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Author: Alan A. Powell Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642590691 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 465
Book Description
As Ken Wallis (1993) has pOinted out, all macroeconomic forecasters and policy analysts use economic models. That is, they have a way of going from assumptions about macroeconomic policy and the international environment, to a prediction of the likely future state of the economy. Some people do this in their heads. Increasingly though, forecasting and policy analysis is based on a formal, explicit model, represented by a set of mathematical equations and solved by computer. This provides a framework for handling, in a consistent and systematic manner, the ever-increasing amounts of relevant information. Macroeconometric modelling though, is an inexact science. A manageable model must focus only on the major driving forces in a complex economy made up of millions of households and fIrms. International economic agencies such as the IMF and OECD, and most treasuries and central banks in western countries, use macroeconometric models in their forecasting and policy analysis. Models are also used for teaching and research in universities, as well as for commercial forecasting in the private sector.
Author: Alan A. Powell Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642590691 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 465
Book Description
As Ken Wallis (1993) has pOinted out, all macroeconomic forecasters and policy analysts use economic models. That is, they have a way of going from assumptions about macroeconomic policy and the international environment, to a prediction of the likely future state of the economy. Some people do this in their heads. Increasingly though, forecasting and policy analysis is based on a formal, explicit model, represented by a set of mathematical equations and solved by computer. This provides a framework for handling, in a consistent and systematic manner, the ever-increasing amounts of relevant information. Macroeconometric modelling though, is an inexact science. A manageable model must focus only on the major driving forces in a complex economy made up of millions of households and fIrms. International economic agencies such as the IMF and OECD, and most treasuries and central banks in western countries, use macroeconometric models in their forecasting and policy analysis. Models are also used for teaching and research in universities, as well as for commercial forecasting in the private sector.
Author: Warwick J. McKibbin Publisher: Brookings Institution Press ISBN: 9780815756019 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
" With the rapid deterioration of the U.S. trade balance in the 1980s, the United States was forced to finance deficits by borrowing heavily from the rest of the world. In doing so, the United States went from being the world's largest creditor country to the world's largest debtor, while Japan and West Germany experienced a rise in trade surpluses. Such a shift in international trade flows has had profound effects on the world economy. McKibbin and Sachs address a range of issues involving macroeconomic imbalances in the world economy. Through the use of a new simulation model of the world economy they explore how policy actions undertaken in one country affect the trade flows and macroeconomic patterns among the other counties. The authors show that key macroeconomic features of the 1980s can be explained by shifts in monetary and fiscal policies in the major economies and by supply shocks due to changes in oil prices. In addition to showing how the global macroeconomic experience can be understood, they focus on a number of current policy issues, including the reduction of global trade imbalances, the consequences of U.S. fiscal consolidation, the effects of an oil price shock, the implications for the U.S. economy of increases in Japanese and German fiscal spending, the effects of targeting exchange rates among the major currencies, and the gains of increased coordination of macroeconomic politics among the major economies. In several cases, their conclusions are shown to be quite different from those that form the basis of many conventional views. The authors also analyze the importance of interaction between policymakers in industrial economies and conclude by reemphasizing the need for U.S. politicians and policy experts to recognize that macroeconomic results in the U.S. now depend heavily on events abroad. "
Author: Ric D. Herbert Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1461555833 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 329
Book Description
Observers and Macroeconomic Systems is concerned with the computational aspects of using a control-theoretic approach to the analysis of dynamic macroeconomic systems. The focus is on using a separate model for the development of the control policies. In particular, it uses the observer-based approach whereby the separate model learns to behave in a similar manner to the economic system through output-injections. The book shows how this approach can be used to learn the forward-looking behaviour of economic actors which is a distinguishing feature of dynamic macroeconomic models. It also shows how it can be used in conjunction with low-order models to undertake policy analysis with a large practical econometric model. This overcomes some of the computational problems arising from using just the large econometric models to compute optimal policy trajectories. The work also develops visual simulation software tools that can be used for policy analysis with dynamic macroeconomic systems.
Author: Warwick J. McKibbin Publisher: Brookings Institution Press ISBN: 0815716680 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 296
Book Description
With the rapid deterioration of the U.S. trade balance in the 1980s, the United States was forced to finance deficits by borrowing heavily from the rest of the world. In doing so, the United States went from being the world's largest creditor country to the world's largest debtor, while Japan and West Germany experienced a rise in trade surpluses. Such a shift in international trade flows has had profound effects on the world economy. McKibbin and Sachs address a range of issues involving macroeconomic imbalances in the world economy. Through the use of a new simulation model of the world economy they explore how policy actions undertaken in one country affect the trade flows and macroeconomic patterns among the other counties. The authors show that key macroeconomic features of the 1980s can be explained by shifts in monetary and fiscal policies in the major economies and by supply shocks due to changes in oil prices. In addition to showing how the global macroeconomic experience can be understood, they focus on a number of current policy issues, including the reduction of global trade imbalances, the consequences of U.S. fiscal consolidation, the effects of an oil price shock, the implications for the U.S. economy of increases in Japanese and German fiscal spending, the effects of targeting exchange rates among the major currencies, and the gains of increased coordination of macroeconomic politics among the major economies. In several cases, their conclusions are shown to be quite different from those that form the basis of many conventional views. The authors also analyze the importance of interaction between policymakers in industrial economies and conclude by reemphasizing the need for U.S. politicians and policy experts to recognize that macroeconomic results in the U.S. now depend heavily on events abroad.
