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Author: John H. Cochrane Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 0691243247 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 585
Book Description
A comprehensive account of how government deficits and debt drive inflation Where do inflation and deflation ultimately come from? The fiscal theory of the price level offers a simple answer: Prices adjust so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of taxes less spending. Inflation breaks out when people don’t expect the government to fully repay its debts. The fiscal theory is well suited to today’s economy: Financial innovation undermines money demand, and central banks don’t control the money supply or aggressively change interest rates, invalidating classic theories, while large debts and deficits threaten inflation and constrain monetary policy. This book presents a comprehensive account of this important theory from one of its leading developers and advocates. John Cochrane aims to make fiscal theory useful as a conceptual framework and modeling tool, and for analyzing history and policy. He merges fiscal theory with standard models in which central banks set interest rates, giving a novel account of monetary policy. He generalizes the theory to explain data and make realistic predictions. For example, inflation decreases in recessions despite deficits because discount rates fall, raising the value of debt; specifying that governments promise to partially repay debt avoids classic puzzles and allows the theory to apply at all times, not just during periods of high inflation. Cochrane offers an extensive rethinking of monetary doctrines and institutions through the eyes of fiscal theory, and analyzes the era of zero interest rates and post-pandemic inflation. Filled with research by Cochrane and others, The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level offers important new insights about fiscal and monetary policy.
Author: John H. Cochrane Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 0691243247 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 585
Book Description
A comprehensive account of how government deficits and debt drive inflation Where do inflation and deflation ultimately come from? The fiscal theory of the price level offers a simple answer: Prices adjust so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of taxes less spending. Inflation breaks out when people don’t expect the government to fully repay its debts. The fiscal theory is well suited to today’s economy: Financial innovation undermines money demand, and central banks don’t control the money supply or aggressively change interest rates, invalidating classic theories, while large debts and deficits threaten inflation and constrain monetary policy. This book presents a comprehensive account of this important theory from one of its leading developers and advocates. John Cochrane aims to make fiscal theory useful as a conceptual framework and modeling tool, and for analyzing history and policy. He merges fiscal theory with standard models in which central banks set interest rates, giving a novel account of monetary policy. He generalizes the theory to explain data and make realistic predictions. For example, inflation decreases in recessions despite deficits because discount rates fall, raising the value of debt; specifying that governments promise to partially repay debt avoids classic puzzles and allows the theory to apply at all times, not just during periods of high inflation. Cochrane offers an extensive rethinking of monetary doctrines and institutions through the eyes of fiscal theory, and analyzes the era of zero interest rates and post-pandemic inflation. Filled with research by Cochrane and others, The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level offers important new insights about fiscal and monetary policy.
Author: W. Erwin Diewert Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226148572 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 531
Book Description
Although inflation is much feared for its negative effects on the economy, how to measure it is a matter of considerable debate that has important implications for interest rates, monetary supply, and investment and spending decisions. Underlying many of these issues is the concept of the Cost-of-Living Index (COLI) and its controversial role as the methodological foundation for the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Price Index Concepts and Measurements brings together leading experts to address the many questions involved in conceptualizing and measuring inflation. They evaluate the accuracy of COLI, a Cost-of-Goods Index, and a variety of other methodological frameworks as the bases for consumer price construction.
Author: Willem H. Buiter Publisher: ISBN: Category : Budget Languages : en Pages : 84
Book Description
It is not common for an entire scholarly literature to be based on a fallacy, that is, 'on faulty reasoning; misleading or unsound argument'. The 'fiscal theory of the price level', recently re-developed by Woodford, Cochrane, Sims and others, is an example of a fatally flawed research programme. The source of the fallacy is an economic misspecification. The proponents of the fiscal theory of the price level do not accept the fundamental proposition that the government's intertemporal budget constraint is a constraint on the government's instruments that must be satisfied for all admissible values of the economy-wide endogenous variables. Instead they require it to be satisfied only in equilibrium. This economic misspecification has implications for the mathematical or logical properties of the equilibria supported by models purporting to demonstrate the properties of the fiscal approach. These include: overdetermined (internally inconsistent) equilibria; anomalies like the apparent ability to price things that do not exist; the need for arbitrary restrictions on the exogenous and predetermined variables in the government's budget constraint; and anomalous behaviour of the equilibrium' price sequences, including behaviour that will ultimately violate physical resource constraints. The issue is of more than academic interest. Policy conclusions could be drawn from the fiscal theory of the price level that would be harmful if they influenced the actual behaviour of the fiscal and monetary authorities. The fiscal theory of the price level implies that a government could exogenously fix its real spending, revenue and seigniorage plans, and that the general price level would adjust the real value of its contractual nominal debt obligations so as to ensure government solvency. When reality dawns, the result could be painful fiscal tightening, government default, or unplanned recourse to the inflation tax.
