Author: Sara Alizadeh MiyandoabPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Three Essays on Non-linear Effects in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models
Author: Sara Alizadeh MiyandoabThree Essays on the Solution and Estimation of Dynamic Macroeconomic Models
Author: Anthony Alan SmithPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Equilibrium (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 342
Book Description
Essays in Macroeconomics and Nonlinear Dynamics
Author: Matthias Christian RottnerPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finance
Languages : en
Pages : 189
Book Description
This thesis investigates topics in macroeconomics with nonlinear dynamics as their inherent feature. It aims to further the understanding of the connection between the financial sector and economic fluctuations, challenges of monetary policy in a low interest rate environment and how to mitigate the macroeconomic consequences of a pandemic. The first chapter investigates the connection between the shadow banking sector and the vulnerability of the economy to a financial crisis. Motivated by the build-up of shadow bank leverage prior to the Great Recession, I develop a nonlinear macroeconomic model that features excessive leverage accumulation and show how this can cause a run. Introducing risk-shifting incentives to account for fluctuations in shadow bank leverage, I use the model to illustrate that extensive leverage makes the shadow banking system runnable, thereby raising the vulnerability of the economy to future financial crises. The model is taken to U.S. data with the objective of estimating the probability of a run in the years preceding the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The second chapter, joint with Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi, is motivated by the observation that the Federal Reserve Bank has been systematically undershooting its 2% inflation target in the past twenty years. This deflationary bias is a predictable consequence of the current symmetric monetary policy strategy that fails to recognize the risk of encountering the zero-lower-bound. An asymmetric rule according to which the central bank responds less aggressively to above-target inflation corrects the bias, improves welfare, and reduces the risk of deflationary spirals. The third chapter, joint with Matthieu Darracq Paries and Christoffer Kok, analyses the risk that an intended monetary policy accommodation might actually have contractionary effects in a low interest rate environment. We demonstrate that the risk of hitting the rate at which the effect reverses depends on the capitalization of the banking sector by using a nonlinear macroeconomic model. The framework suggests that the reversal interest rate is around −1% p.a. in the Euro Area. We show that the possibility of the reversal interest rate creates a novel motive for macroprudential policy. The fourth chapter, joint with Leonardo Melosi, studies contact tracing in a new macro-epidemiological model with asymptomatic spreaders. Contact tracing is a testing strategy that aims to reconstruct the infection chain of newly symptomatic agents. We show that contact tracing may be insufficient to stem the spread of infections because agents fail to internalize that their decisions increase the number of traceable contacts to be tested in the future. We provide theoretical underpinnings to the risk of becoming infected in macro-epidemiological models.
Essays on the Solution, Estimation, and Analysis of Dynamic Nonlinear Economic Models
Author: Xiongwen RuiNonlinear Economic Dynamics and Financial Modelling
Author: Roberto DieciPublisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319074709
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 384
Book Description
This book reflects the state of the art on nonlinear economic dynamics, financial market modelling and quantitative finance. It contains eighteen papers with topics ranging from disequilibrium macroeconomics, monetary dynamics, monopoly, financial market and limit order market models with boundedly rational heterogeneous agents to estimation, time series modelling and empirical analysis and from risk management of interest-rate products, futures price volatility and American option pricing with stochastic volatility to evaluation of risk and derivatives of electricity market. The book illustrates some of the most recent research tools in these areas and will be of interest to economists working in economic dynamics and financial market modelling, to mathematicians who are interested in applying complexity theory to economics and finance and to market practitioners and researchers in quantitative finance interested in limit order, futures and electricity market modelling, derivative pricing and risk management.
Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics, Finance and the Social Sciences
Author: Gian Italo BischiPublisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783642424533
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Over the last two decades there has been a great deal of research into nonlinear dynamic models in economics, finance and the social sciences. This book contains twenty papers that range over very recent applications in these areas. Topics covered include structural change and economic growth, disequilibrium dynamics and economic policy as well as models with boundedly rational agents. The book illustrates some of the most recent research tools in this area and will be of interest to economists working in economic dynamics and to mathematicians interested in seeing ideas from nonlinear dynamics and complexity theory applied to the economic sciences.
Essays on Nonlinear Macroeconomic Dynamics
Author: Luigi BocolaThree Essays on Time-Series Macroeconomics
Author: Pedro H. AlbuquerquePublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
The first two chapters of this thesis propose new time-series methods and apply them to macroeconomic problems, while the third chapter evaluates the predictions of a dynamic general equilibrium model. The first chapter develops a practical log-linear aggregation procedure, which is applied to the heterogeneous growth problem in the U.S. The second chapter presents a simple nonparametric long-run correlation estimator with optimal lag-selection and alignment criteria, and uses it to measure interconnections between American and Latin-American stock returns. The third chapter uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of bank account debits taxation. Time-series techniques are employed to empirically evaluate the model predictions. In the first chapter, a practical aggregation method for heterogeneous log-linear functions is presented. Inequality measures are employed in the construction of an exact representation of the aggregate behavior of an economy formed by heterogeneous log-linear agents. The exact aggregate representation is relatively simple and intuitive. It can be used thereafter in applied issues and in teaching, easing the solving and understanding of aggregation problems. Three macroeconomic applications are discussed: the aggregation of the Lucas supply function, the time-inconsistent behavior of an egalitarian social planner facing heterogeneous discount rates, and the case of a simple heterogeneous growth model. The latter application, which leads to a decomposition of growth rates of the mean into means of growth rates plus inequality changes, is explored empirically. Aggregate CPS data is used to show that, when inequality changes are taken in consideration, the slowdown that followed the first oil shock appears to be worse than usually thought. Additionally, the “new economy” growth resurgence seems less impressive when compared to the growth performance of the period that preceded the first oil shock. In the second chapter, a simple consistent nonparametric estimator of the long-run correlation between two variables is proposed, based on the estimation of the bivariate k-lag difference correlation. It is shown that the estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the Bartlett kernel spectral estimator of the complex coherency at frequency zero. The asymptotic distribution is derived, with a test for the absence of long-run correlation. Optimal lag-selection and alignment criteria are presented. Monte Carlo experiments show that the asymptotic approximations are satisfactory, sometimes even for small samples. They also reveal that the lag-selection and alignment criteria are effective. Long-run correlations between American and Latin-American stock returns are considered. The estimates increase substantially in the second half of the nineties. The results could indicate the presence of a correlation component common to Latin-American markets, which was important in the second half of the period but not in the first. The significant development of investment funds specialized in Latin-American markets and the much-improved foreign access after capital account liberalization in the region may be among the explanations for these patterns. The third chapter uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to study the economic effects of bank account debits (BAD) taxation. Australia and various Latin-American countries have levied or levy BAD taxes. Theoretical aspects such as tax cascading, financial disintermediation, market illiquidity, impacts on dividend and interest rates, tax revenue, government deficit, and effective rates on final transactions are considered. The Brazilian BAD tax (CPMF) experience is evaluated. The empirical analysis shows that revenue productivity appears to be very sensitive to the tax rate, engendering a Laffer curve. It is also shown that there may be impacts on real interest rates. Part of the BAD tax revenue can be lost due to increased interest payments on government debt. Furthermore, the deadweight losses seem to be significant if compared to revenues. Theory and evidence indicate that the BAD acronym is perhaps more than a witticism.
Three Essays on Nonlinear Nonstationary Econometrics and Applied Macroeconomics
Author: Youngsoo BaeDynamic Modeling, Empirical Macroeconomics, and Finance
Author: Lucas BernardPublisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783319819891
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 325
Book Description
This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.