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Author: DONALD B. MACNAUGHTON Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 260
Book Description
From the preface The "threshold p-value"-the arbiter of statistical significance-has been a widely used gateway to believability and acceptance for publication in scientific research since 1925. However, a growing number of statisticians and other researchers say we should "move beyond" these ideas, suggesting we should greatly reduce our emphasis on them in scientific research. These authors are waging a well-intentioned, polite, and vigorous intellectual war on the ideas of a threshold p-value and statistical significance. This is a "good" war, because it forces important issues into the open, where they can be best understood and assessed. This book grew from a sense that the threshold-p-value gateway to publication of scientific research results is highly useful but is also widely misunderstood. The book presents, from first principles, a modern view of the role of the gateway, as used by some scientific journals. The ideas are explained in terms of the recent disagreement about them between the editorial in a Special Issue on Statistical Inference of the American Statistician and a subsequent editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine. The ideas are developed with almost no reference to mathematics. (A computer can do all the standard math if the user properly understands the key ideas.) The explanations are reinforced with practical examples. The discussion shows how the concept of a threshold-p-value gateway helps researchers and journal editors maximize the overall scientific, social, and commercial benefit of scientific research. The gateway does this by optimally balancing the rates of costly "false-positive" and "false-negative" errors in a scientific journal. The book also discusses the important related ideas of a relationship between variables, a scientific hypothesis test, and the "replication crisis" in some branches of scientific research. The body of the book, which covers the key ideas, is roughly 30% of the text. The remainder consists of 23 appendices that expand the ideas in useful directions. The material is aimed at scientific researchers, journal editors, science teachers, and science students in the biological, social, and physical sciences. It will also be of interest to statisticians, data scientists, philosophers of science, and lay readers seeking an integrated modern view of the high-level operation of the study of relationships between variables in scientific research. About the author Donald B. Macnaughton has been a statistical consultant for more than 40 years. He has managed the statistical aspects of research in the fields of experimental psychology, zoology, drug dependence, nursing, education, business, geography, physical education, and inmate rehabilitation, among others. His consulting work supports and informs his main interest, which is to read, understand, and write about the vital role of the field of statistics in scientific research.
Author: DONALD B. MACNAUGHTON Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 260
Book Description
From the preface The "threshold p-value"-the arbiter of statistical significance-has been a widely used gateway to believability and acceptance for publication in scientific research since 1925. However, a growing number of statisticians and other researchers say we should "move beyond" these ideas, suggesting we should greatly reduce our emphasis on them in scientific research. These authors are waging a well-intentioned, polite, and vigorous intellectual war on the ideas of a threshold p-value and statistical significance. This is a "good" war, because it forces important issues into the open, where they can be best understood and assessed. This book grew from a sense that the threshold-p-value gateway to publication of scientific research results is highly useful but is also widely misunderstood. The book presents, from first principles, a modern view of the role of the gateway, as used by some scientific journals. The ideas are explained in terms of the recent disagreement about them between the editorial in a Special Issue on Statistical Inference of the American Statistician and a subsequent editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine. The ideas are developed with almost no reference to mathematics. (A computer can do all the standard math if the user properly understands the key ideas.) The explanations are reinforced with practical examples. The discussion shows how the concept of a threshold-p-value gateway helps researchers and journal editors maximize the overall scientific, social, and commercial benefit of scientific research. The gateway does this by optimally balancing the rates of costly "false-positive" and "false-negative" errors in a scientific journal. The book also discusses the important related ideas of a relationship between variables, a scientific hypothesis test, and the "replication crisis" in some branches of scientific research. The body of the book, which covers the key ideas, is roughly 30% of the text. The remainder consists of 23 appendices that expand the ideas in useful directions. The material is aimed at scientific researchers, journal editors, science teachers, and science students in the biological, social, and physical sciences. It will also be of interest to statisticians, data scientists, philosophers of science, and lay readers seeking an integrated modern view of the high-level operation of the study of relationships between variables in scientific research. About the author Donald B. Macnaughton has been a statistical consultant for more than 40 years. He has managed the statistical aspects of research in the fields of experimental psychology, zoology, drug dependence, nursing, education, business, geography, physical education, and inmate rehabilitation, among others. His consulting work supports and informs his main interest, which is to read, understand, and write about the vital role of the field of statistics in scientific research.
Author: Deborah G. Mayo Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1108563309 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 503
Book Description
Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.
Author: J. Scott Armstrong Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 23
Book Description
The Neyman-Pearson theory of hypothesis testing, with the Type I error rate, alpha;, as the significance level, is widely regarded as statistical testing orthodoxy. Fisher's model of significance testing, where the evidential p value denotes the level of significance, nevertheless dominates statistical testing practice. This paradox has occurred because these two incompatible theories of classical statistical testing have been anonymously mixed together, creating the false impression of a single, coherent model of statistical inference. We show that this hybrid approach to testing, with its misleading p lt; alpha; statistical significance criterion, is common in marketing research textbooks, as well as in a large random sample of papers from twelve marketing journals. That is, researchers attempt the impossible by simultaneously interpreting the p value as a Type I error rate and as a measure of evidence against the null hypothesis. The upshot is that many investigators do not know what our most cherished, and ubiquitous, research desideratum ndash; ldquo;statistical significancerdquo; ndash; really means. This, in turn, signals an educational failure of the first order. We suggest that tests of statistical significance, whether p's or alpha;'s, be downplayed in statistics and marketing research courses. Classroom instruction should focus instead on teaching students to emphasize the use of confidence intervals around point estimates in individual studies, and the criterion of overlapping confidence intervals when one has estimates from similar studies.
Author: DONALD B. MACNAUGHTON
Author: DONALD B. MACNAUGHTON
Author: Morris Altman
Author: Stephen Thomas Ziliak
Author: Alan G. Sawyer
Author: 
Author: Deborah G. Mayo
Author: J. Scott Armstrong
Author: Clyde B. Schechter
Author: Walter Krämer
Author: DeWayne L. Hodges