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Author: Madhavi Bokil Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economic forecasting Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less suited to capturing turning points. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model illustrates how monetary developments can be described by a Phillips-curve type relationship. We deal with potential parameter instability on account of fundamental changes in Pakistan's economic system by restricting our sample to more recent observations. Gregorian and Islamic calendar seasonality are addressed by using 12-month moving averages.
Author: Madhavi Bokil Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economic forecasting Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less suited to capturing turning points. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model illustrates how monetary developments can be described by a Phillips-curve type relationship. We deal with potential parameter instability on account of fundamental changes in Pakistan's economic system by restricting our sample to more recent observations. Gregorian and Islamic calendar seasonality are addressed by using 12-month moving averages.
Author: Madhavi Bokil Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less suited to capturing turning points. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model illustrates how monetary developments can be described by a Phillips-curve type relationship. We deal with potential parameter instability on account of fundamental changes in Pakistan`s economic system by restricting our sample to more recent observations. Gregorian and Islamic calendar seasonality are addressed by using 12-month moving averages.
Author: Selim Elekdag Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451865708 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 30
Book Description
Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor inflation expectations. This paper argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule-based approach with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a flexible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in many developing countries, institutional capacity is a concern, adopting a more formal framework could impel the kind of changes that are required to strengthen the ability of the CBY in achieving low and stable rates of inflation over the medium term.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1463904843 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 90
Book Description
This note focuses on Russia's monetary policy, which is moving toward low and stable inflation. This paper discusses two analytical measures to analyze the monetary policy—core inflation measure and a group of leading indicators model (LIM). The trimmed mean core inflation is a good indicator for analyzing trend inflation and can be used as a viable target for monetary policy. LIMs are widely used for inflation forecasting and are also useful in detecting turning points in inflation.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Anti-inflationary policies Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor inflation expectations. This paper argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule-based approach with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a flexible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in many developing countries, institutional capacity is a concern, adopting a more formal framework could impel the kind of changes that are required to strengthen the ability of the CBY in achieving low and stable rates of inflation over the medium term
Author: Antonia Settle Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1108851304 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 265
Book Description
In a world of open markets and global trade, development thinking seeks stability and prosperity for the world's poor by expanding access to financial products. This book challenges the development sector's embrace of 'financial inclusion' by exploring how the new risks and instabilities that accompany the pivot towards the global economy undermining the functioning of money itself. Cast against fundamental change in the monetary environment accompanying the globalisation of markets, the book examines the rapid liberalisation of money and markets in Pakistan. It argues that liberalisation has generated substantive problems not only for the central bank as guardian of national currency, but for ordinary households. By pinpointing how globalisation generates new risks for households in the everyday economy, the book reveals jarring contradictions between free markets and financial inclusion whilst challenging money theory by positing substantive and empirically-grounded monetary contestation that demonstrates a burden of risk imposed on ordinary people, that is only exacerbated by financial inclusion.
Author: Madhavi Bokil
Author: Madhavi Bokil
Author: Madhavi Bokil
Author: Madhavi Bokil
Author: Selim Elekdag
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Author: 
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: 
Author: Antonia Settle
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