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Author: John F. O. Bilson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 16
Book Description
The hypothesis that forward prices are the best unbiased forecast of future spot prices is often presented in the economic and financial analysis of futures markets. This paper considers the hypothesis independently of its implications for rational expectations or market efficiency and in order to stress this fact, the term quot;speculative efficiencyquot; is used to characterize the state envisaged under the hypothesis. If a market is subject to efficient speculation, the supply of speculative funds is infinitely elastic at the forward price that is equal to the expected future spot price. The expected future spot price is a market price determined as the solution to the underlying rational expectations macroeconomic model. Although the paper is primarily concerned with testing this hypothesis in the foreign exchange market, the methodology introduced in the paper is of general application to all futures markets.
Author: John F. O. Bilson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 16
Book Description
The hypothesis that forward prices are the best unbiased forecast of future spot prices is often presented in the economic and financial analysis of futures markets. This paper considers the hypothesis independently of its implications for rational expectations or market efficiency and in order to stress this fact, the term quot;speculative efficiencyquot; is used to characterize the state envisaged under the hypothesis. If a market is subject to efficient speculation, the supply of speculative funds is infinitely elastic at the forward price that is equal to the expected future spot price. The expected future spot price is a market price determined as the solution to the underlying rational expectations macroeconomic model. Although the paper is primarily concerned with testing this hypothesis in the foreign exchange market, the methodology introduced in the paper is of general application to all futures markets.
Author: Johannes Walder Publisher: GRIN Verlag ISBN: 3656404852 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 18
Book Description
Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 89%, University of Greenwich (Business), course: Finance, language: English, abstract: It can be assumed that the internet was one of the most influential inventions of the 20th century. The internet opened up completely new ways of communicating and executing businesses. It enabled shopping portals like Amazon or eBay to emerge and revolutionise the shopping experience of millions of customers worldwide. The new economy was a Symbol for seemingly endless possibilities and a market with no limits. However, all those new ways of doing business could not prevent one of the biggest stock market crashes in modern history caused by the dot.com bubble. This essay examines if the dot.com bubble stands in contradiction to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and their underlying assumptions. It will be argued that in the short term the efficient market can be bypassed but it will regulate itself again in the long run. The second part describes the strategy of a successful initial public offering (IPO) and analyses if the EMH has an impact on this endeavour. This paper will claim that the EMH influences the pricing of stocks and that a long term strategy is a key for a successful IPO.
Author: Andrew Ang Publisher: Now Publishers Inc ISBN: 1601984685 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 99
Book Description
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) asserts that, at all times, the price of a security reflects all available information about its fundamental value. The implication of the EMH for investors is that, to the extent that speculative trading is costly, speculation must be a loser's game. Hence, under the EMH, a passive strategy is bound eventually to beat a strategy that uses active management, where active management is characterized as trading that seeks to exploit mispriced assets relative to a risk-adjusted benchmark. The EMH has been refined over the past several decades to reflect the realism of the marketplace, including costly information, transactions costs, financing, agency costs, and other real-world frictions. The most recent expressions of the EMH thus allow a role for arbitrageurs in the market who may profit from their comparative advantages. These advantages may include specialized knowledge, lower trading costs, low management fees or agency costs, and a financing structure that allows the arbitrageur to undertake trades with long verification periods. The actions of these arbitrageurs cause liquid securities markets to be generally fairly efficient with respect to information, despite some notable anomalies.
Author: Carol Lee Osler Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
This paper develops a new parity condition for international financial markets which relates differences between the forward exchange rate and the expected future exchange rate to interest rate term premiums. It begins with the general proposition that VIP cannot hold for all maturity horizons if interest rate term premiums are imperfectly correlated across countries and expectations are rational. The conditions under which VIP could hold for multiple horizons, under these two assumptions, are found to be very restrictive. It is argued that if VIP holds at all under these circumstances, it is only likely to hold at a very short time horizon. Finally, it is shown that under these assumptions, if VIP holds at the shortest time horizon then the difference between forward exchange rates and expected future spot rates at all other horizons will be the difference in expected term premiums at each maturity.
Author: Hans-Michael Geiger Publisher: Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 244
Book Description
The purpose of this work is to provide a critical presentation and some extensions of two perspectives of informational efficiency: On the one hand the neoclassical perspective or «arithmomorphic approach» explains efficiency in terms of a concept mainly based on an explicit economic theory. On the other hand, in the Austrian perspective or «causal genetic approach» attention is drawn to the entrepreneurial element of human decision making related to an arbitrage theory of profit which is not traced back to anonymous market forces but rather to incessant discovery of information guided by entrepreneurial alertness.
Author: Olivier Darné Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
In this paper, we attempt to examine the speculative efficiency hypothesis on CO2 emission allowance prices negotiated on Bluenext, by testing the relationship between futures and spot prices from the Fama (1970) framework. This approach is based on the joint hypothesis of no risk premium and unbiasedness of futures prices. Cointegration tests are performed to confirm the legitimacy of futures and spot prices being included in the regression, following the approach proposed by Balke and Fomby (1997). The results indicate the absence of linear and nonlinear cointegration relationship between spot and futures prices. The speculative efficiency hypothesis did not hold even if the joint hypothesis is not rejected because of the existence of serial correlation in the residuals.
Author: Donald B. Hausch Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9812819193 Category : Games & Activities Languages : en Pages : 679
Book Description
A reprint of one of the classic volumes on racetrack efficiency, this book is the only one in its field that deals with the racetrack betting market in-depth, containing all the important historical papers on racetrack efficiency. As evidenced by the collection of articles, the understanding of racetrack betting is clearly drawn from, and has correspondingly returned something to, all the fields of psychology, economics, finance, statistics, mathematics and management science.
Author: John F. O. Bilson
Author: John F. O. Bilson
Author: C. L. Osler
Author: Johannes Walder
Author: C.L. Osler
Author: Andrew Ang
Author: Carol Lee Osler
Author: Hans-Michael Geiger
Author: Guay C. Lim
Author: Olivier Darné
Author: Donald B. Hausch