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Author: Stephen Blaha Publisher: Pingree-Hill Publishing ISBN: 0972079580 Category : Civilization Languages : en Pages : 213
Book Description
This book is an expanded version of The Rhythms of History, the book that made macro-History into a semi-quantitative Science. New features include: 1. an appendix showing how the history of Mayan civilization conforms to the book''s Theory of Civilizations including the latest information from the newly discovered hieroglyphic texts at Dos Pilas, Guatemala; 2. an appendix on the sub-Saharan African civilization, Great Zimbabwe, showing it fits the theory; 3. a comparison of the theory with Toynbee''s observations showing the many new features resulting from a quantitative theory; 4. numerous historic pictures and illustrations of the civilizations of Mankind including a number of newly found pictures from the nineteenth century; 5. a chapter describing the potentially disturbing implications of patterns in civilizations - Are we free? ? and the implications for the Philosophy of History; and 6. expanded comments in many sections such as the sections on the future of Humanity, the role of China, and the Islamic - West conflict. The book begins with a hard hitting, "tell it like it is" chapter on the current international situation with statements such as: "The United States and Western civilization is now engaged in a small Vietnam-style war on a global scale at the time of this writing. This war is still in the early stages of development. ... The attack on the World Trade Center by Muslim terrorists may have the same significance for Western civilization that the Gothic invasion of Rome itself in the prime of the Empire (the First Century AD) had for the future of Rome. They may be a premonition of things to come - not necessarily soon but perhaps in a few centuries. The Goths returned three centuries later and remained as permanent conquerors. ... Over the long term the West must free itself from a dependence on Muslim oil. Muslim oil revenues are the fuel for the development of weapons of mass destruction by Iran and Iraq. In the future they will supply the revenues of an expansionist Islam. ... As the silk trade looted the Roman Empire of its gold and reduced its economy, the trade in oil is looting the West of its prosperity and freedom of action. The rise and fall of oil prices has a significantly greater effect on the American and world economy than the raising and lowering of interest rates by central banks. " The book then describes a theory of civilizations that led to these observations. Currently unfolding events seem to be fulfilling the predictions which were made last year (including the new North Korean threat that seems to be consistent with a predicted breakdown in Japan ? North Korea will create major problems with Japan. As this is being written Japan is moving Aegis destroyers nearer to North Korea and preparing for defense.) THE EVENTS DESCRIBED IN THIS BOOK, AND ITS PREDECESSOR, APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING AS PREDICTED LAST YEAR. According to Theory of Civilizations the basis of civilizations was laid with a genetic mutation (found by Ding et al) 40,000 years ago that created bold enterprising individuals who became the leadership group of civilizations: a group that Toynbee called the "creative minority." When the world''s climate became warmer and more stable 10,000 years ago the seeds of civilizations began to germinate. Thus the origin of civilizations is tied to human genetics. The book then shows that a long-term social behavior pattern of mankind (based on four generation trends) causes civilizations to develop and "oscillate" in patterns of routs and rallies. Civilizations rise and fall due to their internal human dynamics. The theory of civilization is developed using equations and 68 diagrams that show a close detailed match between the theory and the actual history of all known Asian, European and African civilizations over the last 5,500 years. The theory projects the future of today''s civilizations (including the future of Western and Islamic civilizations). It also successfully describes the interaction of barbarians and civilizations, the interaction of two civilizations, the impact of modern technology on civilizations (it accounts for the Luddite reaction to the Industrial Revolution), the impact of major environmental events on civilizations (e.g. the collapse of Minoan civilization due to a volcanic eruption), and the disintegration of civilizations. It also accounts for the tremendous growth phases seen in many civilizations such as the building of the great pyramids in Egyptian civilizations. Based on the theory fifteen new civilizations are identified including new prehistoric Chinese and Egyptian civilizations. Having shown the success of the theory for earth civilizations it considers the form of extraterrestrial civilizations and calculates their impact on Western civilization should contact be established. The book also shows the need for the colonization of space and nearby planets if mankind is to progress in the future. The book analyzes the impact of the lengthening life spans of mankind on the future of civilizations. Predictions are made for the "state of the world" for 2050 and 2100. A detailed understanding the past enables the theory of civilizations to make predictions for the future. Defining Progress to be the sum of the world''s civilizations the book shows that Progress seems to be approximately linearly increasing over the last 5,500 years. A plot of Progress appears on the book''s cover (shown on this web page) together with the contributions of each civilization to Progress. (The vertical order of the civilizations in the plot is arbitrary. Older civilizations tend to be lower in the plot.) The book is a tour de force that makes History a Science rather than a collection of random events. It is the first detailed mathematical treatment of history. Although the book contains mathematics it is intended for the general reader as well as the mathematically inclined. There are copious verbal descriptions of the theory as well as many figures plotting the theory versus historical events. A qualitative, descriptive theory of civilizations is also presented that is like a "Dow Theory of Civilizations."
