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Author: Rui Mano Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484392140 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 49
Book Description
This paper explains in detail the construction of series for productivity in the traded and nontraded sectors for a panel of 56 countries spanning 1989–2012. The level of productivity in each sector is defined as real value added per worker in constant 2005 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) U.S. dollars. To construct these series, we collect industry-level data from several sources, and classify individual industries as traded/non-traded using their ratio of exports to value added. Finally, we aggregate the industry data up to a traded sector and a non-traded sector, accordingly. This new dataset has two main advantages relative to existing datasets: (i) it defines more finely the traded/non-traded sectors, by drawing on much more disaggregated industry source data; and (ii) it allows for meaningful comparisons of the level of productivity across countries/sectors because sectoral productivity is adjusted by its own price level.
Author: Rui Mano Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484392140 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 49
Book Description
This paper explains in detail the construction of series for productivity in the traded and nontraded sectors for a panel of 56 countries spanning 1989–2012. The level of productivity in each sector is defined as real value added per worker in constant 2005 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) U.S. dollars. To construct these series, we collect industry-level data from several sources, and classify individual industries as traded/non-traded using their ratio of exports to value added. Finally, we aggregate the industry data up to a traded sector and a non-traded sector, accordingly. This new dataset has two main advantages relative to existing datasets: (i) it defines more finely the traded/non-traded sectors, by drawing on much more disaggregated industry source data; and (ii) it allows for meaningful comparisons of the level of productivity across countries/sectors because sectoral productivity is adjusted by its own price level.
Author: Rui Mano Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484319354 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 49
Book Description
This paper explains in detail the construction of series for productivity in the traded and nontraded sectors for a panel of 56 countries spanning 1989–2012. The level of productivity in each sector is defined as real value added per worker in constant 2005 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) U.S. dollars. To construct these series, we collect industry-level data from several sources, and classify individual industries as traded/non-traded using their ratio of exports to value added. Finally, we aggregate the industry data up to a traded sector and a non-traded sector, accordingly. This new dataset has two main advantages relative to existing datasets: (i) it defines more finely the traded/non-traded sectors, by drawing on much more disaggregated industry source data; and (ii) it allows for meaningful comparisons of the level of productivity across countries/sectors because sectoral productivity is adjusted by its own price level.
Author: Alistair Dieppe Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464816093 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 552
Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
Author: Matthew B. Canzoneri Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
The Balassa-Samuelson model, which explains real exchange rate movements in terms of sectoral productivities, rests on two components. First, for a class of technologies including Cobb-Douglas, the model implies that the relative price of nontraded goods in each country should reflect the relative productivity of labor in the traded and nontraded goods sectors. Second, the model assumes that purchasing power parity holds for traded goods in the long-run. We test each of these implications using data from a panel of OECD countries. Our results suggest that the first of these two fits the data quite well. In the long run, relative prices generally reflect relative labor productivities. The evidence on purchasing power parity in traded goods is considerably less favorable. When we look at US dollar exchange rates, PPP does not appear to hold for traded goods, even in the long run. On the other hand, when we look at DM exchange rates purchasing power parity appears to be a somewhat better characterization of traded goods prices.
Author: Bernard M. Hoekman Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Commerce Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
"The substantial literature investigating the links between trade, trade policy, and labor market outcomes-both returns to labor and employment-has generated a number of stylized facts, but many open questions remain. This paper surveys the subset of the literature focusing on trade policy and integration into the world economy. Although in the longer run trade opportunities can have a major impact in creating more productive and higher paying jobs, this literature tends to take employment as given. A common finding is that much of the shorter run impacts of trade and reforms involve reallocation of labor or wage impacts within sectors. This reflects a pattern of expansion of more productive firms-especially export-oriented or suppliers to exporters-and contraction and adjustment of less productive enterprises in sectors that become subject to greater import competition. Wage responses to trade and trade reforms are generally greater than employment impacts, but trade can only explain a small fraction of the general increase in wage inequality observed in both industrial and developing countries in recent decades. A feature of the literature survey is that the focus is almost exclusively on industries producing goods. Given the importance of service industries as a source of employment and determinants of competitiveness, the paper argues that one priority area for future research is to study the employment effects of services trade and investment reforms. "--World Bank web site.
