Author: Stefanie J. HuberPublisher:
ISBN: 9783957299482
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
The Pass-through from Inflation Perceptions to Inflation Expectations
Author: Stefanie J. HuberPublisher:
ISBN: 9783957299482
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. SinclairPublisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J N SinclairPublisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179786
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 273
Book Description
This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved, including the spread of inflation targeting and the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so.
Inflation Perceptions and Inflation Expectations
Author: Ekaterina PenevaPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Given the presumed role of inflation expectations in influencing actual inflation, it is important to understand the implications of the survey expectations and whether differences from official estimates contain an important signal.
'Real-Feel' Inflation
Author: Michael AshtonPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 21
Book Description
The state of inflation expectations is generally supposed to influence actual inflation and therefore policymaker actions to maintain price stability. However, the methods usually employed to evaluate inflation expectations are insufficient. Survey methods either record economists' forecasts of official CPI, or consumers' flailing attempts to calculate the weighted average price increase personally experienced in a consumption basket consisting of hundreds of items purchased at different intervals (and the latter survey results do not mesh with anecdotal evidence that most consumers believe the inflation they face is higher than the official CPI). In this paper, I propose functional forms for several adjustments that can be made to reconcile official price measurements with consumers' perceptions. These adjustments are corrections for cognitive biases related to loss aversion and mental accounting. I identify several other biases that may be candidates for research into additional adjustments.
Pass-through from Short-horizon to Long-horizon Inflation Expectations, and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations
Author: James YetmanLow Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations
Author: Ina HajdiniPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Households
Languages : en
Pages : 44
Book Description
Using a novel experimental setup, we study the direction of causality between consumers' inflation expectations and their income growth expectations. In a large, nationally representative survey of U.S. consumers, we find that the rate of passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth is incomplete, on the order of 20%. There is no statistically significant effect going in the other direction. Passthrough varies systematically with demographic and socio-economic factors, with greater passthrough for higher-income individuals than lower-income individuals, although it is still incomplete. Higher inflation expectations also cause consumers to report a higher probability that they will search for a new job that pays more. Using our survey findings to calibrate a search-and-matching model, we find that dampened responses of real wages to demand and supply shocks translate into greater fluctuations in output. Taken together, the survey results and model exercises provide a labor market channel to explain why people dislike inflation.
Perceptions and Expectations of Inflation by U.S. Households
Author: Sandor AxelrodMaking Sense of Consumer Inflation Expectations
Author: Publisher:
ISBN: 9789289949750
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Consumers' inflation expectations play a key role in the monetary transmission mechanism. As such, it is crucial for monetary policymakers to understand what they are and how they are formed. In this paper we introduce the (un)certainty channel as means to shed light on some of the more puzzling aspects of reported quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations. These include the apparent overestimation of inflation by consumers as well as the negative correlation observed between the economic outlook and inflation expectations. We also show that the uncertainty framework fits with some of the stylised facts of consumers' inflation expectations, such as their correlation with socio-demographic characteristics and economic sentiment.
Author: Meredith J. Beechey