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Author: Robert F. Whitelaw Publisher: ISBN: Category : Speculation Languages : en Pages : 54
Book Description
This paper documents predictable time-variation in stock market Sharpe ratios. Predetermined financial variables are used to estimate both the conditional mean and volatility of equity returns, and these moments are combined toestimate the conditional Sharpe ratio. In sample, estimated conditional Sharpe ratios show substantial time-variation that coincides with the variation in ex post Sharpe ratios and with the phases of the business cycle. Generally, Sharpe ratios are low at the peak of the cycle and high at the trough. In out-of-sample analysis, using 10-year rolling, regressions, we can identify periods in which the ex post Sharpe ratio is approximately three times larger than its full-sample value. Moreover, relatively naive market-timing strategies that exploit this predictability can generate Sharpe ratios more than 70% larger than a buy-and-hold strategy
Author: Robert F. Whitelaw Publisher: ISBN: Category : Speculation Languages : en Pages : 54
Book Description
This paper documents predictable time-variation in stock market Sharpe ratios. Predetermined financial variables are used to estimate both the conditional mean and volatility of equity returns, and these moments are combined toestimate the conditional Sharpe ratio. In sample, estimated conditional Sharpe ratios show substantial time-variation that coincides with the variation in ex post Sharpe ratios and with the phases of the business cycle. Generally, Sharpe ratios are low at the peak of the cycle and high at the trough. In out-of-sample analysis, using 10-year rolling, regressions, we can identify periods in which the ex post Sharpe ratio is approximately three times larger than its full-sample value. Moreover, relatively naive market-timing strategies that exploit this predictability can generate Sharpe ratios more than 70% larger than a buy-and-hold strategy
Author: Wayne Ferson Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262039370 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 497
Book Description
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Author: Andrew Ang Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 0199959323 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 717
Book Description
Stocks and bonds? Real estate? Hedge funds? Private equity? If you think those are the things to focus on in building an investment portfolio, Andrew Ang has accumulated a body of research that will prove otherwise. In this book, Ang upends the conventional wisdom about asset allocation by showing that what matters aren't asset class labels but the bundles of overlapping risks they represent.
Author: George O. Aragon Publisher: Now Publishers Inc ISBN: 1601980825 Category : Financial risk management Languages : en Pages : 123
Book Description
This paper provides a review of the methods for measuring portfolio performance and the evidence on the performance of professionally managed investment portfolios. Traditional performance measures, strongly influenced by the Capital Asset Pricing Model of Sharpe (1964), were developed prior to 1990. We discuss some of the properties and important problems associated with these measures. We then review the more recent Conditional Performance Evaluation techniques, designed to allow for expected returns and risks that may vary over time, and thus addressing one major shortcoming of the traditional measures. We also discuss weight-based performance measures and the stochastic discount factor approach. We review the evidence that these newer measures have produced on selectivity and market timing ability for professional managed investment funds. The evidence includes equity style mutual funds, pension funds, asset allocation style funds, fixed income funds and hedge funds.
Author: Riccardo Rebonato Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470091401 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 864
Book Description
In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Author: G. Elliott Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 0080460674 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 1071
Book Description
Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing.*Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods *Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines
Author: Steven E. Pav Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000442764 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 353
Book Description
The Sharpe Ratio: Statistics and Applications is the most widely used metric for comparing the performance of financial assets. The Markowitz portfolio is the portfolio with the highest Sharpe ratio. The Sharpe Ratio: Statistics and Applications examines the statistical properties of the Sharpe ratio and Markowitz portfolio, both under the simplifying assumption of Gaussian returns, and asymptotically. Connections are drawn between the financial measures and classical statistics including Student's t, Hotelling's T^2 and the Hotelling-Lawley trace. The robustness of these statistics to heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, fat tails and skew of returns are considered. The construction of portfolios to maximize the Sharpe is expanded from the usual static unconditional model to include subspace constraints, hedging out assets, and the use of conditioning information on both expected returns and risk. The Sharpe Ratio: Statistics and Applications is the most comprehensive treatment of the statistical properties of the Sharpe ratio and Markowitz portfolio ever published. Features: 1. Material on single asset problems, market timing, unconditional and conditional portfolio problems, hedged portfolios. 2. Inference via both Frequentist and Bayesian paradigms. 3. A comprehensive treatment of overoptimism and overfitting of trading strategies. 4. Advice on backtesting strategies. 5. Dozens of examples and hundreds of exercises for self study. The Sharpe Ratio: Statistics and Applications is an essential reference for the practicing quant strategist and the researcher alike, and an invaluable textbook for the student.
Author: Euan Sinclair Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470181990 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 228
Book Description
In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.
Author: M. A. H. Dempster Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000784045 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 864
Book Description
Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development. Commodities: Fundamental Theory of Futures, Forwards, and Derivatives Pricing, Second Edition covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets, as well as the interaction between commodity prices, the real economy, and other financial markets. After a thoroughly updated and extensive theoretical and practical introduction, this new edition of the book is divided into five parts – the fifth of which is entirely new material covering cutting-edge developments. Oil Products considers the structural changes in the demand and supply for hedging services that are increasingly determining the price of oil Other Commodities examines markets related to agricultural commodities, including natural gas, wine, soybeans, corn, gold, silver, copper, and other metals Commodity Prices and Financial Markets investigates the contemporary aspects of the financialization of commodities, including stocks, bonds, futures, currency markets, index products, and exchange traded funds Electricity Markets supplies an overview of the current and future modelling of electricity markets Contemporary Topics discuss rough volatility, order book trading, cryptocurrencies, text mining for price dynamics and flash crashes
Author: Robert F. Whitelaw
Author: Robert F. Whitelaw
Author: Wayne Ferson
Author: Andrew Ang
Author: George O. Aragon
Author: Riccardo Rebonato
Author: G. Elliott
Author: John H. Cochrane
Author: Steven E. Pav
Author: Euan Sinclair
Author: M. A. H. Dempster