards, while other reserve currency movements have been mixed. Net capital inflows to emerging market and developing economies recovered slightly from the lows experienced in 2022 but remained negative in 2023. Gross inflows and outflows in emerging markets declined, however. Against this background, the global current account balance (defined as the cross-country sum of absolute values of current account) narrowed significantly in 2023, while the excess global current account balance (in excess of the current account norms) has remained broadly unchanged relative to 2022. The report also analyzes the historical pattern in the external sector implications of energy price swings. Energy-importing countries are exposed to adverse effects of negative oil supply shocks but can adopt several policy measures to soften the impact. Possible implications of the clean energy transition and the evolving correlation between the oil price and US dollar are discussed. Lastly, the report contains external sector assessments of individual economies, which are based on a wide range of methods including a multilaterally consistent model of current accounts.
Author: Nitya Nanda Publisher: The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) ISBN: 9386530007 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 170
Book Description
With increasing population, economic growth, rising demand, and receding resources, the inevitable question of who owns, manages, and utilizes resources has acquired paramount importance. With nations undertaking significant efforts to secure and access natural resources, a holistic resource security framework is critical and essential for a secure and sustainable future. India’s Resource Security: Trade, Geopolitics, and Efficiency Dimensions covers a wide range of issues within the domain of resource security. It attempts to make the readers understand the resource concerns from three perspectives: trade, geopolitics, and efficiency. The book highlights the major aspects that resource security encompasses: sustainable resource development and extraction, production and use, trade and investments, geopolitical considerations, and intergovernmental and multilateral cooperation. It also discusses resource efficiency intensifying globally, the potential scope for responsible resource development at the extraction and production levels, enhanced efficiency in resource use, and recycling and reuse at the end-use level to strengthen the framework for achieving resource security. The book also deals with multilateral approaches, various forms of cooperation—including the possible formation of a resource bank—focused resource-based engagement in South Asia, and the means to enhance bilateral relations with India’s relevant allies and partners.
Author: OECD Publisher: OECD Publishing ISBN: 9264220313 Category : Languages : en Pages : 312
Book Description
This OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. The present issue covers the outlook to end 2017 for both OECD countries and selected non OECD economies.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513599542 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 288
Book Description
According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.
Author: Ludovic Gauvin
Author: Ludovic Gauvin
Author: Ms.Christina Kolerus
Author: Mr.Paul Cashin
Author: Rhys Jenkins
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Nitya Nanda
Author: OECD
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.