Author: Stephen Blaha Publisher: Pingree-Hill Publishing ISBN: 0972079580 Category : Civilization Languages : en Pages : 213
Book Description
This book is an expanded version of The Rhythms of History, the book that made macro-History into a semi-quantitative Science. New features include: 1. an appendix showing how the history of Mayan civilization conforms to the book''s Theory of Civilizations including the latest information from the newly discovered hieroglyphic texts at Dos Pilas, Guatemala; 2. an appendix on the sub-Saharan African civilization, Great Zimbabwe, showing it fits the theory; 3. a comparison of the theory with Toynbee''s observations showing the many new features resulting from a quantitative theory; 4. numerous historic pictures and illustrations of the civilizations of Mankind including a number of newly found pictures from the nineteenth century; 5. a chapter describing the potentially disturbing implications of patterns in civilizations - Are we free? ? and the implications for the Philosophy of History; and 6. expanded comments in many sections such as the sections on the future of Humanity, the role of China, and the Islamic - West conflict. The book begins with a hard hitting, "tell it like it is" chapter on the current international situation with statements such as: "The United States and Western civilization is now engaged in a small Vietnam-style war on a global scale at the time of this writing. This war is still in the early stages of development. ... The attack on the World Trade Center by Muslim terrorists may have the same significance for Western civilization that the Gothic invasion of Rome itself in the prime of the Empire (the First Century AD) had for the future of Rome. They may be a premonition of things to come - not necessarily soon but perhaps in a few centuries. The Goths returned three centuries later and remained as permanent conquerors. ... Over the long term the West must free itself from a dependence on Muslim oil. Muslim oil revenues are the fuel for the development of weapons of mass destruction by Iran and Iraq. In the future they will supply the revenues of an expansionist Islam. ... As the silk trade looted the Roman Empire of its gold and reduced its economy, the trade in oil is looting the West of its prosperity and freedom of action. The rise and fall of oil prices has a significantly greater effect on the American and world economy than the raising and lowering of interest rates by central banks. " The book then describes a theory of civilizations that led to these observations. Currently unfolding events seem to be fulfilling the predictions which were made last year (including the new North Korean threat that seems to be consistent with a predicted breakdown in Japan ? North Korea will create major problems with Japan. As this is being written Japan is moving Aegis destroyers nearer to North Korea and preparing for defense.) THE EVENTS DESCRIBED IN THIS BOOK, AND ITS PREDECESSOR, APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING AS PREDICTED LAST YEAR. According to Theory of Civilizations the basis of civilizations was laid with a genetic mutation (found by Ding et al) 40,000 years ago that created bold enterprising individuals who became the leadership group of civilizations: a group that Toynbee called the "creative minority." When the world''s climate became warmer and more stable 10,000 years ago the seeds of civilizations began to germinate. Thus the origin of civilizations is tied to human genetics. The book then shows that a long-term social behavior pattern of mankind (based on four generation trends) causes civilizations to develop and "oscillate" in patterns of routs and rallies. Civilizations rise and fall due to their internal human dynamics. The theory of civilization is developed using equations and 68 diagrams that show a close detailed match between the theory and the actual history of all known Asian, European and African civilizations over the last 5,500 years. The theory projects the future of today''s civilizations (including the future of Western and Islamic civilizations). It also successfully describes the interaction of barbarians and civilizations, the interaction of two civilizations, the impact of modern technology on civilizations (it accounts for the Luddite reaction to the Industrial Revolution), the impact of major environmental events on civilizations (e.g. the collapse of Minoan civilization due to a volcanic eruption), and the disintegration of civilizations. It also accounts for the tremendous growth phases seen in many civilizations such as the building of the great pyramids in Egyptian civilizations. Based on the theory fifteen new civilizations are identified including new prehistoric Chinese and Egyptian civilizations. Having shown the success of the theory for earth civilizations it considers the form of extraterrestrial civilizations and calculates their impact on Western civilization should contact be established. The book also shows the need for the colonization of space and nearby planets if mankind is to progress in the future. The book analyzes the impact of the lengthening life spans of mankind on the future of civilizations. Predictions are made for the "state of the world" for 2050 and 2100. A detailed understanding the past enables the theory of civilizations to make predictions for the future. Defining Progress to be the sum of the world''s civilizations the book shows that Progress seems to be approximately linearly increasing over the last 5,500 years. A plot of Progress appears on the book''s cover (shown on this web page) together with the contributions of each civilization to Progress. (The vertical order of the civilizations in the plot is arbitrary. Older civilizations tend to be lower in the plot.) The book is a tour de force that makes History a Science rather than a collection of random events. It is the first detailed mathematical treatment of history. Although the book contains mathematics it is intended for the general reader as well as the mathematically inclined. There are copious verbal descriptions of the theory as well as many figures plotting the theory versus historical events. A qualitative, descriptive theory of civilizations is also presented that is like a "Dow Theory of Civilizations."
