Author: D M Jagath Rohitha Dissanayake Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Motivated by recent food price spikes, this thesis examines three issues relating to international prices of agricultural commodities. It focuses on the three most important food commodities in the world from a calorie viewpoint, namely wheat, rice and maize. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter 2 presents an overview of the determinants of agricultural commodity prices. Chapter 3 analyses political economy causes of trade policy interventions in response to commodity price spikes to reveal why governments alter trade interventions in order to cushion domestic prices from external shocks. To examine how much countries insulate their domestic markets from international markets, Chapter 4 estimates price transmission elasticities for wheat, rice and maize by employing a novel estimation approach. The first essay (Chapter 2) probes demand and supply shocks in global grain markets. Using annual data from 1961 to 2012, price fluctuations for wheat, rice and maize are decomposed into three components: supply shocks, demand shocks and other shocks. The ""other shocks"" here include policy responses of some governments, such as export restrictions and panic purchases when prices spike upwards. The chapter estimates how much each of these shocks contributed to the evolution of grain prices during the last half century. The results suggest that supply and demand shocks have contributed very little to price fluctuations, compared to other shocks. The other shocks seem to have exacerbated exogenous price rises due to a supply shortfall, particularly in periods when prices spike. The second essay (Chapter 3) studies the implications of reference dependence and loss aversion features of individual preferences in trade policy determination and shows that these behavioural features help explain why governments change their trade restrictiveness in order to cushion domestic prices from international price shocks. We show that this change comes irrespective of whether special interest groups are lobbying the government. Using a global dataset on agricultural price distortions, we find the available empirical evidence is consistent with our model predictions. The empirical evidence further suggests that governments' reactions to international prices are stronger for staple food items than for non-staples. A voluminous literature has estimated price transmission from international to domestic markets, ignoring unobserved common factors that affect all domestic markets. In the third essay (Chapter 4), this thesis estimates long-run and short-run transmission elasticities of world commodity price shocks to domestic markets using a framework that takes into consideration common factors that are correlated with regressors. The estimates are based on an annual panel dataset for rice, wheat and maize for both developed and developing countries over the period 1960-2007. The results from the common factor framework are compared to those that do not account for common factors. The findings suggest price transmission elasticities for rice, wheat and maize are around 0.4, 0.5 and 0.75 respectively. The findings suggest that ignoring common factors is likely to result in upwardly biased estimates of price transmission elasticities. The final chapter of the thesis (Chapter 5) contains a summary of the findings of the three main chapters in the thesis.
Author: Randall Stace Romero-Aguilar Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 95
Book Description
Abstract: During the Global Food Price Crisis of 2007-2011, millions of people suffered hunger because food had become too expensive. To cope with this problem, the governments of several countries implemented policies to decouple the food prices in their domestic markets from prices in the international market or, at least, to provide assistance to the most vulnerable. Two of the most usual tools employed by governments trying to control prices were the restriction of food exports and the establishment and operation of food reserves, both of them seeking to increase the domestic supply of food in times of crisis. The three essays in this dissertation investigate the potential benefits and shortcoming of these policies.
Author: Sahar Farid Yousef Publisher: ISBN: Category : Agriculture Languages : en Pages : 384
Book Description
In the second essay, I examine whether experiencing a drought exacerbates the effect of an increase in staple food prices on urban and rural social unrest in Africa and whether liberalizing trade in staple foods mitigates this effect. I use an instrumental variable model to study the impact on social unrest of a change in domestic food prices while experiencing a drought with and without trade liberalization. I use data on anti-government demonstrations from the Social Conflict Analysis Database (SCAD) along with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the domestic and international staple food prices from the FAO, and tariff data from UNCTAD. I find that an increase in staple food prices while experiencing drought increases social unrest in urban areas and reduces it in rural areas; liberalizing trade in staple foods reduces both effects.