Author: Mary Morgan Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 113457312X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 416
Book Description
This collection, written by highly-placed practitioners and academic economists, provides a picture of how economic modellers and policy makers interact. The book provides international case studies of particular interactions between models and policy making, and argues that the flow of information is two-way.
Author: Candace Howes Publisher: University of Michigan Press ISBN: 0472027409 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 305
Book Description
This book argues, against the current view, that competitiveness--that is, the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector--matters to the long-term health of the U.S. economy and particularly to its long-term capacity to raise the standard of living of its citizens. The book challenges the arguments popularized most recently by Paul Krugman that competitiveness is a dangerous obsession that distracts us from the question most central to solving the problem of stagnant real income growth, namely, what causes productivity growth, especially in the service sector. The central argument is that, if the U.S. economy is to achieve full employment with rising real wages, it is necessary to enhance the competitiveness of its tradable goods sector. The book shows that current account deficits cannot be explained by macroeconomic mismanagement but are rather the consequence of an uncompetitive manufacturing sector. It finds that the long-term health of the manufacturing sector requires not only across-the-board policies to remedy problems of low or inefficient investment, but also sectoral policies to address problems that are strategic to resolving the balance of payments problems. Lessons are drawn from the experience of some European and Asian countries. This book will be of interest to economists, political scientists, and business researchers concerned with the place of the manufacturing sector in overall health of the U.S. economy, with issues of industrial policy and industrial restructuring, and with the conditions for rising standards of living. Candace Howes is Associate Professor, Barbara Hogate Ferrin Chair, Connecticut College. Ajit Singh is Professor of Economics, Queens College, Cambridge.
Author: Aman Ullah Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 9781420070361 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 532
Book Description
Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance explores the latest developments in the analysis and modeling of economic and financial data. Well-recognized econometric experts discuss the rapidly growing research in economics and finance and offer insight on the future direction of these fields. Focusing on micro models, the first group of chapters describes the statistical issues involved in the analysis of econometric models with cross-sectional data often arising in microeconomics. The book then illustrates time series models that are extensively used in empirical macroeconomics and finance. The last set of chapters explores the types of panel data and spatial models that are becoming increasingly significant in analyzing complex economic behavior and policy evaluations. This handbook brings together both background material and new methodological and applied results that are extremely important to the current and future frontiers in empirical economics and finance. It emphasizes inferential issues that transpire in the analysis of cross-sectional, time series, and panel data-based empirical models in economics, finance, and related disciplines.
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 9780262061742 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 342
Book Description
In this second collection of his writings on financial markets (the first, On Exchange Rates, covered international finance), Jeffrey Frankel turns his attention to domestic markets, with special attention to how national monetary policy is handled. The decade of the 1980s left many central bankers disillusioned with monetarism, so that the question of the optimal nominal anchor remains an open one. In this second collection of his writings on financial markets (the first, On Exchange Rates, covered international finance), Jeffrey Frankel turns his attention to domestic markets, with special attention to how national monetary policy is handled. The fifteen papers are divided into three sections, each introduced by the author. They cover, respectively, optimal portfolio diversification, indicators of expected inflation, and the determination of monetary policy in the face of uncertainty. In the first section, Frankel explores what information the theory of optimal portfolio diversification can give the macroeconomist. In the second section, he considers what economic variables central bankers might use to gauge whether monetary policy is too tight or too loose. And in the final section, he looks at the range of uncertainty over policy effects and how that complicates coordination of macroeconomic policymaking. The book concludes with a sympathetic analysis of nominal GDP targeting.
Author: N. Carnot Publisher: Springer ISBN: 0230005810 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 335
Book Description
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.
Author: David Vines Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521462341 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 436
Book Description
Researchers have begun to apply economic techniques initially developed to analyse the industrialised countries to analyse North-South interactions in the world economy. This volume, derived from a CEPR conference, brings together theoretical and empirical papers on fiscal, monetary and trade linkages between the North and South. The papers use the advances in the use of the major macroeconomic models to simulate global and inter-regional interactions, and to analyse the implications for the South of macroeconomic developments in the North. They also examine international policy questions in a genuinely global context, and consider the design of policy packages for the Third World (aid versus trade, growth-oriented adjustment) in an empirical context. This volume provides a useful overview of the flourishing research area relating to interactions between North and South, and highlights areas where future research is needed.
Author: Alan A. Powell
Author: Alan A. Powell
Author: Warwick J. McKibbin
Author: Ric D. Herbert
Author: Warwick J. McKibbin
Author: Mary Morgan
Author: Candace Howes
Author: Aman Ullah
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
Author: N. Carnot
Author: David Vines