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Author: R. Prost Publisher: Lulu.com ISBN: 9781716568213 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 150
Book Description
Conditional variance models are appropriate for time series that do not exhibit significant autocorrelation, but are serially dependent. For modeling time series that are both autocorrelated and serially dependent, you can consider using a composite conditional mean and variance model. Two characteristics of financial time series that conditional variance models address are: Volatility clustering and Leverage effects. Volatility is the conditional standard deviation of a time series. Autocorrelation in the conditional variance process results in volatility clustering. The GARCH model and its variants model autoregression in the variance series. Leverage effects. The volatility of some time series responds more to large decreases than to large increases. This asymmetric clustering behavior is known as the leverage effect. The EGARCH and GJR models have leverage terms to model this asymmetry. In this book a variety of examples are presented, all of them treated with MATLAB.
Author: R. Prost Publisher: Lulu.com ISBN: 9781716568213 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 150
Book Description
Conditional variance models are appropriate for time series that do not exhibit significant autocorrelation, but are serially dependent. For modeling time series that are both autocorrelated and serially dependent, you can consider using a composite conditional mean and variance model. Two characteristics of financial time series that conditional variance models address are: Volatility clustering and Leverage effects. Volatility is the conditional standard deviation of a time series. Autocorrelation in the conditional variance process results in volatility clustering. The GARCH model and its variants model autoregression in the variance series. Leverage effects. The volatility of some time series responds more to large decreases than to large increases. This asymmetric clustering behavior is known as the leverage effect. The EGARCH and GJR models have leverage terms to model this asymmetry. In this book a variety of examples are presented, all of them treated with MATLAB.
Author: Perez M. Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform ISBN: 9781534845459 Category : Languages : en Pages : 204
Book Description
Econometrics Toolbox(TM) provides functions for modeling economic data. You can select and calibrate economic models for simulation and forecasting. For time series modeling and analysis, the toolbox includes univariate ARMAX/GARCH composite models with several GARCH variants, multivariate VARMAX models, and cointegration analysis. This book focuses on conditional variance models. Conditional variance models attempt to address volatility clustering in univariate time series models to improve parameter estimates and forecast accuracy. To model volatility, Econometrics Toolbox(TM) supports the standard generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH/GARCH) model, the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, and the Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle (GJR) model.
Author: Gebhard Kirchgässner Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642334350 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 326
Book Description
This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series, bridging the gap between methods and realistic applications. It presents the most important approaches to the analysis of time series, which may be stationary or nonstationary. Modelling and forecasting univariate time series is the starting point. For multiple stationary time series, Granger causality tests and vector autogressive models are presented. As the modelling of nonstationary uni- or multivariate time series is most important for real applied work, unit root and cointegration analysis as well as vector error correction models are a central topic. Tools for analysing nonstationary data are then transferred to the panel framework. Modelling the (multivariate) volatility of financial time series with autogressive conditional heteroskedastic models is also treated.
Author: Mara Prez Publisher: CreateSpace ISBN: 9781502348050 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 204
Book Description
MATLAB Econometrics Toolbox provides functions for modeling economic data You can select and calibrate economic models for simulation and forecasting Time series capabilities include univariate ARMAX/GARCH composite models with several GARCH variants, multivariate VARMAX models, and cointegration analysis The toolbox provides Monte Carlo methods for simulating systems of linear and nonlinear stochastic differential equations and a variety of diagnostics for model selection, including hypothesis, unit root, and stationarity tests.This book develops, among others, the following topics Conditional Variance Models GARCH Model Specify GARCH Models Using garch GARCH Model Specifications GARCH Model with a Mean Offset GARCH Model with Nonconsecutive Lags GARCH Model with Known Parameter Values GARCH Model with a t Innovation Distributio EGARCH Model Specify EGARCH Models Using egarch EGARCH Model Specifications EGARCH Model with a Mean Offset EGARCH Model with Nonconsecutive Lags EGARCH Model with Known Parameter Values EGARCH Model with a t Innovation Distribution GJR Model Specify GJR Models Using gjr GJR Model Specifications GJR Model with a Mean Offset GJR Model with Nonconsecutive Lags GJR Model with Known Parameter Values GJR Model with a t Innovation Distribution Modify Properties of Conditional Variance Model Objects Specify the Conditional Variance Model Innovation Distribution Specify a Conditional Variance Model Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Conditional Variance Models Innovation Distribution Loglikelihood Functions Conditional Variance Model Estimation with Equality Constraints Presample Data for Conditional Variance Model EstimationInitial Values for Conditional Variance Model Estimation Optimization Settings for Conditional Variance Model Estimation Conditional Variance Model Constraints Infer Conditional Variances and Residuals Likelihood Ratio Test for Conditional Variance Models Compare Conditional Variance Models Using Information Criteria Monte Carlo Simulation of Conditional Variance Models Presample Data for Conditional Variance Model Simulation Simulate GARCH Models Assess the EGARCH Forecast Bias Using Simulations Simulate Conditional Variance Model Monte Carlo Forecasting of Conditional Variance Models MMSE Forecasting of Conditional Variance Models EGARCH MMSE Forecasts Forecast GJR Models Forecast Conditional Variance Model Including an Exogenous Regression Component ARMAX Model Specifying ARMAX Models Using garchset Maximum Likelihood Estimation Initial Parameter Values for Optimization GARCHFIT Examples Estimation Presample Data GARCHSIM Examples Simulation Presample Data MMSE Forecasting GARCHPRED Examples