Author: Tjalling C. Koopmans Publisher: Martino Fine Books ISBN: 9781614273868 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 244
Book Description
2012 Reprint of 1957 Edition. Exact facsimile of the original edition, not reproduced with Optical Recognition Software. Tjalling Charles Koopmans (1910 - 1985) was the joint winner, with Leonid Kantorovich, of the 1975 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. In 1944 Koopmans joined the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics at the University of Chicago, where he extended his technique to a wide variety of economic problems. When the commission was relocated to Yale University in 1955, Koopmans moved with it, becoming professor of economics at Yale. He wrote a widely read book on the methodology of economic analysis, "Three Essays on the State of Economic Science" in 1957. Essays are: Allocation of Resources and the Price System The Construction of Economic Knowledge The Interaction of Tools and Problems in Economics
Author: Bowen Chen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
International trade in agricultural and food commodities has grown rapidly during the past five decades, with increasingly more countries participating in the international mar- kets either as food importers or as food exporters. Despite the fast growth, international agricultural trade, however, is still largely affected by various policy distortions. This is especially the case in developing countries, in which opening to the international market is often perceived to be in conflict with their policy objectives of ensuring food security. In this context, this dissertation constitutes three essays toward better understanding of how international trade is affected by policy and how it can affect food security in developing countries. The first essay conducts a case study with quantitative analysis regarding the trade policy for grain commodities in China. Specifically, China emerged as a grain importing country in mid 2000s. In 2016, the U.S., a major grain exporter, launched a trade dispute against China at the World Trade Organization, arguing that China has been restricting its grain imports via tariff quota administration. Despite the criticism of the U.S., little do we know about the extent to which the grain imports in China were actually restricted by its trade policy, mainly because China's grain import behaviors have not been sufficiently studied. For instance, even the import demand elasticity, a key input into policy assessment, is unknown. To fill this gap in the literature, this article investigates impacts of the tariff quota administration on China's grain imports from its trading partners. We estimate import demand elasticity for each grain commodity using a source differentiated import demand model and then use the elasticity estimates to quantify the policy impacts on trade. In particular, the tariff quota administration is treated as a non tariff barrier and measured by ad valorem tariff equivalents in the model. We find that the tariff quota administration might have reduced the quota fill rates for the grain commodities by 10-35% during 2013-2017 in China, and that the wheat imports from the U.S. were largely negatively affected. We also find that the tariff quota administration acts like an import variable levy - its import restrictiveness varies negatively with world prices, leading to lower import demand elasticities. The second essay concerns the trade impacts on food price variability in developing countries. In particular, we are interested in this question: do food imports increase the variability of domestic food prices? The question matters because if imports destabilize domestic prices, storing crops for future consumption may prove an appealing strategy to cope with the adverse supply effects of a more unstable climate. Unfortunately, public storage has proven to be unsustainable due to the high costs of carrying crop inventories over time and the inability of policy planners to correctly forecast changes in domestic supply. In this context, it is important to understand the roles of both imports and stocks in affecting domestic food price variability. Using maize prices observed in 76 maize markets of 27 maize net importers across Africa, Asia and Latin America during 2000-2015, we find that, on average, a 1% increase in the ratio of imports to total consumption is correlated with a 0.29% reduction of the intra-annual coefficient of variation of maize prices; likewise a 1% increase in the amount of maize available in stocks at the beginning of the season is correlated with a 0.22% reduction in the said coefficient. We also find that climate-induced supply shocks toward mid-century may increase maize price variability in the focus countries by around 10%. These increases, however, could be offset with similar increases in the ratio of imports to total consumption or in the stock-to-use ratio at the beginning of the crop marketing year. The third essay also concerns the trade impacts on food price variability in developing countries. Rather than focusing on the roles of imports and stocks, we look into the effects of foreign yield shocks on domestic food price variability in this essay. Around two thirds of developing countries are now net food importers. While enjoying economical food in the international market, these countries have become increasingly more concerned that their food price stability is now vulnerable to foreign yield shocks, which are expected to grow in frequency and intensity in the future due to the climate change. Yet, the extent to which foreign yield shocks could affect food price stability in the food-importing countries have not been explicitly quantified in previous studies. This article aims to fill the gap by estimating the effects of foreign maize yield shocks on domestic maize price variability. We perform the analysis using price data of 74 maize markets in 24 net food-importing countries during 2000-2016. We find that positive foreign yield shocks have negative effects on domestic price variability, meaning that domestic prices become more stable under positive foreign yield shocks. Negative foreign yield shocks, however, do not have significant effects on domestic price variability, except for causing higher price variability in a few landlocked countries. We also find that domestic maize price variability could increase in the coming decades due to the increasing variability of maize yields under climate change. Yet, most focus countries seem to have accumulated stocks sufficient enough to maintain stable prices. We conclude that food-importing countries benefit from the international market in domestic price stability, and that storage could be an effective policy tool to complement international trade for price stabilization.