Author: Stephen Blaha Publisher: Pingree-Hill Publishing ISBN: 0972079572 Category : Architecture Languages : en Pages : 324
Book Description
"The Rhythms of History" presents a quantitative theory of civilizations supported by the data in Toynbee's classic 12-volume "A Study of History."
Author: Carroll Quigley Publisher: Indianapolis : Liberty Press ISBN: Category : History Languages : en Pages : 454
Book Description
Carroll Quigley was a legendary teacher at the Georgetown School of Foreign Service. His course on the history of civilization was extraordinary in its scope and in its impact on students. Like the course, The Evolution of Civilizations is a comprehensive and perceptive look at the factors behind the rise and fall of civilizations. Quigley examines the application of scientific method to the social sciences, then establishes his historical hypotheses. He poses a division of culture into six levels from the abstract to the more concrete. He then tests those hypotheses by a detailed analysis of five major civilizations: the Mesopotamian, the Canaanite, the Minoan, the classical, and the Western. Quigley defines a civilization as "a producing society with an instrument of expansion." A civilization's decline is not inevitable but occurs when its instrument of expansion is transformed into an institution--that is, when social arrangements that meet real social needs are transformed into social institutions serving their own purposes regardless of real social needs.
Author: Peter Turchin Publisher: Penguin ISBN: 9780452288195 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 405
Book Description
Argues that the key to the formation of an empire lies in a society's capacity for collective action, resulting from people banding together to confront a common enemy, and describing how the growth of empires leads to a growing dichotomy between rich and poor, increasing conflict instead of cooperation, and inevitable dissolution. Reprint. 25,000 first printing.
Author: William Strauss Publisher: Crown ISBN: 0767900464 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 401
Book Description
NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Discover the game-changing theory of the cycles of history and what past generations can teach us about living through times of upheaval—with deep insights into the roles that Boomers, Generation X, and Millennials have to play—now with a new preface by Neil Howe. First comes a High, a period of confident expansion. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion. Then comes an Unraveling, in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning—when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. William Strauss and Neil Howe will change the way you see the world—and your place in it. With blazing originality, The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. Most remarkably, it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about how America’s past will predict what comes next. Strauss and Howe base this vision on a provocative theory of American history. The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four twenty-year eras—or “turnings”—that comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. Illustrating this cycle through a brilliant analysis of the post–World War II period, The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for this rendezvous with destiny.
Author: Oswald Spengler Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 9780195066340 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 500
Book Description
Spengler's work describes how we have entered into a centuries-long "world-historical" phase comparable to late antiquity, and his controversial ideas spark debate over the meaning of historiography.
Author: Editors of Life Publisher: Life ISBN: 9781603202282 Category : Photography Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This is the pictorial history of the rise (and fall) of great nations, from the ancients to today. But this is not just Rome and the Incas and British imperialism-though it certainly includes them-but lesser known civilizations that are often relegated to a footnote, or forgotten altogether. The ancient Anasazi Indians of the American Southwest apparently enjoyed an agrarian lifestyle that, after they mysteriously disappeared, would not be realized again on this continent for many generations. The natives of Easter Island sealed their own doom with a kind of communal hysteria that remains unclear. Several cultures put their mark on England's Stonehenge, and peeling the layers of that story is like parsing the experience of a very old tree, ring by ring. Of course the ages of empire are recounted: Egypt, Greece, Rome, China, Russia, Great Britain. We journey, photographically and archeologically, through Troy, and also the Mediterranean islands of Gnossos and Santorini (was this where Plato's Atlantis thrived before the cataclysm)? We climb to Machu Piccu, and trek to Australia to revisit the island continent when it belonged to its Aborigines. Obviously, many of the great civilizations belong to history, experiencing their glory before the advent of photography. There are no pictures of Alexander the Great or Genghis Khan or Napoleon beyond the painted ones. But there are many photographs of the civilizations they built and ruled, many of which were made for LIFE magazine, which looked at this story often. Near our book's end, we arrive at the ongoing narrative that is the United States of America: today's great civilization, built on a system called democracy. Our history and prospects are all the more fascinating when put in relief against the stories of all previous great civilizations.
