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Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Drought forecasting Languages : en Pages : 120
Book Description
The post-processing technique is then expanded to exclusively study the drought forecasts across the different spatial and temporal scales. In the proposed drought forecasting model, the drought status in the future is evaluated based on the drought status of the past seasons while the correlations between the drought variables of consecutive seasons are preserved by copula functions. The main benefit of the new forecast model is its probabilistic features in analyzing future droughts. It develops conditional probability of drought status in the forecast season and generates the PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of future droughts given the past status. The conditional PDF can return the highest probable drought in the future along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. Using the conditional CDF for forecast season, the model can generate the maps of drought status across the basin with particular chance of occurrence in the future. In a different analysis of the conditional CDF developed for the forecast season, the chance of a particular drought in the forecast period can be approximated given the drought status of earlier seasons. The forecast methodology developed in this study shows promising results in hydrologic forecasts and its particular probabilistic features are inspiring for future studies.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Drought forecasting Languages : en Pages : 120
Book Description
The post-processing technique is then expanded to exclusively study the drought forecasts across the different spatial and temporal scales. In the proposed drought forecasting model, the drought status in the future is evaluated based on the drought status of the past seasons while the correlations between the drought variables of consecutive seasons are preserved by copula functions. The main benefit of the new forecast model is its probabilistic features in analyzing future droughts. It develops conditional probability of drought status in the forecast season and generates the PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of future droughts given the past status. The conditional PDF can return the highest probable drought in the future along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. Using the conditional CDF for forecast season, the model can generate the maps of drought status across the basin with particular chance of occurrence in the future. In a different analysis of the conditional CDF developed for the forecast season, the chance of a particular drought in the forecast period can be approximated given the drought status of earlier seasons. The forecast methodology developed in this study shows promising results in hydrologic forecasts and its particular probabilistic features are inspiring for future studies.
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science. Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards Publisher: ISBN: Category : Drought forecasting Languages : en Pages : 92
Author: Brian D. Wardlow Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1439835578 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 487
Book Description
Remote Sensing of Drought: Innovative Monitoring Approaches presents emerging remote sensing-based tools and techniques that can be applied to operational drought monitoring and early warning around the world. The first book to focus on remote sensing and drought monitoring, it brings together a wealth of information that has been scattered throughout the literature and across many disciplines. Featuring contributions by leading scientists, it assembles a cross-section of globally applicable techniques that are currently operational or have potential to be operational in the near future. The book explores a range of applications for monitoring four critical components of the hydrological cycle related to drought: vegetation health, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater, and precipitation. These applications use remotely sensed optical, thermal, microwave, radar, and gravity data from instruments such as AMSR-E, GOES, GRACE, MERIS, MODIS, and Landsat and implement several advanced modeling and data assimilation techniques. Examples show how to integrate this information into routine drought products. The book also examines the role of satellite remote sensing within traditional drought monitoring, as well as current challenges and future prospects. Improving drought monitoring is becoming increasingly important in addressing a wide range of societal issues, from food security and water scarcity to human health, ecosystem services, and energy production. This unique book surveys innovative remote sensing approaches to provide you with new perspectives on large-area drought monitoring and early warning.
Author: United Nations Environment Programme Publisher: UN ISBN: 9789211005806 Category : Nature Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
An examination of the effects of, and research into, the El Nino phenomenon. Originating in the Pacific region, El Nino effects a reversal in the direction of winds and ocean currents, and changes in ocean temperature between Indonesia and the Pacific coas
Author: Giuseppe Rossi Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1402059248 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 418
Book Description
Frequent drought events have recently occurred in different Mediterranean regions. These have highlighted a general inadequacy of the current strategies applied to mitigate negative impacts of such phenomenon. This book provides various methods of drought monitoring at different spatial scales, as well as innovative drought forecasting techniques based on stochastic approaches. Besides common drought indices (i.e. SPI), new agrometeorological indices are proposed.
Author: Vitali Diaz Mercado Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 100061283X Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 135
Book Description
Studies of drought have increased in light of new data availability and advances in spatio-temporal analysis. However, the following gaps still need to be filled: 1) methods to characterise drought that explicitly consider its spatio-temporal features, such as spatial extent (area) and pathway; 2) methods to monitor and predict drought that include the above-mentioned characteristics and 3) approaches for visualising and analysing drought characteristics to facilitate interpretation of its variation. This research aims to explore, analyse and propose improvements to the spatio-temporal characterisation of drought. Outcomes provide new perspectives towards better prediction. The following objectives were proposed. 1) Improve the methodology for characterising drought based on the phenomenon’s spatial features. 2) Develop a visual approach to analysing drought variations. 3) Develop a methodology for spatial drought tracking. 4) Explore machine learning (ML) techniques to predict crop-yield responses to drought. The four objectives were addressed and results are presented. Finally, a scope was formulated for integrating ML and the spatio-temporal analysis of drought. Proposed scope opens a new area of potential for drought prediction (i.e. predicting spatial drought tracks and areas). It is expected that the drought tracking and prediction method will help populations cope with drought and its severe impacts.
Author: Marina Astitha Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 0128202432 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 359
Book Description
Extreme Weather Forecasting reviews current knowledge about extreme weather events, including key elements and less well-known variables to accurately forecast them. The book covers multiple temporal scales as well as components of current weather forecasting systems. Sections cover case studies on successful forecasting as well as the impacts of extreme weather predictability, presenting a comprehensive and model agnostic review of best practices for atmospheric scientists and others who utilize extreme weather forecasts. - Reviews recent developments in numerical prediction for better forecasting of extreme weather events - Covers causes and mechanisms of high impact extreme events and how to account for these variables when forecasting - Includes numerous case studies on successful forecasting, outlining why they worked
Author: Vijay P. Singh Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000905616 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 615
Book Description
The first volume of this comprehensive global perspective on Integrated Drought Management is focused on understanding drought, causes, and the assessment of drought impacts. It explains different types of drought: agricultural, meteorological, hydrological, and socioeconomic droughts, their indices and the impact of climate change on drought. The volume also examines spatiotemporal analysis of drought, variability and patterns, assessment, and drought evaluation. With numerous case studies from India, Mexico, Turkey, Brazil, US, and other countries, this volume serves as a valuable resource for all readers who want to advance their knowledge on drought and risk management. Features: Provides a global perspective on drought prediction and management and a synthesis of the recent state of knowledge. Covers a wide range of topics from essential concepts and advanced techniques for forecasting and modeling drought to societal impacts, consequences, and planning. Presents numerous case studies with different management approaches from different regions and countries. Addresses how climate change impacts drought, the increasing challenges associated with managing drought, decision making, and policy implications. Includes contributions from hundreds of experts around the world. Professionals, researchers, academics, and postgraduate students with knowledge in environmental sciences, ecology, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, water resources engineering, and earth sciences, as well as those interested in how climate change impacts drought management, will gain new insights from the experts featured in this two-volume handbook.
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Author: Taylor & Francis Group
Author: Lena M. Tallaksen
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science. Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards
Author: Brian D. Wardlow
Author: United Nations Environment Programme
Author: Giuseppe Rossi
Author: Vitali Diaz Mercado
Author: Marina Astitha
Author: Vijay P. Singh