The Pricing of Correlated Default Risk PDF Download

Author: Nikola A. Tarashev
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783865584083
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Book Description

Author: Nikola A. Tarashev
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk - as revealed by tranche spreads of a popular credit default swap (CDS) index - we extract risk-neutral probabilities of default (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from single-name CDS spreads. The time profile and overall level of index spreads validate our PD measures. At the same time, the physical asset return correlations are too low to account for the spreads of index tranches and, thus, point to a large correlation risk premium. This premium, which covaries negatively with current realized correlations and positively with future realized correlations, sheds light on market perceptions of and attitude towards correlation risk.Das Portfoliokreditrisiko setzt sich aus drei Hauptkomponenten zusammen: der Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit (probability of default, PD), der Verlustquote (loss given default, LGD) und der Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung für gemeinsame Ausfälle. Mit der rasanten Entwicklung innovativer Produkte im Bereich der strukturierten Finanzierung ist die Bedeutung der dritten Komponente zusehends gestiegen. Allerdings herrscht keine Einigkeit darüber, wie die Marktteilnehmer diese schätzen. Im vorliegenden Arbeitspapier schlagen wir zunächst einen auf CDSMarktdaten beruhenden Ansatz zur Ableitung der Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung für gemeinsame Ausfälle vor. Mit diesem Ansatz werden risikoneutrale PDs und physische Asset-Return-Korrelationen aus der Höhe der Preise und dem Gleichlauf (Co-movement) von Single-name-CDS-Spreads abgeleitet. Anschließend benutzen wir diese Schätzungen in einer konkreten Anwendung unseres Ansatzes zur Berechnung von Prognosen für Tranchenspreads eines bekannten CDS-Index (Dow Jones CDX North America Investment Grade Index) und vergleichen diese mit empirischen Spreads am CDS-Indexmarkt.

Author: Darrell Duffie
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 019150047X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 122

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This book, based on the author's Clarendon Lectures in Finance, examines the empirical behaviour of corporate default risk. A new and unified statistical methodology for default prediction, based on stochastic intensity modeling, is explained and implemented with data on U.S. public corporations since 1980. Special attention is given to the measurement of correlation of default risk across firms. The underlying work was developed in a series of collaborations over roughly the past decade with Sanjiv Das, Andreas Eckner, Guillaume Horel, Nikunj Kapadia, Leandro Saita, and Ke Wang. Where possible, the content based on methodology has been separated from the substantive empirical findings, in order to provide access to the latter for those less focused on the mathematical foundations. A key finding is that corporate defaults are more clustered in time than would be suggested by their exposure to observable common or correlated risk factors. The methodology allows for hidden sources of default correlation, which are particularly important to include when estimating the likelihood that a portfolio of corporate loans will suffer large default losses. The data also reveal that a substantial amount of power for predicting the default of a corporation can be obtained from the firm's "distance to default," a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage that is the basis of the theoretical models of corporate debt pricing of Black, Scholes, and Merton. The findings are particularly relevant in the aftermath of the financial crisis, which revealed a lack of attention to the proper modelling of correlation of default risk across firms.

Author: Siamak Javadi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Extracting information from daily CDS spreads, we propose a measure of correlated default risk, which we show is a meaningful predictor of bankruptcy clusters. Focusing on U.S. corporate bonds, we also find that our measure of correlated default risk is more pronounced and commands a higher premium during periods of financial distress and for speculative issues. For instance, we find that after controlling for other known determinants of bond pricing, a 0.5 increase in aggregate correlated default risk is associated with a 13-bps increase in credit spreads, and elevates to a 22-bps premium for speculative issues and to a 17-bps premium during periods of financial distress. Overall, our paper provides compelling evidence as to the efficacy of our measure in capturing correlations in the likelihood of default over time, and has important implications for future work in asset allocation and fixed-income pricing.

Author: Alan White
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3668668477
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31

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Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2018 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 10, , language: English, abstract: This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We also show that a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one. In other words, full collateralization cannot eliminate counterparty risk completely in the CDS market.

Author: Nikola A. Tarashev
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Credit
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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Book Description
Equity and credit-default-swap (CDS) markets are in disagreement as to the extent to which asset returns co-move across firms. This suggests market segmentation and casts ambiguity about the asset-return correlations underpinning observed prices of portfolio credit risk. The ambiguity could be eliminated by -- currently unavailable -- data that reveal the market valuation of low-probability/large-impact events. At present, judicious assumptions about this valuation can be used to reconcile observed prices with asset-return correlations implied by either equity or CDS markets. These conclusions are based on an analysis of tranche spreads of a popular CDS index, which incorporate a rather small premium for correlation risk.

Author: Ismail Onur Filiz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 228

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Author: Darrell Duffie
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400829178
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 415

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Book Description
In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.

Author: Jiri Podpiera
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455200573
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIs’ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.

Author: Sanjiv Ranjan Das
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 45

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Using a comprehensive and unique data set from Moody's, we examine correlations between default risk for over 7,000 U.S. public firms. This is the first paper to empirically document the correlation structure both in the time-series and in the cross-section across almost all U.S. non-financial firms. We find that default probabilities of issuers vary over time, and are positively correlated. Moreover, the correlations across firms also vary over time systematically, in a manner that is related to an economy-wide level of default risk. Joint default risk increases as the default risk in the economy increases. Our results also suggest that the magnitude of joint default depends on the quality of issuers; highest quality issuers have higher default correlations than medium grade firms.