The Volatility of Long-term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure PDF Download

Author: Robert J. Shiller
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 76

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Author: Rajna Gibson
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601983727
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 171

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Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates provides a comprehensive review of the continuous-time modeling techniques of the term structure applicable to value and hedge default-free bonds and other interest rate derivatives.

Author: James E. Pesando
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Interest
Languages : en
Pages : 27

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The paper first identifies how large must be the range in which ex ante yields on long-relative to short-term bonds vary if term premiums -- are to account for a significant fraction of the variance of the holding- period yields on long-term bonds. This paper then extends Shiller's bound to the case of a time-varying term premium and readily identifies the variance in the term premium necessary to salvage the efficient markets model if the variance of these holding-period yields exceeds the bound implied by the rational expectations model. The role of transactions costs is noted and the possibility explored that evidence of excess volatility need not imply the existence of unexploited profit opportunities under the rational expectations model

Author: Mr.William Lee
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145185465X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30

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This paper assesses the relative importance of alternative explanations for the rise in long-term interest rates in the United States from October 1993 to April 1994. Standard econometric models of the term structure are shown to have a structural break in the early 1980s. An important reason for this change in the traditional term structure relationship appears to be an increase in the responsiveness of long-term rates to changes in the stance of monetary policy. Augmented term structure models that explicitly incorporate the role of monetary policy in determining the level of long-term rates are then constructed. These models track variations in the long-term rate better than traditional term structure models, but still leave a significant fraction of the recent increase in long-term rates unexplained.

Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Interest rates
Languages : en
Pages : 58

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Recent empirical research on the term structure of interest rates has shown that the long-term interest rate is well described by adistributed lag on short-term interest rates, but does not conform to the expectations theory of the term structure. It has been suggested that the long rate "overreacts" to the short rate. This paper presents aunified taxonomy of risk premia, or deviations from the expectations theory. This enables the hypothesis of overreaction to be formally stated. It is shown that, if anything, the long rate has underreacted to the short rate. However, the independent movement of the long rate is primarily responsible for the failure of the expectations theory.

Author: Clark Leavitt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Accounting fraud
Languages : en
Pages : 418

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Author: N. Gregory Mankiw
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Interest rates
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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We reexamine the expectations theory of the term structure using data at the short end of the maturity spectrum. We find that prior to the founding ofthe Federal Reserve System in 1915, the spread between long rates and short rates has substantial predictive power for the path of interest rates; after 1915, however, the spread contains much less predictive power. We then show that the short rate is approximately a random walk after the founding of the Fed but not before. This latter fact, coupled with even slight variation inthe term premium, can explain the observed change in 1915 in the performance of the expectations theory. We suggest that the random walk character of the short rate may be attributable to the Federal Reserve's commitment to stabilizing interest rates.

Author: Gary S. Shea
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Interest rates
Languages : en
Pages : 52

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Author: John Driffill
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commerce
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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This paper examines data on interest rates in the United Kingdom information on changes in policy regime and their credibility in order to discover the period from 1959-87 using quarterly data. A stochastic regime switching model used by Hamilton, based on an AR(4) model for short rates, and the corresponding model for long rates, does not adequately represent the UK data. Yields on long-term UK government debt behave consistently with the expectations model of the term structure, on a number of basic tests. Their relationship with yields on treasury bills, however, is not consistent with the theory unless an autoregressive risk premium is introduced into the holding period yield on long bonds. The only evidence of a change in the time-series behaviour of long bond yields in these data occurs at the end of 1974. There is no evidence of a policy change in 1979 or 1980. The hypothesis that these interest rates contain unit roots cannot be rejected. Therefore, tests of the expectations model devised by Campbell and Shiller to take account of unit roots in the data were undertaken, but they revealed no evidence of departures from the expectations model.

Author: William Roberds
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Interest rate futures
Languages : en
Pages : 56

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