The Temporal Climatology, Teleconnective Associations, and Climatic Impacts of Regional-scale Troughing in the Southwestern United States PDF Download

Author: Adam W. Burnett
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Storms
Languages : en
Pages : 468

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Author: United States. Environmental Data Service
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatology
Languages : en
Pages : 4

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Author: Swastik Bhandari
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 196

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Book Description
Over the years there is an increasing evidence of climate change on the available water resources. The interaction of hydrological cycle with climate variability and change may provide information related with several water management issues. The current study analyzes streamflow variability of the United States due to large-scale ocean-atmospheric climate variability. In addition, forecast lead-time is also improved by coupling climate information in a data driven modeling framework. The spatial-temporal correlation between streamflow and oceanic-atmospheric variability represented by sea surface temperature (SST), 500-mbar geopotential height (Z500), 500-mbar specific humidity (SH500), and 500-mbar east-west wind (U 500) of the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean is obtained through singular value decomposition (SVD). For forecasting of streamflow, SVD significant regions are weighted using a non-parametric method and utilized as input in a support vector machine (SVM) framework. The Upper Rio Grande River Basin (URGRB) is selected to test the applicability of the proposed forecasting model for the period of 1965-2014. The April-August streamflow volume is forecasted using previous year climate variability, creating a lagged relationship of 1-13 months. To understand the effect of predefined indices such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the regional streamflow, a wavelet analysis is also performed for regions developed by from 2014 National Climate Assessment (NCA). Moreover, different SVD approach is performed for streamflow of each of the six NCA regions named as Great Plains, Midwest, Northeast, Northwest, Southeast, and Southwest. In regional case, SVD is applied initially with streamflow and SST; and that spatial-temporal correlation is later correlated with Z500, SH500, and U500 separately to evaluate the interconnections between climate variables. SVD result showed that the streamflow variability of the URGRB was better explained by SST and U500 as compared to Z500 and SH 500. The SVM model showed satisfactory forecasting ability as the observed and forecasted streamflow volume for different selected sites were well correlated. The best results were achieved using a 1-month lead to forecast the following 4-month period. Overall, the SVM results showed excellent predictive ability with average linear correlation coefficient of 0.89 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.79. Whereas regional SVD analysis showed that streamflow variability in the Great Plains, Midwest, and Southwest region is strongly associated with SST of ENSO-like region. However, for Northeast and Southeast region, U500 and SH500 were strongly correlated with streamflow as compared to the SST of the Pacific Ocean. The continuous wavelet analysis of ENSO/PDO/AMO and the regional streamflow patterns revealed different significant timescale bands that affected their variation over the study period. Identification of several teleconnected regions of the climate variables and the association with the streamflow can be helpful to improve long-term prediction of streamflow resulting in better management of water resources in the regional scale.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 298

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Author: Vasubandhu Misra
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0128218274
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 342

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Book Description
Regionalizing Global Climate Variations: A Study of the Southeastern US Regional Climate provides a framework for understanding regional climate in light of the many assessment reports being released regularly by international organizations. The book emphasizes global climate variations to explore the concept of the regionalization of those variations. Focusing on the climate of the Southeastern United States as a lens, it provides a template for targeting regional climate change in the context of global variability. It includes coverage of weather extremes, such as tornadoes, cyclones, and drought, and approaches the subject from a holistic perspective, including atmospheric, oceanic, and land components. The Southeastern United States is a particularly relevant case study, given the fact that it is the largest quarter of the United States and has the most coastlines, often resulting in a higher number of extreme weather events. This practical approach to understanding climate at the regional/local scale makes the book a valuable resource for students and researchers in Meteorology, Climate Science, Oceanography, Environmental Science, and other applied sectors. Includes descriptions of the morphology of weather extremes such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes Discusses the influence of climate change on weather extremes Presents a holistic or interdisciplinary approach to understanding regional climate that includes features of atmospheric science, meteorology, oceanography, and hydrology

