Author: Changhyon ChoPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Financial futures
Languages : en
Pages : 360
Book Description
The Stochastic Behavior of Market Volatility Implied in the Prices of Index Options and a Test of Market Efficiency
Author: Changhyon ChoPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Financial futures
Languages : en
Pages : 360
Book Description
A Test of Market Efficiency Through the Development of Programmed Trading Strategies Utilizing the Information Value of the Implied Index Option Volatility Factor
Author: Randal Charles LangdonPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital market
Languages : en
Pages : 146
Book Description
A Test of Efficiency for the S & P 500 Index Option Market Using Variance Forecasts
Author: Jaesun NohPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Stock exchanges
Languages : en
Pages : 48
Book Description
To forecast future option prices, autoregressive models of implied volatility derived from observed option prices are commonly employed [see Day and Lewis (1990), and Harvey and Whaley (1992)]. In contrast, the ARCH model proposed by Engle (1982) models the dynamic behavior in volatility, forecasting future volatility using only the return series of an asset. We assess the performance of these two volatility prediction models from S&P 500 index options market data over the period from September 1986 to December 1991 by employing two agents who trade straddles, each using one of the two different methods of forecast. Straddle trading is employed since a straddle does not need to be hedged. Each agent prices options according to her chosen method of forecast, buying (selling) straddles when her forecast price for tomorrow is higher (lower) than today's market closing price, and at the end of each day the rates of return are computed. We find that the agent using the GARCH forecast method earns greater profit than the agent who uses the implied volatility regression (IVR) forecast model. In particular, the agent using the GARCH forecast method earns a profit in excess of a cost of $0.25 per straddle with the near-the-money straddle trading.
Test of Market Efficiency
Author: JinKyoung KimPricing Efficiency in the Long-term Index Options Market
Author: Anuradha KandikuppaPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Options (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 250
Book Description
Trading Volatility Spreads
Author: Peter F. PopePublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
Book Description
If returns on two assets share common volatility components, the prices of options on the assets should be interdependent and the implied volatility spread should mean revert. We, first demonstrate, using the canonical correlation method, that there is a common component among the volatilities of the returns on Samp;P 100 and Samp;P 500 indexes. We then exploit this commonality by trading on the volatility spread between tick-by-tick OEX and SPX call options listed on the CBOE. Our vega-delta-neutral strategies generated significant profits, even after transaction costs are taken into account. The results suggest that the two options markets are not jointly efficient.
Implied Volatility Based Trading Strategies
Author: Option Market (In)efficiency and Implied Volatility Dynamics After Return Jumps
Author: Juho KanniainenPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
Book Description
In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlying's return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility would indicate market inefficiency. Using minute-by-minute data on S&P 500 index options, we provide evidence regarding delayed and gradual movements in implied volatility after the arrival of return jumps. These movements are directed and persistent, especially in the case of negative return jumps. Our results are significant when the implied volatilities are extracted from at-the-money options and out-of-the-money puts, while the implied volatility obtained from out-of-the-money calls converges to its new level immediately rather than gradually. Thus, our analysis reveals that the implied volatility smile is adjusted to jumps in underlying's return asymmetrically. Finally, it would be possible to have statistical arbitrage in zero-transaction-cost option markets, but under actual option price spreads, our results do not imply abnormal option returns.
The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence
Author: Andrew AngPublisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601984685
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 99
Book Description
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) asserts that, at all times, the price of a security reflects all available information about its fundamental value. The implication of the EMH for investors is that, to the extent that speculative trading is costly, speculation must be a loser's game. Hence, under the EMH, a passive strategy is bound eventually to beat a strategy that uses active management, where active management is characterized as trading that seeks to exploit mispriced assets relative to a risk-adjusted benchmark. The EMH has been refined over the past several decades to reflect the realism of the marketplace, including costly information, transactions costs, financing, agency costs, and other real-world frictions. The most recent expressions of the EMH thus allow a role for arbitrageurs in the market who may profit from their comparative advantages. These advantages may include specialized knowledge, lower trading costs, low management fees or agency costs, and a financing structure that allows the arbitrageur to undertake trades with long verification periods. The actions of these arbitrageurs cause liquid securities markets to be generally fairly efficient with respect to information, despite some notable anomalies.
Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets
Author: Eugenie M.J.H. HolPublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 147575129X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 168
Book Description
Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets describes the existing techniques for the measurement and estimation of volatility in international stock markets with emphasis on the SV model and its empirical application. Eugenie Hol develops various extensions of the SV model, which allow for additional variables in both the mean and the variance equation. In addition, the forecasting performance of SV models is compared not only to that of the well-established GARCH model but also to implied volatility and so-called realised volatility models which are based on intraday volatility measures. The intended readers are financial professionals who seek to obtain more accurate volatility forecasts and wish to gain insight about state-of-the-art volatility modelling techniques and their empirical value, and academic researchers and students who are interested in financial market volatility and want to obtain an updated overview of the various methods available in this area.