Author: Universities--National Bureau Committee for Economic ResearchPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 488
Book Description
The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data
Author: Universities--National Bureau Committee for Economic ResearchPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 488
Book Description
The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data
Author: Universities National Bureau Committee for Economic ResearchPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 490
Book Description
The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data
Author: Universities-National Bureau StaffPublisher:
ISBN: 9780870143014
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 480
Book Description
The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data
Author: Universities-National Bureau StaffPublisher:
ISBN: 9780870143014
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 480
Book Description
Technical Paper
Author: Price Expectations in Rising Inflation
Author: I. ViscoPublisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483295834
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 289
Book Description
It is claimed in this book that expectations should not necessarily be treated as unobservable variables and that there is much to be learned from survey data. A unique data set is examined, the output of surveys conducted twice a year since 1952, among informed Italian businessmen and economic experts. The predictive accuracy, rationality and determinants of inflation expectations are investigated, following an extensive analysis of measurement issues.The estimate of inflation expectations are evaluated for both wholesale and consumer price changes, comparing them with those held by respondents to other surveys for different countries and with the forecasts generated by alternative predictors of the inflation process. The expectations considered in the study are shown to be remarkably accurate, anticipating all major price changes, even if during the years of high and rising inflation which have followed the first oil crisis they appear to underestimate on a number of occasions the inflation rates actually experienced, as the alternative predictors also do.An accurate testing of the rational expectations hypothesis is conducted, rejecting it over the entire sample period but not for the period of mild, but variable inflation which preceded the first oil crises.It is shown that a mixed adaptive-regressive model, with both error-learning and return-to-normality components adapts very well to the data considered in this study and that inflation expectations are also influenced by an uncertainty component which affects the adaptive coefficient. Furthermore, regression towards normality is slowed down when industrial capacity is utilized above normal, and vice-versa. Many other issues such as the dispersion of individual answers, the problems of aggregation and measurement error are also considered and an extensive bibliography of other works where use is made of direct information on expectations, is included.
The Role of Anticipations and Plans in Economic Behavior and Their Use in Economic Analysis and Forecasting
Author: Franco ModiglianiPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 176
Book Description
Anticipations and Purchases
Author: Francis Thomas JusterPublisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400879698
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 322
Book Description
The author is concerned with whether or not surveys of consumer anticipations can improve predictions of purchase behavior relative to predictions that use only objective variables obtainable at the same date. The basic objective of the study is improved predictions of changes over time. Originally published in 1964. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
Author: Tobias F. RötheliPublisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108482856
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 247
Book Description
A behavioral approach to modeling macroeconomic expectations.
Survey Research in the Social Sciences
Author: Charles Y. GlockPublisher: Russell Sage Foundation
ISBN: 1610448413
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 566
Book Description
Survey research was for a long time thought of primarily as a sociological tool. It is relatively recently that this research method has been adopted by other social sciences and related professional disciplines. The amount and quality of its use, however, vary considerably from field to field. This volume describes the elementary logic of survey design and analysis and provides, for each discipline, an evaluation of how survey research has been used and conceivably may be used to deal with the central problems of each field.