Author: International Labour Office Publisher: International Labour Organization ISBN: 9789221136996 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 578
Book Description
The consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate at which prices of consumer goods and services change over time. It is used as a key indicator of economic performance, as well as in the setting of monetary and socio-economic policy such as indexation of wages and social security benefits, purchasing power parities and inflation measures. This manual contains methodological guidelines for statistical offices and other agencies responsible for constructing and calculating CPIs, and also examines underlying economic and statistical concepts involved. Topics covered include: expenditure weights, sampling, price collection, quality adjustment, sampling, price indices calculations, errors and bias, organisation and management, dissemination, index number theory, durables and user costs.
Author: W. Erwin Diewert Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9784431559405 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This book answers the question of how exactly property price indexes should be constructed. The formation and collapse of property bubbles has had a profound impact on the economic administration of many nations. The property price bubble that began around the mid-1980s in Japan has been called the 20th century's biggest bubble. In its aftermath, the country faced a period of long-term economic stagnation dubbed the "lost decade." Sweden and the United States have also faced collapses of property bubbles in the 20th and early 21st centuries, respectively. It has been pointed out that the "information gap" that existed between policy-making authorities and the property (including housing) and financial markets was a problem. In 2009, the IMF proposed the creation of a housing price index to the G20 in order to fill this information gap, and the proposal was adopted. Furthermore, in 2011, it was suggested that the next economic crisis would be caused by a bubble in commercial property prices, and it was decided to create a commercial property index as well. This book provides practical examples of how the theory of property price indexes can be applied to the issues of property as a non-homogenous good and a technological and environmental change.
Author: Michael Woodford Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 1400830168 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 805
Book Description
With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure "fiat" currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime--one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the "New Classical" critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.
Author: OECD Publisher: OECD Publishing ISBN: 9264085416 Category : Languages : en Pages : 705
Book Description
A joint production by six international organizations, this manual explores the conceptual and theoretical issues that national statistical offices should consider in the daily compilation of export and import price indices. Intended for use by both ...
Author: R. J. Ball Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1351512552 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 459
Book Description
Martin Bronfenbrenner in the Journal of Finance had this to say when the book was first released "A thoughtful, scholarly, and systematic treatise on the economics of inflation. If this reviewer were asked to hang a course on inflation theory upon one single text, it would almost certainly be this one." The principal concern of this book is to set out the elements that enter into problems of analyzing inflation. This detailed, readable review of contemporary theory on the problems of inflation fills an important gap in the literature on macro-economics that: 1) assesses the implications of inflationary processes for economic policy; 2) synthesizes a general framework within which to illustrate inflationary processes; 3) reconciles the approaches of "demand inflation" and "cost inflation"; and 4) analyzes the determination and behavior of the general price level in an exchange economy. The first part of the book reviews neo-classical and "Keynesian" type models of the closed macro-economy, analyzes determination of the general price level, and introduces a restatement of conventional employment theory with emphasis on the general price level. The second part considers the problems of price and wage determinations and the demand for money in more detail, synthesizing the analyses into a model of the macro-economy and discussing the implications of this model and the preceding analysis for economic policy. Describing alternative approaches to the theory of inflation, each of which has resulted in partial theories, the book avoids fragmentary explanations by setting the entire discussion in the context of a macro-economic general equilibrium framework.
Author: Peter von der Lippe Publisher: Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 592
Book Description
This textbook integrates mathematical index theory and its application in official price statistics. It tries to bridge theory and practice, due to the apparent divergence between mathematicians with ever more sophisticated and complex models and practitioners with problems that are more and more difficult to understand without broad knowledge and some experience. The text offers an introduction into axiomatic, microeconomic and stochastic reasoning as regards index numbers, with moderately difficult mathematics. It also summarizes many ongoing discussions concerning methodological merits and demerits of specific indices, such as consumer price-, producer price-, unit value- and chain indices, in official price statistics. The book is comprehensive and presents a readable overview of a great number of topics in modern price index theory and their application in inflation measurement, deflation of aggregates in National Accounts, sampling and quality adjustment in price collection and other important though controversial issues.
Author: John H. Cochrane
Author: John H. Cochrane
Author: W. Erwin Diewert
Author: Willem H. Buiter
Author: International Labour Office
Author: W. Erwin Diewert
Author: Michael Woodford
Author: OECD
Author: R. J. Ball
Author: Milton Friedman
Author: Peter von der Lippe