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Author: Eduard Hofer Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9783319762968 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 346
Book Description
This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter values and input data. Naturally, it would be advantageous to know the combined effect of these uncertainties on the model results as well as whether the state of knowledge should be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the results most effectively. The book supports decision-makers, model developers and users in their argumentation for an uncertainty analysis and assists them in the interpretation of the analysis results.
Author: Eduard Hofer Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9783319762968 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 346
Book Description
This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter values and input data. Naturally, it would be advantageous to know the combined effect of these uncertainties on the model results as well as whether the state of knowledge should be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the results most effectively. The book supports decision-makers, model developers and users in their argumentation for an uncertainty analysis and assists them in the interpretation of the analysis results.
Author: Faith A. Morrison Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1108478352 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 389
Book Description
Build the skills for determining appropriate error limits for quantities that matter with this essential toolkit. Understand how to handle a complete project and how uncertainty enters into various steps. Provides a systematic, worksheet-based process to determine error limits on measured quantities, and all likely sources of uncertainty are explored, measured or estimated. Features instructions on how to carry out error analysis using Excel and MATLAB®, making previously tedious calculations easy. Whether you are new to the sciences or an experienced engineer, this useful resource provides a practical approach to performing error analysis. Suitable as a text for a junior or senior level laboratory course in aerospace, chemical and mechanical engineering, and for professionals.
Author: Hugh W. Coleman Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119417708 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 404
Book Description
Helps engineers and scientists assess and manage uncertainty at all stages of experimentation and validation of simulations Fully updated from its previous edition, Experimentation, Validation, and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers, Fourth Edition includes expanded coverage and new examples of applying the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) in performing uncertainty analyses. Presenting the current, internationally accepted methodology from ISO, ANSI, and ASME standards for propagating uncertainties using both the MCM and the Taylor Series Method (TSM), it provides a logical approach to experimentation and validation through the application of uncertainty analysis in the planning, design, construction, debugging, execution, data analysis, and reporting phases of experimental and validation programs. It also illustrates how to use a spreadsheet approach to apply the MCM and the TSM, based on the authors’ experience in applying uncertainty analysis in complex, large-scale testing of real engineering systems. Experimentation, Validation, and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers, Fourth Edition includes examples throughout, contains end of chapter problems, and is accompanied by the authors’ website www.uncertainty-analysis.com. Guides readers through all aspects of experimentation, validation, and uncertainty analysis Emphasizes the use of the Monte Carlo Method in performing uncertainty analysis Includes complete new examples throughout Features workable problems at the end of chapters Experimentation, Validation, and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers, Fourth Edition is an ideal text and guide for researchers, engineers, and graduate and senior undergraduate students in engineering and science disciplines. Knowledge of the material in this Fourth Edition is a must for those involved in executing or managing experimental programs or validating models and simulations.
Book Description
Uncertainties are inevitable in any experimental measurement. Therefore, it is essential for science and engineering graduates to design and develop reliable experiments and estimate the uncertainty in the measurements. This book describes the methods and application of uncertainty analysis during the planning, data analysis, and reporting stages of an experiment. This book is aimed at postgraduate and advanced undergraduate students of various branches of science and engineering. The book teaches methods for estimating random and systematic uncertainties and combining them to determine the overall uncertainty in a measurement. In addition, the method for propagating measurement uncertainties in the calculated result is discussed. The book also discusses methods of reducing the uncertainties through proper instrumentation, data acquisition, and experiment planning. This book provides detailed background and assumptions underlying the uncertainty analysis techniques for the reader to understand their applicability. Various solved examples are provided to demonstrate the application of the uncertainty analysis techniques. The exercises at the end of the chapters have been chosen carefully to reinforce the concepts discussed in the text.
Author: Paul De Bièvre Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3662051737 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 294
Book Description
It is now becoming recognized in the measurement community that it is as important to communicate the uncertainty related to a specific measurement as it is to report the measurement itself. Without knowing the uncertainty, it is impossible for the users of the result to know what confidence can be placed in it; it is also impossible to assess the comparability of different measurements of the same parameter. This volume collects 20 outstanding papers on the topic, mostly published from 1999-2002 in the journal "Accreditation and Quality Assurance." They provide the rationale for why it is important to evaluate and report the uncertainty of a result in a consistent manner. They also describe the concept of uncertainty, the methodology for evaluating uncertainty, and the advantages of using suitable reference materials. Finally, the benefits to both the analytical laboratory and the user of the results are considered.
Author: Bilal Ayyub Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9780792380306 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 414
Book Description
Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.
Author: Millett Granger Morgan Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 113993581X Category : Psychology Languages : en Pages : 376
Book Description
The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.
Author: Dorota Kurowicka Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470863080 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 302
Book Description
Mathematical models are used to simulate complex real-world phenomena in many areas of science and technology. Large complex models typically require inputs whose values are not known with certainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to quantify the overall uncertainty within a model, in order to support problem owners in model-based decision-making. In recent years there has been an explosion of interest in uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty and dependence elicitation, dependence modelling, model inference, efficient sampling, screening and sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic inversion are among the active research areas. This text provides both the mathematical foundations and practical applications in this rapidly expanding area, including: An up-to-date, comprehensive overview of the foundations and applications of uncertainty analysis. All the key topics, including uncertainty elicitation, dependence modelling, sensitivity analysis and probabilistic inversion. Numerous worked examples and applications. Workbook problems, enabling use for teaching. Software support for the examples, using UNICORN - a Windows-based uncertainty modelling package developed by the authors. A website featuring a version of the UNICORN software tailored specifically for the book, as well as computer programs and data sets to support the examples. Uncertainty Analysis with High Dimensional Dependence Modelling offers a comprehensive exploration of a new emerging field. It will prove an invaluable text for researches, practitioners and graduate students in areas ranging from statistics and engineering to reliability and environmetrics.
Author: Eduard Hofer
Author: Eduard Hofer
Author: Faith A. Morrison
Author: John Robert Taylor
Author: Hugh W. Coleman
Author: Supreet Singh Bahga
Author: Paul De Bièvre
Author: Bilal Ayyub
Author: Y. Zee Ma
Author: Millett Granger Morgan
Author: Dorota Kurowicka