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Author: Marc Hallin Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company ISBN: 9789813278004 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 764
Book Description
Factor models have become the most successful tool in the analysis and forecasting of high-dimensional time series. This monograph provides an extensive account of the so-called General Dynamic Factor Model methods. The topics covered include: asymptotic representation problems, estimation, forecasting, identification of the number of factors, identification of structural shocks, volatility analysis, and applications to macroeconomic and financial data.
Author: Marc Hallin Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company ISBN: 9789813278004 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 764
Book Description
Factor models have become the most successful tool in the analysis and forecasting of high-dimensional time series. This monograph provides an extensive account of the so-called General Dynamic Factor Model methods. The topics covered include: asymptotic representation problems, estimation, forecasting, identification of the number of factors, identification of structural shocks, volatility analysis, and applications to macroeconomic and financial data.
Author: Michael P. Clements Publisher: OUP USA ISBN: 0195398645 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 732
Book Description
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Author: Manfred Deistler Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3031132130 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 213
Book Description
This textbook provides a self-contained presentation of the theory and models of time series analysis. Putting an emphasis on weakly stationary processes and linear dynamic models, it describes the basic concepts, ideas, methods and results in a mathematically well-founded form and includes numerous examples and exercises. The first part presents the theory of weakly stationary processes in time and frequency domain, including prediction and filtering. The second part deals with multivariate AR, ARMA and state space models, which are the most important model classes for stationary processes, and addresses the structure of AR, ARMA and state space systems, Yule-Walker equations, factorization of rational spectral densities and Kalman filtering. Finally, there is a discussion of Granger causality, linear dynamic factor models and (G)ARCH models. The book provides a solid basis for advanced mathematics students and researchers in fields such as data-driven modeling, forecasting and filtering, which are important in statistics, control engineering, financial mathematics, econometrics and signal processing, among other subjects.
Author: Giovanni Petris Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 0387772383 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 258
Book Description
State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.
Author: Marianna Bolla Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000392392 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 318
Book Description
This book gives a brief survey of the theory of multidimensional (multivariate), weakly stationary time series, with emphasis on dimension reduction and prediction. Understanding the covered material requires a certain mathematical maturity, a degree of knowledge in probability theory, linear algebra, and also in real, complex and functional analysis. For this, the cited literature and the Appendix contain all necessary material. The main tools of the book include harmonic analysis, some abstract algebra, and state space methods: linear time-invariant filters, factorization of rational spectral densities, and methods that reduce the rank of the spectral density matrix. Serves to find analogies between classical results (Cramer, Wold, Kolmogorov, Wiener, Kálmán, Rozanov) and up-to-date methods for dimension reduction in multidimensional time series Provides a unified treatment for time and frequency domain inferences by using machinery of complex and harmonic analysis, spectral and Smith--McMillan decompositions. Establishes analogies between the time and frequency domain notions and calculations Discusses the Wold's decomposition and the Kolmogorov's classification together, by distinguishing between different types of singularities. Understanding the remote past helps us to characterize the ideal situation where there is a regular part at present. Examples and constructions are also given Establishes a common outline structure for the state space models, prediction, and innovation algorithms with unified notions and principles, which is applicable to real-life high frequency time series It is an ideal companion for graduate students studying the theory of multivariate time series and researchers working in this field.
Author: Francis X. Diebold Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0199338329 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 285
Book Description
Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.
Author: Siem Jan Koopman Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing ISBN: 1785603523 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 685
Book Description
This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
Author: Raquel Prado Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1439882754 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 375
Book Description
Focusing on Bayesian approaches and computations using simulation-based methods for inference, Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference integrates mainstream approaches for time series modeling with significant recent developments in methodology and applications of time series analysis. It encompasses a graduate-level account of Bayesian t
Author: Marc Hallin
Author: Marc Hallin
Author: Jörg Breitung
Author: Michael P. Clements
Author: Manfred Deistler
Author: Giovanni Petris
Author: Matteo Barigozzi
Author: Marianna Bolla
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Author: Siem Jan Koopman
Author: Raquel Prado