Author: Vaclav Smil Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262536161 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 564
Book Description
A comprehensive account of how energy has shaped society throughout history, from pre-agricultural foraging societies through today's fossil fuel–driven civilization. "I wait for new Smil books the way some people wait for the next 'Star Wars' movie. In his latest book, Energy and Civilization: A History, he goes deep and broad to explain how innovations in humans' ability to turn energy into heat, light, and motion have been a driving force behind our cultural and economic progress over the past 10,000 years. —Bill Gates, Gates Notes, Best Books of the Year Energy is the only universal currency; it is necessary for getting anything done. The conversion of energy on Earth ranges from terra-forming forces of plate tectonics to cumulative erosive effects of raindrops. Life on Earth depends on the photosynthetic conversion of solar energy into plant biomass. Humans have come to rely on many more energy flows—ranging from fossil fuels to photovoltaic generation of electricity—for their civilized existence. In this monumental history, Vaclav Smil provides a comprehensive account of how energy has shaped society, from pre-agricultural foraging societies through today's fossil fuel–driven civilization. Humans are the only species that can systematically harness energies outside their bodies, using the power of their intellect and an enormous variety of artifacts—from the simplest tools to internal combustion engines and nuclear reactors. The epochal transition to fossil fuels affected everything: agriculture, industry, transportation, weapons, communication, economics, urbanization, quality of life, politics, and the environment. Smil describes humanity's energy eras in panoramic and interdisciplinary fashion, offering readers a magisterial overview. This book is an extensively updated and expanded version of Smil's Energy in World History (1994). Smil has incorporated an enormous amount of new material, reflecting the dramatic developments in energy studies over the last two decades and his own research over that time.
Author: Lawrence M. Miller Publisher: Fawcett ISBN: 0449905268 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 242
Book Description
"One day your sluggish company will taken to the sound of a beating drum and the sight of a competitor approaching at ramming speed. On deck will be a jut-jawed Barbarian....He will hardly blink as his target is ripped asunder, sending Aristocrats, Bureaucrats and their unfortunate shipmates to their corporate death....So goes Mr. Miller's tale, from which we can all profit." The Wall Street Journal Barbarians to Bureaucrats presents a brilliant new solution to a stubborn old business problem: how to halt a company's descent into wasteful, stifling bureaucracy. Lawrence M. Miller, a management consultant for such corporate giants as Xerox and 3M, argues that corporations, like civilizations, have a natural life cycle, and that by identifying the stage your company is in, and the leaders associated with it, you can avert decline and continue to thrive. Every company begins with the compelling new vision of a Prophet and the aggressive leadership of an iron-willed Barbarian, who implements the Prophet's ideas. New techniques and expansions are pushed through by the Builder and the Explorer, but the growth spawned by these managers can easily stagnate when the Administrator sacrifices innovation to order, and the Bureaucrat imposes tight control. And just as in civilizations, the rule of the Aristocrat, out of touch with those who do the real work, invites rebellion -- from employees, customers, and stockholders. It will take the Synergist, a business leader who balances creativity with order, to restore vitality and insure future growth. Executives from major corporations have already put the powerful insights of Barbarians to Bureaucrats into practice to regenerate their own companies. Now you can use this brilliant, lucid, and dazzlingly original book to put your company -- and your career -- back on track.
Author: David Graeber Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux ISBN: 0374721106 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 384
Book Description
INSTANT NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER A dramatically new understanding of human history, challenging our most fundamental assumptions about social evolution—from the development of agriculture and cities to the origins of the state, democracy, and inequality—and revealing new possibilities for human emancipation. For generations, our remote ancestors have been cast as primitive and childlike—either free and equal innocents, or thuggish and warlike. Civilization, we are told, could be achieved only by sacrificing those original freedoms or, alternatively, by taming our baser instincts. David Graeber and David Wengrow show how such theories first emerged in the eighteenth century as a conservative reaction to powerful critiques of European society posed by Indigenous observers and intellectuals. Revisiting this encounter has startling implications for how we make sense of human history today, including the origins of farming, property, cities, democracy, slavery, and civilization itself. Drawing on pathbreaking research in archaeology and anthropology, the authors show how history becomes a far more interesting place once we learn to throw off our conceptual shackles and perceive what’s really there. If humans did not spend 95 percent of their evolutionary past in tiny bands of hunter-gatherers, what were they doing all that time? If agriculture, and cities, did not mean a plunge into hierarchy and domination, then what kinds of social and economic organization did they lead to? The answers are often unexpected, and suggest that the course of human history may be less set in stone, and more full of playful, hopeful possibilities, than we tend to assume. The Dawn of Everything fundamentally transforms our understanding of the human past and offers a path toward imagining new forms of freedom, new ways of organizing society. This is a monumental book of formidable intellectual range, animated by curiosity, moral vision, and a faith in the power of direct action. Includes Black-and-White Illustrations
Author: Stephen Blaha
Author: Stephen Blaha
Author: Stephen Blaha
Author: Carroll Quigley
Author: Peter Turchin
Author: William Strauss
Author: Oswald Spengler
Author: Editors of Life
Author: Vaclav Smil
Author: Lawrence M. Miller
Author: David Graeber