Author: Cristina Constantinescu Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498399134 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
Author: Baybars Karacaovali Publisher: ISBN: Category : Commercial policy Languages : en Pages : 60
Book Description
"There is a growing literature that investigates the effect of trade liberalization on productivity. Nearly all such studies assume that trade policy is determined independently of productivity, hence it is exogenous. The author shows that this assumption is not valid in general, both theoretically and empirically, and that researchers may be underestimating the positive effect of liberalization on productivity when they do not account for the endogeneity bias. On the theory side, he demonstrates that under a standard political economy model of trade protection, productivity directly influences tariffs. Moreover, this productivity-tariff relationship partly determines the extent of liberalization across sectors even in the presence of a large exogenous unilateral liberalization shock that affects all sectors. The link between productivity and tariffs is maintained after the author includes in his political economy model a learning-by-doing motive of protection, which also serves as the source of liberalization. On the empirical side, he examines total factor productivity (TFP) estimates obtained at the firm level for Colombia between 1983 and 1998, and finds that more productive sectors receive more protection within this period. In estimating the effect of productivity on tariffs, he controls for the endogeneity of the two main right-hand-side variables-the inverse import penetration to import demand elasticity ratio and productivity-by using materials prices, the capital to output ratio, a measure of scale economies, and the TFP of the upstream industries as robust instruments. The author also accounts for the large trade liberalization between 1990 and 1992, and finds that the sectors with a higher productivity gain are liberalized less. Finally, he illustrates a system of equations estimation and shows that the positive impact of liberalization on productivity grows stronger when corrected for the endogeneity bias. "--World Bank web site.
Author: Taya Dumrongrittikul Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 208
Book Description
The aim of this thesis is to combine economic theory and empirical analysis in an effort to understand the dynamic effects of real exchange rate determinants, policies and global factors on real exchange rates. This thesis comprises three related essays.The first essay examines the validity of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (BSH). This study introduces a new approach for classifying traded and non-traded industries which allows for country-specific heterogeneity and trade endogeneity, and then uses this classification in the construction of a model that allows for the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find that in developed countries, productivity growth in traded sectors leads to a real depreciation, inconsistent with the BSH; however, higher economic growth will be followed by a real appreciation. The results of developing countries support the BSH, although persistence profiles show slow speeds of convergence.The second essay extends the analysis into a general model of real exchange rates. It investigates the impact of trade liberalisation, productivity growth, monetary policy and government consumption on real exchange rates in four panels of countries consisting of European, non-European developed, Asian developing and non-Asian developing countries. The analysis is based on a panel structural vector error correction model augmented with foreign variables, and a Bayesian approach is used to implement sign restrictions with a penalty function for undertaking impulse response analysis. We find that trade liberalisation generates depreciation and higher government consumption causes persistent appreciation. A contractionary monetary policy shock has only short-run impact on real exchange rates, corresponding to the long-run neutrality of monetary policy. Traded-sector productivity gains cause an impact appreciation in Asian developing countries and lead to persistent appreciation in non-Asian developing countries, whereas the shocks induce long-run depreciation in developed countries, in line with the results in the first essay.The third essay combines the four panels of countries into a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model to examine how real exchange rates and key macroeconomic variables respond to an oil price shock, a US monetary policy shock and simultaneous shocks to productivity in four large Asian emerging economies. Using a sign restricted impulse response approach, we find that an oil price shock causes a depreciation of the US dollar as well as economic recession and excessive inflation in the global economy. The way in which monetary policy deals with the shock matters for the long-run level of economic activity. An unexpected US monetary tightening causes an appreciation of the US dollar and a fall in real GDP and inflation over the long run. The monetary policy reaction to this change seems to be stronger in developing countries than in developed countries. Simultaneous shocks to traded-sector productivity in China, India, Korea and Indonesia induce a rise in real GDP and currency appreciation in these four countries. Meanwhile, many Asian countries benefit from the shocks with higher productivity and GDP. The value of their currency is likely to appreciate.
Author: Rui Mano Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513511025 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
This paper offers an empirical model of the drivers of the level of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) that is now part of the IMF’s methodology for the assessment of external positions, including exchange rates. It constructs a measure of the level of the REER and it offers a panel regression that considers a large number of cross-sectional and time varying factors, guided by the extensive literature. Its main contribution is to enhance our understanding of the cross-sectional determinants of the level of the REER, while taking into account the time-series drivers. The framework accounts for the much larger cross-sectional variation of the level REER, and can better explain the time series variation of level REER when these are based on GDP-deflators rather than on consumer price indices. The latter suggest there may be merits to broadening the assessments to include such measures, although further analysis is required.
Author: Rui Mano
Author: Rui Mano
Author: Rui C. Mano
Author: Rui Mano
Author: Alistair Dieppe
Author: Matthew B. Canzoneri
Author: Bernard M. Hoekman
Author: Cristina Constantinescu
Author: Baybars Karacaovali
Author: Taya Dumrongrittikul
Author: Rui Mano