Author: Mahmoud ShahinPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Three Essays on Bank Profitability, Fragility, and Lending
Author: Mahmoud ShahinThree Essays on Macro-finance, Banking, and Monetary Policy
Author: Russell H. RollowPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Banks and banking
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
In my first chapter, I study how the dollar funding fragility of non-US banks amplifies cyclical patterns in their appetite for credit risk. Global banks outside of the United States finance a significant portion of their dollar-denominated lending with uninsured wholesale dollar funding, the price of which rises with the perceived riskiness of the bank. Using data from the syndicated lending market, I examine the risk appetite of non-US global banks when a broad appreciation of the US dollar expands portfolio tail risk and activates value-at-risk constraints. By orthogonalizing errors in professional forecasts of the broad dollar index to other macroeconomic indicators, I show that following such a dollar appreciation, global banks with a heavy dependence on wholesale dollar funding contract cross-border dollar lending to firms with high credit risk, as measured with loan-specific spreads and borrower-specific characteristics. Based on this evidence, I argue that instability in non-US bank funding structures amplifies cyclical patterns in their appetite for credit risk.In my second chapter, I explore how traditional modeling techniques can be applied to produce density forecasts of interest rates. As spikes in economic uncertainty have grown in prevalence, the projection of financial data has become a more arduous task, which has sharpened the focus of investors and policymakers on forecast risk. By integrating a dynamic factor model into a Bayesian framework, I develop a density forecasting model that projects the predictive density of interest rates. Unlike point forecasts, density forecasts produce probability estimates for the full distribution of potential future outcomes of interest rates, as opposed to solely their central tendency. To assess the viability of my forecasting model, I conduct a robust out-of-sample evaluation of the model's performance, finding the model significantly outperforms a competing benchmark autoregressive model, especially when economic uncertainty is high. By examining density forecasts of Treasury yields during the COVID-19 pandemic and the term spread prior to the financial crisis of 2008, I demonstrate the value of the dynamic factor model in expanding the information set available to forward-looking investors and policymakers.In my third chapter, I analyze the impact of the Federal Reserve's adoption of a floor system of monetary policy implementation on the transmission mechanism of changes in the policy rate to US bank balance sheets. Since 2008, in part due to easy monetary policy, United States interest rates have remained at historically low levels. Using US commercial bank call report data, I examine the response of bank profitability and investment to a rise in the rate of interest on reserve balances (IORB). Specifically analyzing the 2015-18 Federal Reserve monetary tightening cycle, I show that, following a rise in the IORB, holding more reserves buffers bank NII growth and asset growth against the adverse effects of a rise in the IORB. Taken together, these results imply that a rise in the policy rate raise profitability for banks with substantial reserve holdings and, when capital constraints bind, expand investment capacity.
Three Essays on Bank Lending, Liquidity, and the Macroeconomy
Author: Torsten EhlersThree Essays on Bank Lending
Author: Fulvia FringuellottiEssays on Financial Stability and the Industrial Organization of the Banking System
Author: Jiahong GaoPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Banking
Languages : en
Pages : 209
Book Description
The focus of my dissertation is to study how the industrial organization of the banking sector affects the risk-taking behavior of financial intermediaries and the degree of instability within the banking system. In the first chapter, I ask whether the notion that market concentration promotes stability survives when the government intervention during a crisis is properly taken into account. To this end, I study suspension policies in an environment without commitment, following Ennis and Keister (2009). When the BA only values the welfare of depositors, the degree of fragility is independent of the competitive structure of the banking system. However, having a BA that puts some weight on the monopolist's welfare can serve as a commitment device in suspending payments earlier to protect bank profits, which reduces fragility under a monopoly. The second chapter investigates how the industrial organization of the banking sector may be associated with different triggers for the system to be unstable. In particular, my analysis is based on a modern version of the Diamond and Dybvig (1983) framework in which a self-fulfilling run occurs at a non-trivial probability and banks lack commitment in determining the structure of liabilities as in Ennis and Keister (2010). I find that the possibility that the monopolistic bank may lose its rents in times of stress encourages it to be relatively illiquid. As a result, a monopoly is more stable (fragile) than perfect competition if the ex-ante probability of a financial crisis is below (above) some threshold. The last chapter examines the effects of bank failures and market concentration on credit market activity across United States. In particular, I employ a recent 17-year panel of all FDIC-insured commercial banks over the period 1994Q3 to 2010Q4 and construct state-specific measures of bank failures and deposit concentration. Using a seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) model, I find that over the full sample, banks issued less loans if the likelihood of a bank failure in a given state increased. Further, banks in states with higher degrees of concentration also issued less loans. Interestingly, there appears evidence that market concentration serves as a buffer against instability.
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report
Author: Financial Crisis Inquiry CommissionPublisher: Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN: 1616405414
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 692
Book Description
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.
Fragile by Design
Author: Charles W. CalomirisPublisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691168350
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 584
Book Description
Why stable banking systems are so rare Why are banking systems unstable in so many countries—but not in others? The United States has had twelve systemic banking crises since 1840, while Canada has had none. The banking systems of Mexico and Brazil have not only been crisis prone but have provided miniscule amounts of credit to business enterprises and households. Analyzing the political and banking history of the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil through several centuries, Fragile by Design demonstrates that chronic banking crises and scarce credit are not accidents. Calomiris and Haber combine political history and economics to examine how coalitions of politicians, bankers, and other interest groups form, why they endure, and how they generate policies that determine who gets to be a banker, who has access to credit, and who pays for bank bailouts and rescues. Fragile by Design is a revealing exploration of the ways that politics inevitably intrudes into bank regulation.
The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions
Author: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemPublisher:
ISBN: 9780894991967
Category : Banks and Banking
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.
Three Essays on the Dynamics of International Finance in Southeast Asia
Author: SahminanPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Banks and banking
Languages : en
Pages : 170
Book Description
The Nordic Banking Crisis
Author: Mr.Burkhard DreesPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781557757005
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 52
Book Description
This study examines the banking crises in Finland, Norway and Sweden, which took place in the early 1990s, and draws some policy conclusions from their experiences. One key conclusion is that factors in addition to business cycle effects explain the Nordic countries financial problems. Although the timing of the deregulation in all three countries coincided with a strongly expansionary macroeconomic momentum, the main reasons for the banking crises were the delayed policy responses, the structural characteristics of the financial systems, and the banks inadequate internal risk-management controls.