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Author: Joris de Wind Publisher: ISBN: 9789058337429 Category : Economic impact analysis Languages : en Pages : 17
Book Description
We show empirically that uncertainty shocks are followed by deeper recessions in Continental Europe than in the Anglo-Saxon World. Moreover, our variance decomposition indicates that the conditional variance of economic activity related to only uncertainty shocks is much larger in Continental Europe. We associate these findings with country heterogeneity in labor and capital market flexibility, since firms are less capable to deal with uncertain situations when investment and hiring decisions are less easy to reverse, as suggested by Bloom (2009) and consistent with the findings of Bartelsman, Gautier, and de Wind (2016). Our empirical results are based on a structural Vector Autoregression with a similar specification as Bloom (2009).
Author: Joris de Wind Publisher: ISBN: 9789058337429 Category : Economic impact analysis Languages : en Pages : 17
Book Description
We show empirically that uncertainty shocks are followed by deeper recessions in Continental Europe than in the Anglo-Saxon World. Moreover, our variance decomposition indicates that the conditional variance of economic activity related to only uncertainty shocks is much larger in Continental Europe. We associate these findings with country heterogeneity in labor and capital market flexibility, since firms are less capable to deal with uncertain situations when investment and hiring decisions are less easy to reverse, as suggested by Bloom (2009) and consistent with the findings of Bartelsman, Gautier, and de Wind (2016). Our empirical results are based on a structural Vector Autoregression with a similar specification as Bloom (2009).
Author: MissStephanie Denis Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 161635562X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at around 6-12 months after the shock, and becomes statistically negligible after 18 months. Interestingly, the impact of uncertainty shocks on industrial production in the UK is strikingly similar to that of the US both in terms of the shape and magnitude of the response. However, unemployment in the UK is less affected by uncertainty shocks. Finally, we find that uncertainty shocks can account for about a quarter of the decline in industrial production during the Great Recession.
Author: Yves S. Schüler Publisher: ISBN: 9783957296870 Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
I propose a Bayesian quantile VAR to identify and assess the impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks, unifying Bloom's (2009) two identification steps into one. I find that an uncertainty shock widens the conditional distribution of future real economic activity growth, in line with a risk shock. Conversely, a certainty shock (a shock strongly decreasing uncertainty) narrows the conditional distribution of future real activity growth. In addition to the difference in signs, I show that the two shocks are different shocks. Each shock impacts the real economy uniquely. I support this with the underlying events: For instance, uncertainty shocks relate to events such as Black Monday and 9/11, but also to fears about future negative economic outcomes. In contrast, certainty shocks often link to phases of irrational exuberance. Commonly, no distinction is made between uncertainty and certainty shocks. I show that uncertainty shocks become more important if distinguished from certainty shocks.
Author: Charles Goodhart CBE Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing ISBN: 1349201758 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 508
Book Description
This is a completely revised edition of the well-known monetary textbook. The book discusses the latest analytical developments in monetary economic theory in a comprehensible and practical policy- orientated form for graduates and undergraduates specialising in monetary economics. The book provides a comprehensive survey of monetary economics, with the first nine chapters primarily concerned with micro issues, such as the role of, and demand for, money, the role and functions of banks and of the Central Bank; and the final nine chapters covering macro-economic issues, such as the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and international monetary problems.
Author: Joris de Wind
Author: Joris de Wind
Author: Ansgar Belke
Author: MissStephanie Denis
Author: Chris Redl
Author: Yves S. Schüler
Author: Dario Bonciani
Author: Seohyun Lee
Author: Charles Goodhart CBE
Author: Nicholas Bloom
Author: Gene Ambrocio