Author: Gregg Garfin
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781597264204
Category : Agriculture
Languages : en
Pages : 529

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Author: Melissa L. Malin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 126

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Book Description
For decades climatologists have researched teleconnection patterns to understand the impacts of these phenomena on seasonal climate variability in the United States. This research expands upon many previous works that have primarily addressed climate variability in terms of average departures from monthly and seasonal mean temperature and precipitation conditions. Here, two prominent teleconnections with strong winter signatures in the United States, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are examined to thoroughly describe intra-seasonal climate variability during each teleconnection phase over the last 55 winters. January-March daily maximum and mimimum temperature and total precipitation variability is assessed with Varimax rotated principal components analysis for each month and teleconnection phase, including neutral events. The spatial variability of results obtained across the country are assessed in GIS and the magnitude of phase variability is examined. Prior to statistical analyses, the global climate change signal is removed from temperature records since the mid 1970s using a hinge-fit linear trend line technique. In addition, an apparent trend in the NAO index, that biases the record prior to 1979 toward negative values and the period following 1979 toward positive values, is also removed to create a new NAO index for use in long-term climate variability assessments. Significant intra-seasonal climate variability is identified in all ENSO and NAO phases. Results indicate that two dominant modes and one subordinate mode exhibit a pattern of large and regionally consistent daily temperature variability in all phases, frequently over the Southwest, Northeast and North Central United States. In most ENSO and NAO events, the standard deviation of phase variability is approximately 6-8°C. A dominant mode of significant precipitation variability is identified over the Mid Atlantic region. Variability patterns of Neutral ENSO and NAO phases are often different each month, indicating that these events are not simply times of "near normal" conditions and are associated with unique regional temperature and precipitation variability. Further, since the spatial patterns of daily maximum temperature variability in a given phase are frequently found to be dissimilar to that of minimum temperature in the same phase, the use of average temperatures may be misrepresentative of the true range of temperature variation in a given region. The results of this research add information to climate forecasts and should aid confidence statistics issued alongside regional climate forecasts of phase average temperature and precipitation departures.

Author: Angela Jardine
Publisher: NCA Regional Input Reports
ISBN: 9781610914468
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
Prepared for the 2013 National Climate Assessment and a landmark study in terms of its breadth and depth of coverage, this report blends the contributions of 120 experts in climate science, economics, ecology, engineering, geography, hydrology, planning, resources management, and other disciplines to provide the most comprehensive, and understandable, analysis to date about climate and its effects on the people and landscapes of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah—including the U.S.-Mexico border region and the lands of Native Nations. What is the climate of the Southwest like today? What has it been like in the past, and how is it projected to change over the 21st century? How will that affect water resources, ecosystems, agricultural production, energy supply and delivery, transportation, human health, and a host of other areas? How vulnerable is the region to climate change? What else do we need to know about it, and how can we limit its adverse effects? In addressing these and other questions, the book offers decision makers and stakeholders a substantial basis from which to make informed choices that will affect the well-being of the region’s inhabitants in the decades to come.

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309444616
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 92

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Book Description
Many factors contribute to variability in Earth's climate on a range of timescales, from seasons to decades. Natural climate variability arises from two different sources: (1) internal variability from interactions among components of the climate system, for example, between the ocean and the atmosphere, and (2) natural external forcings, such as variations in the amount of radiation from the Sun. External forcings on the climate system also arise from some human activities, such as the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The climate that we experience is a combination of all of these factors. Understanding climate variability on the decadal timescale is important to decision-making. Planners and policy makers want information about decadal variability in order to make decisions in a range of sectors, including for infrastructure, water resources, agriculture, and energy. In September 2015, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop to examine variability in Earth's climate on decadal timescales, defined as 10 to 30 years. During the workshop, ocean and climate scientists reviewed the state of the science of decadal climate variability and its relationship to rates of human-caused global warming, and they explored opportunities for improvement in modeling and observations and assessing knowledge gaps. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dissertations, Academic
Languages : en
Pages : 812

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