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Author: Marieh Marieh Azizirad Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
To answer the question of whether an interest rate hike causes inflation to increase or decrease, I estimate a liquidity-augmented empirical model of interest rates, inflation, and growth on postwar US data, using three methods: a time-varying structural vector autoregression, a system of latent variables, and a structural vector autoregression with doubtful identifying assumptions. I find that an interest rate hike has a short-run non-positive effect on inflation, regardless of its duration. This result contrasts with the Neo-Fisherian prediction of a positive short-run response of inflation to a permanent shift in interest rates. At the same time, inflation and the nominal interest rate move in the same direction in the long-run, although not one-for-one. I also find that the short- and long-run interactions of macroeconomic variables including inflation and the interest and growth rates have changed across eras from the 1950s to 2016. Finally, the results reinforce the importance of the liquidity premium on near-money assets in macroeconomic analyses.
Author: Marieh Marieh Azizirad Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
To answer the question of whether an interest rate hike causes inflation to increase or decrease, I estimate a liquidity-augmented empirical model of interest rates, inflation, and growth on postwar US data, using three methods: a time-varying structural vector autoregression, a system of latent variables, and a structural vector autoregression with doubtful identifying assumptions. I find that an interest rate hike has a short-run non-positive effect on inflation, regardless of its duration. This result contrasts with the Neo-Fisherian prediction of a positive short-run response of inflation to a permanent shift in interest rates. At the same time, inflation and the nominal interest rate move in the same direction in the long-run, although not one-for-one. I also find that the short- and long-run interactions of macroeconomic variables including inflation and the interest and growth rates have changed across eras from the 1950s to 2016. Finally, the results reinforce the importance of the liquidity premium on near-money assets in macroeconomic analyses.
Author: Seungduck Lee Publisher: ISBN: 9780355150650 Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This dissertation analyzes the determinants of asset prices and the effect of monetary policy on not only asset prices, but also on other macroeconomic outcomes such as asset market trade volume and welfare in an environment with search frictions. The analysis in such an environment helps to examine an important component of determining asset prices: liquidity, which is assets' ability to facilitate transactions. Hence, the dissertation particularly examines the effect of monetary policy on asset prices that the traditional asset pricing models without search frictions may be missing, and also explain some phenomena which are often considered abnormal in macroeconomics and international macroeconomics such as negative nominal yields and the Uncovered Interest Parity puzzle. The dissertation consists of three stand-alone papers and I provide their abstracts as follows. The first chapter is "Money, Asset Prices and the Liquidity Premium". This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the market value of the liquidity services that financial assets provide, known as the liquidity premium. Money supply and nominal interest rates have positive effects on the liquidity premium, but asset supply has a negative effect. This implies that liquid financial assets aresubstantive substitutes for money, and that the opportunity cost of holding money plays a key role in explaining variation in the liquidity premium and thus in asset prices. The higher cost of holding money due to higher money growth rates leads to a higher liquidity premium. My empirical analysis with U.S. Treasury data over the period from 1946 and 2008 confirms the theoretical predictions. The theory also suggests that the liquidity properties of assets can cause negative nominal yields when the cost of holding money is low and liquid assets are scarce. I present empirical findings in the U.S. and Switzerland to support this prediction. The second chapter is a joint paper with Kuk Mo Jung, titled "A Liquidity-Based Resolution of the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle". In this paper, a new monetary theory is set out to resolve the "Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP)" Puzzle. It explores the possibility that liquidity properties of money and nominal bonds can account for the puzzle. A key concept in our model is that nominal bondscarry liquidity premia due to their medium of exchange role as either collateral or a means of payment. In this framework, no-arbitrage ensures a positive comovement of real return on money and nominal bonds. Thus, when inflation in one country becomes relatively lower, i.e., real return on this currency is relatively higher, its nominal bonds should also yield higher real return. We show that their nominal returns can also become higher under the economic environment where collateral pledgeability and/or liquidity of nominal bonds and/or collateralized credit based transactions are relatively bigger. Since a currency with lower inflation is expected to appreciate, the high interest currency does indeed appreciate in this case, i.e., the UIP puzzle is no longer an anomaly in our model. Our liquidity based theory can in fact help understanding many empirical observations that risk based explanations find difficult to reconcile with. The third chapter is joint work with Athanasios Geromichalos, Jiwon Lee, and Keita Oikawa, titled "Over-the-Counter Trade and the Value of Assets as Collateral" and was published in Economic Theory in 2016. We study asset pricing within a general equilibrium model where unsecured credit is ruled out, and a real asset helps agents carry out mutually benecial transactions by serving as collateral. A unique feature of our model is that the agent who provides the loan might have a low valuation for the collateral asset. Nevertheless, the lender rationally chooses to accept the collateral because she can access a secondary asset market where she can sell the asset. Following a recent strand of the finance literature, based on the influential work of Duffie, Garleanu, and Pedersen (2005), we model this secondary asset market as an over-the-counter market characterized by search and bargaining frictions. We study how the asset's property to serve as collateral affects its equilibrium price, and how the asset price and the economy's welfare are affected by the degree of liquidity in the secondary asset market.
