The Propagation of Uncertainty Through Travel Demand Models PDF Download

Author: Yong Zhao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Traffic estimation
Languages : en
Pages : 52

View

Book Description
The future operations of transportation systems involve enormous uncertainty - in both input and model parameters. This work investigates the stability of contemporary transport demand model output by quantifying variability in model input, such as zonal socioeconomic data and trip generation rates. It simulates the propagation of their variation through a series of common demand models over a simplified twenty-five-zone network. The results suggest that uncertainty may be compounded over a series of models and highly correlated across output. The propagated uncertainty varies remarkably in link flows, thus, some link flows may be more uncertain than others. The final step model, trip assignment, may reduce prior increased uncertainty through the first three steps, but generally could not lessen the uncertainty lower than the input uncertainty. Mispredictions at early stages (e.g., trip generation) in multi-stage models appear to amplify across later stages; thus, improvements to these models and their estimates are sorely needed.

Author: Brian W. Sloboda
Publisher: J. Ross Publishing
ISBN: 160427008X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 321

View

Book Description
In recent years, transportation systems have been judged on performance-based outcomes, thus, quantitative methods have become increasingly important to such assessments. This definitive reference will equip you with state-of-the-art statistical tools used in transportation modeling, how to interpret results and analyze the implications of those results.

Author: Jorge Freire Sousa
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3319046306
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 474

View

Book Description
This volume brings together works resulting from research carried out by members of the EURO Working Group on Transportation (EWGT) and presented during meetings and workshops organized by the Group under the patronage of the Association of European Operational Research Societies in 2012 and 2013. The main targets of the EWGT include providing a forum to share research information and experience, encouraging joint research and the development of both theoretical methods and applications, and promoting cooperation among the many institutions and organizations which are leaders at national level in the field of transportation and logistics. The primary fields of interest concern operational research methods, mathematical models and computation algorithms, to solve and sustain solutions to problems mainly faced by public administrations, city authorities, public transport companies, service providers and logistic operators. Related areas of interest are: land use and transportation planning, traffic control and simulation models, traffic network equilibrium models, public transport planning and management, applications of combinatorial optimization, vehicle routing and scheduling, intelligent transport systems, logistics and freight transport, environment problems, transport safety, and impact evaluation methods. In this volume, attention focuses on the following topics of interest: · Decision-making and decision support · Energy and Environmental Impacts · Urban network design · Optimization and simulation · Traffic Modelling, Control and Network Traffic Management · Transportation Planning · Mobility, Accessibility and Travel Behavior · Vehicle Routing

Author: Badi H. Baltagi
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1785609858
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403

View

Book Description
Advances in Econometrics 37 highlights key research in econometrics in a user friendly way for economists who are not econometricians.

Author: David E. Boyce
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1784713597
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 661

View

Book Description
Forecasting Urban Travel presents in a non-mathematical way the evolution of methods, models and theories underpinning travel forecasts and policy analysis, from the early urban transportation studies of the 1950s to current applications throughout the

Author: Susan Bregman
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1466568607
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 334

View

Book Description
Timely updates, increased citizen engagement, and more effective marketing are just a few of the reasons transportation agencies have already started to adopt social media networking tools. Best Practices for Transportation Agency Use of Social Media offers real-world advice for planning and implementing social media from leading government practitioners, academic researchers, and industry experts. The book provides an overview of the various social media platforms and tools, with examples of how transportation organizations use each platform. It contains a series of interviews that illustrate what creative agencies are doing to improve service, provide real-time updates, garner valuable information from their customers, and better serve their communities. It reveals powerful lessons learned from various transportation agencies, including a regional airport, city and state departments of transportation, and municipal transit agencies. Filled with examples from transportation organizations, the text provides ideas that can apply to all modes of transportation including mass transit, highways, aviation, ferries, bicycling, and walking. It describes how to measure the impact of your social media presence and also examines advanced uses of social media for obtaining information by involving customers and analyzing their social media use. The book outlines all the resources you will need to maintain a social media presence and describes how to use social media analytical tools to assess service strengths and weaknesses and customer sentiment. Explaining how to overcome the digital divide, language barriers, and accessibility challenges for patrons with disabilities, it provides you with the understanding of the various social media technologies along with the knowhow to determine which one is best for a specific situation and purpose.

Author: Akimasa Fujiwara
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 4431543791
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 305

View

Book Description
This book aims to provide a good understanding of and perspective on sustainable transport in Asia by focusing on economic, environmental, and social sustainability. It is widely acknowledged that the current situation and trends in transport are not always sustainable in Asia, due in part to the fast-growing economy and the astounding speed of urbanization as well as least-mature governance. As essential research material, the book provides strong support for policy makers and planners by comprehensively covering three groups of strategies, characterized by the words “avoid” (e.g., urban form design and control of car ownership), “shift” (e.g., establishing comprehensive transportation systems and increasing public transportation systems for both intracity and intercity travel), and “improve” (e.g., redesign of paratransit system, low-emission vehicles, intelligent transportation systems, and eco-life). These are elaborated in the book alongside consideration of the uncertainty of policy effects in the future. The book is also valuable for scholars and scientists because of the diverse methodologies presented and proposed herein. Among those are the four-step model with full feedback mechanisms, the bi-level programming model with sustainability goals, data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis approaches, structural equation models, discrete and/or continuous choice models, copula-based models, survival models, and driving risk models with short-term memory. Using data collected from more than ten Asian cities, including those in both developed and developing nations, the pathway to sustainable transport in Asia gradually becomes clear.

Author: Simon Cohen
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119307805
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 382

View

Book Description
Transport systems are facing an impossible dilemma: satisfy an increasing demand for mobility of people and goods, while decreasing their fossil-energy requirements and preserving the environment. Additionally, transport has an opportunity to evolve in a changing world, with new services, technologies but also new requirements (fast delivery, reliability, improved accessibility). The subject of traffic is organized into two separate but complementary volumes: Volume 3 on Traffic Management and Volume 4 on Traffic Safety. Traffic Management, Volume 3 of the 'Research for Innovative Transports' Set, presents a collection of updated papers from the TRA 2014 Conference, highlighting the diversity of research in this field. Theoretical chapters and practical case studies address topics such as cooperative systems, the global approach in modeling, road and railway traffic management, information systems and impact assessment.

Author: Robert Bain
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 0956152716
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 126

View

Book Description
Toll roads, bridges and tunnels represent the most popular class of infrastructure attracting international private finance today. Many deals, however, expose financiers, insurers and other project counterparties to demand risk. This moves traffic and revenue forecasts centre-stage in terms of being able to understand and test the investment proposition - yet the forecasting process itself often remains a mystery. Additionally, there are frequent concerns about predictive reliability. Written specifically for credit analysts, investors and other professionals whose primary expertise lies outside transportation, this book lifts the lid on the 'black box' of traffic and revenue forecasting. The author, Robert Bain (ex-S&P and a civil engineer with 20+ years of forecasting experience) has prepared a straightforward guide which highlights key issues to watch for and suggests ways in which the forecasts can be analysed to improve transparency and investor understanding.

Author: Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher: Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers(IEEE)
ISBN: 9780769519975
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 474

View

Book Description
Over the last three decades, significant progress in the understanding of uncertainty in information and knowledge, and the fuzzy processing of information is being achieved. Its application areas are numerous and diverse, and include all fields of engineering, computer science, systems control, agriculture, environmental engineering and finance. ISUMA 2003 focuses on the application of uncertainty modeling and analysis to elucidate its complexities in a wide variety of subjects.