Author: Tokhir Mirzoev Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451982097 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
We develop a tractable open-economy new-Keynesian model with two sectors to analyze the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. We distinguish between spending the aid, which is under the control of the fiscal authorities, and absorbing the aid-using the aid to finance a higher current account deficit-which is influenced by the central bank's reserves policy when access to international capital markets is limited. The standard treatment of the transfer problem implicitly assumes spending equals absorption. Here, in contrast, a policy mix that results in spending but not absorbing the aid generates demand pressures and results in an increase in real interest rates. It can also lead to a temporary real depreciation if demand pressures are strong enough to threaten external balance. Certain features of low income countries, such as limited participation in domestic financial markets, make a real depreciation more likely by amplifying demand pressures when aid is spent but not absorbed. The results from our model can help understand the recent experience of Uganda, which saw an increase in government spending following a surge in aid yet experienced a real depreciation and an increase in real interest rates.
Author: Mr.Peter Isard Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 292
Book Description
Since the adoption of the Milennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2000, the challenge of reducing poverty around the world has been more prominent on the agenda of the international community. Relatively slow progress toward meeting the MDGs by the 2015 target date has added to the urgency of this effort. Two influential reports - The United Nations Millennium Project Report (the "Sachs Report") and the Commission for Africa Report (the "Blair Report") envisage substantial increases in aid flows to poor countries, especially to countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The International community sees increases in aid, along with improvements in recipient policies and freer global trade, as necessary for global prosperity and poverty reduction.
Author: Célestin Monga Publisher: ISBN: 0199687102 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 993
Book Description
A popular myth about the travails of Africa holds that the continent's long history of poor economic performance reflects the inability of its leaders and policymakers to fulfill the long list of preconditions to be met before sustained growth can be achieved. These conditions are said to vary from the necessary quantity and quality of physical and human capital to the appropriate institutions and business environments. While intellectually charming and often elegantly formulated, that conventional wisdom is actually contradicted by historical evidence and common sense. It also suggests a form of intellectual mimicry that posits a unique path to prosperity for all countries regardless of their level of development and economic structure. In fact, the argument underlining that reasoning is tautological, and the policy prescriptions derived from it are fatally teleological: low-income countries are by definition those where such ingredients are missing. None of today's high-income countries started its growth process with the "required" and complete list of growth ingredients. Unless one truly believes that the continent of Africa-and most developing countries-are ruled predominantly if not exclusively by plutocrats with a high propensity for sadomasochism, the conventional view must be re-examined, debated, and questioned. This volume-the second of the lOxford Handbook of Africa and Economics-reassesses the economic policies and practices observed across the continent since independence. It offers a collection of analyses by some of the leading economists and development thinkers of our time, and reflects a wide range of perspectives and viewpoints. Africa's emergence as a potential economic powerhouse in the years and decades ahead amply justifies the scope and ambition of the book.
Author: Andrew Berg Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 019878581X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 474
Book Description
Low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa present unique monetary policy challenges, from the high share of volatile food in consumption to underdeveloped financial markets. This book draws on the International Monetary Fund's research and practice to uncover how monetary policy in this region currently operates, and what changes should be made.
Author: David Fielding Publisher: Taylor & Francis ISBN: 1134530927 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 209
Book Description
This book applies contemporary macroeconomic theory and econometric modelling techniques in order to address policy issues relating to the CFA Franc Zone, a group of francophone African Countries sharing a common currency that is linked to the French Franc / Euro. Within this methodological framework, the author analyses the way in which the monetary institutions of the CFA influence macroeconomic development and policy formation.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498331254 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 67
Book Description
Investigates the macroeconomic challenges for low-income countries created by a surge in aid inflows. It develops an analytical framework for examining possible policy responses to increased aid, and then applies this framework to the experience of five relatively well-governed countries that experienced a recent surge in aid inflows: Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda. Each country’s policies were supported by a PRGF arrangement during most of the period under review.
Author: Manoj Atolia Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 147559593X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
Why do governments in developing economies invest in roads and not enough in schools? In the presence of distortionary taxation and debt aversion, the different pace at which roads and schools contribute to economic growth turns out to be central to this decision. Specifically, while costs are front-loaded for both types of investment, the growth benefits of schools accrue with a delay. To put things in perspective, with a “big push,” even assuming a large (15 percent) return differential in favor of schools, the government would still limit the fraction of the investment scale-up going to schools to about a half. Besides debt aversion, political myopia also turns out to be a crucial determinant of public investment composition. A “big push,” by accelerating growth outcomes, mitigates myopia—but at the expense of greater risks to fiscal and debt sustainability. Tied concessional financing and grants can potentially mitigate the adverse effects of both debt aversion and political myopia.
Author: Mr.Andrew Berg Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475577257 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 114
Book Description
We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv) the macroeconomic adjustment required to ensure internal and external balance. Well-executed high-yielding public investment programs can substantially raise output and consumption and be self-financing in the long run. However, even if the long run looks good, transition problems can be formidable when concessional financing does not cover the full cost of the investment program. Covering the resulting gap with tax increases or spending cuts requires sharp macroeconomic adjustments, crowding out private investment and consumption and delaying the growth benefits of public investment. Covering the gap with domestic borrowing market is not helpful either: higher domestic rates increase the financing challenge and private investment and consumption are still crowded out. Supplementing with external commercial borrowing, on the other hand, can smooth these difficult adjustments, reconciling the scaling up with feasibility constraints on increases in tax rates. But the strategy may be also risky. With poor execution, sluggish fiscal policy reactions, or persistent negative exogenous shocks, this strategy can easily lead to unsustainable public debt dynamics. Front-loaded investment programs and weak structural conditions (such as low returns to public capital and poor execution of investments) make the fiscal adjustment more challenging and the risks greater.
Author: Ms.Wenyi Shen Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513578979 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
Despite the voluminous literature on fiscal policy, very few papers focus on low-income countries (LICs). This paper develops a new-Keynesian small open economy model to show, analytically and through simulations, that some of the prevalent features of LICs—different types of financing including aid, the marginal efficiency of public investment, and the degree of home bias—play a key role in determining the effects of fiscal policy and related multipliers in these countries. External financing like aid increases the resource envelope of the economy, mitigating the private sector crowding out effects of government spending and pushing up the output multiplier. The same external financing, however, tends to appreciate the real exchange rate and as a result, traded output can respond quite negatively, reducing the overall output multiplier. Although capital scarcity implies high returns to public capital in LICs, declines in public investment efficiency can substantially dampen the output multiplier. Since LICs often import substantial amounts of goods, public investment may not be as effective in stimulating domestic production in the short run.
Author: Tokhir Mirzoev
Author: Derek Headey
Author: Mr.Peter Isard
Author: Célestin Monga
Author: Andrew Berg
Author: David Fielding
Author: International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
Author: Manoj Atolia
Author: Mr.Andrew Berg
Author: Ms.Wenyi Shen