Author: Alan Picard Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 165
Book Description
Abstract This dissertation consists of three essays. My first paper re-examines the link between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns for a large sample of firms in both developed and emerging markets. Recent studies using Fama-French three factor models have shown a negative relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns for developed markets. This relationship has not been studied to date for emerging markets. This study relates the current-month’s idiosyncratic volatility to the subsequent month’s returns for a sample of both developed and emerging markets expanding benchmark factors by including both a momentum and a systematic liquidity risk component. My second essay contributes to the important literature on the topic of the small capitalization stocks historical outperformance over large capitalization stocks by investigating the hypothesis that the small firm premium is related to macroeconomic and financial variables and that relationship is driven by the economic cycle in the United States and Canada. More specifically, this study employs recent advances in nonlinear time series models to explore the relationship between the small firm premium, and financial and macroeconomic variables in the Canadian and U.S. economies. My third paper re-examines the findings of a recent research paper that suggested that market wide liquidity may act as a leading indicator to the economic cycle. Using several liquidity measures and various macroeconomic variables to proxy for the economic conditions, the paper presents evidence that stock market liquidity could forecast business cycles: A major decrease in the overall level of market liquidity could indicate weak economic growth in the subsequent months. However, the drawback in the analysis is that the relationship is investigated in a linear approach even though it has been proven that most macroeconomic variables follow non-linear dynamics. Employing similar liquidity measures and macroeconomic proxies, and two popular econometrics models that account for non-linear behavior, this study hence re-investigates the relationship between stock market liquidity and business cycles.
Author: Fatih Tuluk Publisher: ISBN: Category : Electronic dissertations Languages : en Pages : 138
Book Description
My essays that are captured in two chapters of my dissertation focus on shadow banking system, collateralized debt arrangement and monetary policy. The first chapter studies the role of shadow banking in the recent financial crisis, the relationship between shadow banking and traditional banking, and it investigates the monetary policy reaction to overcome the financial frictions associated with the scarcity of collateral or shortages of safe assets that naturally led to the liquidity constraints. On the other hand, the second chapter studies the role of housing as a collateral or as a medium of exchange and it explores how the private liquidity, in the context of home-equity loans, and public liquidity work together to overcome the limited commitment frictions. In the first chapter, a Lagos-Wright model with costly-state verification and delegated monitoring financial intermediation, and a risk-sharing framework of banking is constructed. Lack of memory and limited commitment imply collateralized credit arrangements. In contrast to the traditional banking system, shadow banking system is not subject to the capital requirements. The relative use of shadow funded credit versus traditional bank loans entails the advantages of working outside the oversight of the bank regulations, but drawbacks of having information and transactions cost in funding entrepreneurs. I have five main findings: First, an entrepreneurial credit can help address the need for collateral. Second, the shadow funded credit shifts from risky to safer borrowers and loan creation capacity of the shadow banking sector shrinks when the economic outlook gets worse. Third, the traditional bank can fulfill the role of providing credit that shadow banks had played before the crisis, but can do it only to a certain extent. Fourth, to the extent that collateral backed by entrepreneurial credit mitigates the limited commitment friction in the traditional banking sector, the optimal monetary policy shifts nominal interest rate towards zero lower bound. Lastly, the quantitative easing program can be welfare increasing by reinforcing the shadow funded credit versus traditional banking lending if the credit frictions in the shadow banking sector are sufficiently small. The second chapter studies