Author: Terence C. Mills Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521405744 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 392
Book Description
The application of time series techniques in economics has become increasingly important, both for forecasting purposes and in the empirical analysis of time series in general. In this book, Terence Mills not only brings together recent research at the frontiers of the subject, but also analyses the areas of most importance to applied economics. It is an up-to-date text which extends the basic techniques of analysis to cover the development of methods that can be used to analyse a wide range of economic problems. The book analyses three basic areas of time series analysis: univariate models, multivariate models, and non-linear models. In each case the basic theory is outlined and then extended to cover recent developments. Particular emphasis is placed on applications of the theory to important areas of applied economics and on the computer software and programs needed to implement the techniques. This book clearly distinguishes itself from its competitors by emphasising the techniques of time series modelling rather than technical aspects such as estimation, and by the breadth of the models considered. It features many detailed real-world examples using a wide range of actual time series. It will be useful to econometricians and specialists in forecasting and finance and accessible to most practitioners in economics and the allied professions.
Author: A. Smith Publisher: ISBN: 9781979613514 Category : Languages : en Pages : 142
Book Description
Econometrics Toolbox provides functions for modeling economic data. You can select and estimate economic models for simulation and forecasting. For time series modeling and analysis, the toolbox includes univariate Bayesian linear regression, univariate ARIMAX/GARCH composite models with several GARCH variants, multivariate VARX models, and cointegration analysis. It also provides methods for modeling economic systems using state-space models and for estimating using the Kalman filter. You can use a variety of diagnostics for model selection, including hypothesis tests, unit root,stationarity, and structural change.Two characteristics of financial time series that conditional variance models address are:* Volatility clustering. Volatility is the conditional standard deviation of a time series. Autocorrelation in the conditional variance process results in volatility clustering. The GARCH model and its variants model autoregression in the variance series.* Leverage effects. The volatility of some time series responds more to large decreases than to large increases. This asymmetric clustering behavior is known as the leverage effect. The EGARCH and GJR models have leverage terms to model this asymmetry.The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model is an extension of Engle's ARCH model for variance heteroscedasticity. If a series exhibits volatility clustering, this suggests that past variances might be predictive of the current variance. The GARCH(P,Q) model is an autoregressive moving average model for conditional variances, with P GARCH coefficients associated with lagged variances, and Q ARCH coefficients associated with lagged squared innovations.The exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model is a GARCH variant that models the logarithm of the conditional variance process. In addition to modeling the logarithm, the EGARCH model has additional leverage terms to capture asymmetry in volatility clustering. The EGARCH(P,Q) model has P GARCH coefficients associated with lagged log variance terms, Q ARCH coefficients associated with the magnitude of lagged standardized innovations, and Q leverage coefficients associated with signed, lagged standardized innovations.The GJR model is a GARCH variant that includes leverage terms for modeling asymmetric volatility clustering. In the GJR formulation, large negative changes are more likely to be clustered than positive changes. The GJR model is named for Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle. Close similarities exist between the GJR model and the threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model-a GJR model is a recursive equation for the variance process, and a TGARCH is the same recursion applied to the standard deviation process. The GJR(P,Q) model has P GARCH coefficients associated with lagged variances, Q ARCH coefficients associated with lagged squared innovations, and Q leverage coefficients associated with the square of negative lagged innovations.This book develops ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH and GJR time series models.
Author: Thomas B. Fomby Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing ISBN: 0762312742 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 407
Book Description
Talks about the time varying betas of the capital asset pricing model, analysis of predictive densities of nonlinear models of stock returns, modelling multivariate dynamic correlations, flexible seasonal time series models, estimation of long-memory time series models, application of the technique of boosting in volatility forecasting, and more.
Author: Eric Zivot Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 0387217630 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 632
Book Description
The field of financial econometrics has exploded over the last decade This book represents an integration of theory, methods, and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics. This is the first book to show the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data. It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance. Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts. This Second Edition is updated to cover S+FinMetrics 2.0 and includes new chapters on copulas, nonlinear regime switching models, continuous-time financial models, generalized method of moments, semi-nonparametric conditional density models, and the efficient method of moments. Eric Zivot is an associate professor and Gary Waterman Distinguished Scholar in the Economics Department, and adjunct associate professor of finance in the Business School at the University of Washington. He regularly teaches courses on econometric theory, financial econometrics and time series econometrics, and is the recipient of the Henry T. Buechel Award for Outstanding Teaching. He is an associate editor of Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. He has published papers in the leading econometrics journals, including Econometrica, Econometric Theory, the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Econometrics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics. Jiahui Wang is an employee of Ronin Capital LLC. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Washington in 1997. He has published in leading econometrics journals such as Econometrica and Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, and is the Principal Investigator of National Science Foundation SBIR grants. In 2002 Dr. Wang was selected as one of the "2000 Outstanding Scholars of the 21st Century" by International Biographical Centre.
Author: Evžen Kočenda Publisher: Charles University in Prague, Karolinum Press ISBN: 8024631997 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 220
Book Description
This book presents the numerous tools for the econometric analysis of time series. The text is designed with emphasis on the practical application of theoretical tools. Accordingly, material is presented in a way that is easy to understand. In many cases intuitive explanation and understanding of the studied phenomena are offerd. Essential concepts are illustrated by clear-cut examples. The attention of readers is drawn to numerous applied works where the use of specific techniques is best illustrated. Such applications are chiefly connected with issues of recent economic transition and European integration. The outlined style of presentation makes the book also a rich source of references. The text is divided into five major sections. The first section, “The Nature of Time Series”, gives an introduction to time series analysis. The second section, “Difference Equations”, describes briefly the theory of difference equations with an emphasis on results that are important for time series econometrics. The third section, “Univariate Time Series”, presents the methods commonly used in univariate time series analysis, the analysis of time series of one single variable. The fourth section, “Multiple Time Series”, deals with time series models of multiple interrelated variables. The fifth section “Panel Data and Unit Root Tests”, deals with methods known as panel unit root tests that are relevant to issues of convergence. Appendices contain an introduction to simulation techniques and statistical tables. Kniha přináší soubor základních i pokročilých technik a postupů používaných v ekonometrické analýze časových řad. Kniha klade důraz na umožnění efektivního použití popsaných technik v aplikovaném ekonomickém výzkumu. Toho je dosaženo tím, že teoretické základy popsané ekonometrie jsou prezentovány spolu s intuitivním vysvětlením problematiky a jednotlivé techniky jsou ilustrovány na výsledcích současného výzkumu a to především v kontextu procesu nedávné ekonomické transformace a současné evropské integrace. Toto pojetí z knihy činí nejen učebnici v klasickém smyslu, ale také užitečný referenční zdroj neboť odkazy v knize spojují klasickou i moderní ekonometrickou literaturu se soudobými aplikacemi, na nichž je použití jednotlivých technik jasně pochopitelné. Mnohá použití vycházejí z bohaté předchozí práce autorů v oboru. Text knihy je rozdělen do pěti hlavních částí. První část, “The Nature of Time Series”, přináší úvod do analýzy časových řad a popis jejich nejdůležitějších charakteristik, vlastností a procesů. Druhá část, “Difference Equations”, stručně popisuje teorii diferenciálních rovnic s důrazem na aspekty, které jsou klíčové v ekonometrii časových řad. Třetí část, “Univariate Time Series”, poměrně rozsáhle popisuje techniky, které se používají při analýze jednotlivých časových řad bez jejich vzájemené interakce a zahrnuje jak lineární tak nelineární modelované struktury. Čtvrtá část, “Multiple Time Series”, popisuje modely které umožňují analýzu několika časových řad a jejich vzájemných interakcí. Pátá část “Panel Data and Unit Root Tests”, zahrnuje některé techniky postavené na panelových datech, jež k průřezovým datům přidávají časovou dimenzi a vztahují se k analýze konvergence. Závěr knihy je doplněn o úvod do simulační techniky a statistické tabulky
Author: R. Prost
Author: R. Prost
Author: Perez M.
Author: Gebhard Kirchgässner
Author: Mara Prez
Author: Terence C. Mills
Author: A. Smith
Author: Thomas B. Fomby
Author: Eric Zivot
Author: Philip Hans Franses
Author: Evžen Kočenda