Author: Nicoletta Batini Publisher: Island Press ISBN: 1642831611 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 318
Book Description
The Economics of Sustainable Food details the true cost of food for people and the planet. It illustrates how to transform our broken system, alleviating its severe financial and human burden. The key is smart macroeconomic policy that moves us toward methods that protect the environment like regenerative land and sea farming, low-impact urban farming, and alternative protein farming, and toward healthy diets. The book's multidisciplinary team of authors lay out detailed fiscal and trade policies, as well as structural reforms, to achieve those goals. Chapters discuss strategies to make food production sustainable, nutritious, and fair, ranging from taxes and spending to education, labor market, health care, and pension reforms, alongside regulation in cases where market incentives are unlikely to work or to work fast enough. The authors carefully consider the different needs of more and less advanced economies, balancing economic development and sustainability goals. Case studies showcase successful strategies from around the world, such as taxing foods with a high carbon footprint, financing ecosystems mapping and conservation to meet scientific targets for healthy biomes permanency, subsidizing sustainable land and sea farming, reforming health systems to move away from sick care to preventive, nutrition-based care, and providing schools with matching funds to purchase local organic produce.--Amazon.
Author: Olena Ogrokhina Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This dissertation consists of three essays on the persistence and convergence of prices in the European Union. In the first essay I study price differentials in the Eurozone by comparing prices for specific goods between European cities, and estimate their persistence. The second essay tests the effect of the single market and single currency (euro) on price convergence in the European Union. The third essay tests the effect of trade on price convergence. In my first essay, using the Economist Intelligence Unit data I find that the Southern countries of the Eurozone have consistently lower prices. While the Core states such as Germany and France are more expensive, price differentials within the Core are very low. Using panel data I estimate the persistence of deviations from the Law of One Price by employing linear and nonlinear panel unit root tests that account for contemporaneous as well as serial correlation. Based on the linear test, the estimated half-lives of the deviations from the Law of One Price are 13 months for traded goods and 15 months for non-traded goods. Price differentials for certain traded goods revert to parity at different speeds, for example prices for food adjusts much faster than for cars. Splitting the data series for individual goods into stationary and non-stationary components reduces the half-lives to 3 months for traded goods and 5 months for non-traded goods. The results of the nonlinear test suggest that the speed of reversion to parity is constant and independent of the size of the deviations, which implies prices based on good-specific data adjust in a linear rather than a nonlinear fashion. The implementation of international treaties in the European Union was expected to promote integration of consumer markets. In my second essay, I analyze the convergence of prices for a range of traded goods. Large price differentials remain across Europe. Using high income non-euro European countries as a control group, I test the effect of the euro and the earlier implemented Single European Act on the convergence of prices in the European Union. Using a difference-in-difference estimation strategy, I find that the Single European Act, rather than the common currency, reduced price differentials and promoted price convergence. Wide price differences still exist across the members of the European Union. While differentials among the ``old'' EU members have changed little over time, large price differentials between the Eastern and Central EU and the Eurozone have reduced significantly, with prices completely converging to the levels of the Southern EU. In my third essay I test the effect of trade on price differentials. The fixed effects estimate shows strong correlation between price differentials and bilateral trade, a 1\% increase in bilateral trade reduces price differences by 9\%. This finding is completely driven by the Eastern and Central EU. Since the relationship between the price differentials and trade can go in either direction, an instrument is required to estimate a causal relationship. Instrumental-variables strategy shows that the effect of trade on price differentials for the Eastern and Central EU is even larger, at 13\%, yet insignificant for the remaining EU members.
Author: D M Jagath Rohitha Dissanayake
Author: Randall Stace Romero-Aguilar
Author: Lashawn K. Richburg Hayes
Author: Sahar Farid Yousef
Author: Tjalling C. Koopmans
Author: Pablo Javier Klein
Author: Bowen Chen
Author: Tereso S. Tullao
Author: Nicoletta Batini
Author: Olena Ogrokhina