the role of home-equity loan and government debt in an environment with financial frictions. I construct a Lagos-Wright model in which private transactions must be secured under limited commitment and lack of record-keeping. Housing can be useful to support credit since it serves as collateral. It also gives direct utility as shelter and serves as a medium of exchange when the economy is inefficient. I show that when there is no efficiency loss due to exchange of housing, posting collateral is not optimal since collateralizable wealth is limited. In the state of efficiency loss, the collateral might be useful and the asset therefore bears a liquidity premium. However, once collateral becomes scarce - as it did during the financial crisis- then it amplifies the frictions and the buyer trades the asset to make up for the weak incentives associated with collateral. I show that the world is always non-Ricardian and therefore government debt implies higher welfare. As well, government debt enhances the private debt to the extent that posting collateral is always optimal. In equilibrium, full pledgeability of private collateral, in addition to government debt, completely rules out the efficiency loss arising from exchange of asset. Money and private banks are introduced. I show that as inflation imposes a tax on consumption, interest rate on cash loans imposes a tax on housing collateral. Finally, an increase in inflation raises the housing price near Friedman Rule.
Author: Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1317560817 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 169
Book Description
The 2008 international crisis has revived the interest in Keynes’s theories and, in particular, on Minsky’s models of financial fragility. The core proposition of these theories is that money plays an essential role in modern economies, which is usually neglected in other approaches. This is Keynes’s liquidity preference theory, which is also the foundation for Minsky’s model, a theory that has been largely forgotten in recent years. This book looks at liquidity preference theory and its most important problems, showing how one should understand the role of money in modern monetary economies. It develops Keynes’s and Minsky’s financial view of money, relating it to the process of capital accumulation, the determination of effective demand and the theory of output, and employment as a whole. Building on the author’s significant body of work in the field, this book delves into a broad range of topics allowing the general reader to understand propositions that have been mistreated in the literature including Keynes and the concept of monetary production economy; uncertainty, expectations and money; short and long period; liquidity preference theory as a theory of asset pricing under uncertainty; asset prices and capital accumulation; Keynes’s version of the principle of effective demand; and the role of macroeconomic policy. It will be essential reading for all students and scholars of Post-Keynesian economics.
Author: Jan A. Kregel Publisher: Anthem Press ISBN: 1839990341 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 254
Book Description
The title of this book may seem to confuse two separate disciplines – finance and macroeconomics. However, it is based on the fact that finance and macroeconomics were integrated, at least in their formative years. It is a natural extension of a line of research that dominated monetary theory in the early part of the 20th century. Economists such as Keynes, Robertson, Hawtrey, Fisher, Hayek, and Schumpeter sought to blend the analysis of business cycles with their (often first-hand) experience of money and financial markets. The result was a monetary theory that provided the fertile background to what came to be called macroeconomics. However, in the post-war period, the monetary aspects of this theory dropped out of sight in the neo-classical synthesis and hydraulic Keynesianism. Post-Keynesians such as Davidson and Minsky have done much to try to restore the monetary aspects of the theory, but the other – more technical– aspects of financial analysis have been ignored. This book aims to show how technical aspects of financial were initially part of the early investigations of macroeconomics and how they may be used to provide a realistic analysis of the behavior of modern financial economies.
Author: Marieh Marieh Azizirad
Author: Marieh Marieh Azizirad
Author: Seungduck Lee
Author: Shiu-Sheng Chen
Author: Alan Picard
Author: Fatih Tuluk
Author: Eric Neis
Author: Reuben A. Kessel
Author: Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho
Author: Jan A. Kregel
Author: