The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export and FDI Inflows PDF Download

Author: Aklilu Gebrehiwot
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Hisham S. Foad
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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No clear consensus exists in the existing literature on the effects of exchange rate volatility on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). A survey of past studies on this topic yields negative, positive, and indeterminate effects. Furthermore, the impact of currency risk appears to vary across both time and location. One possible explanation for these conflicting results is that they ignore the importance of export oriented FDI. A multinational's foreign affiliate is likely to operate in both the host country and local export markets. This tendency is magnified when considering FDI within a customs union such as the EU. Ignoring local export markets creates an omitted variable bias, which could overestimate or underestimate the effects of exchange rate volatility on FDI. Using detailed data on the operations of foreign affiliates of US multinationals across seventeen European countries from 1983 - 2002, we approach this issue in two stages. In the first stage, we obtain a measure of exports from foreign affiliates that is filtered from bilateral exchange rate volatility between the host and local export markets. This export series is then included in a dynamic panel with US to host market exchange rate volatility and a host of other FDI determinants to explain inflows of FDI from the US to European countries. Potential endogeneity issues are addressed using a GMM procedure suggested by Arellano and Bond (1991). We find that the ability to export has a positive and significant effect on inflows of FDI, estimating that a 1% increase in exports as a share of total affiliate sales is associated with a $96 million increase in FDI inflows. Once foreign affiliate exports have been accounted for, we find that exchange rate volatility between the US and the host country has a significantly negative effect on the level of FDI, but an insignificant effect on inflows. Additionally, it appears that there are some unobserved features of membership in the European Monetary Union that have a significantly positive effect on inflows. Finally, we run a counterfactual experiment in which we assume that the UK had adopted the euro in 1999. Re-estimating the trade and FDI relations, we estimate that by not joining the EMU, the UK has "lost" approximately $12 billion worth of FDI from the US. While not a large loss (less that 0.1% of UK GDP), it does imply that with regard to FDI from the US, the formation of the EMU has benefited the euro-zone countries at the expense of those outside the EMU.

Author: Callye R. M. Masten
Publisher: ProQuest
ISBN: 9780549388029
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages :

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The determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) have been widely examined. Previous studies have shown that exchange rates play a vital role in the analysis and are a major determinant in the flow of FDI. Most research has focused on examining how exchange rate volatility affects the economies of developed nations. However, little research has been done in understanding the impact of exchange rate volatility on FDI flows to Latin America. Developing countries lack the capital that is needed for further growth. Therefore, FDI is important to developing countries, because it allows them to gain the necessary capital. This paper examines the relationship between exchange rate volatility, political institutions and FDI flows into Latin America across two sectors: food processing, and industrial manufacturing. Empirical results show that exchange rate volatility significantly deters the flow of U.S. FDI into Latin America. Other significant economic factors are U.S. interest rates and openness to trade. Conflict and corruption are the political risk factors that have significant impacts on FDI flows. Conclusions from the paper recommend governments in Latin America to implement macroeconomic polices that promote stability, which could help reduce exchange rate volatility and lower inflation.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451977700
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24

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Contrary to the arguments of several scholars, we have failed to find either a conclusive theoretical case or clear empirical evidence of an effect, harmful or otherwise, of exchange rate variability (as measured by either short-term volatility or long-run misalignment) on overall levels of international trade. In this paper, after reviewing the theories and evidence on this issue, we go on to consider the impact of exchange rate variability on direct foreign investment. We summarize and amplify upon the scant theoretical literature of this issue, and proceed to test U.S. data for the presence of such an impact. We find none.

Author: Ying Qian
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Exports
Languages : en
Pages : 47

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Inconsistency in the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export growth reflects differences among countries in the currency in which trade is invoiced. Also, exchange rate volatility may affect the allocation of trade more than its level.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498330282
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 132

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Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781557750655
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 76

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In View of the continuation of substantial movements in exchange rate relationships among major currencies, the recent increase in protectionist pressures, and the disappointing performance of world trade, renewed concern has been expressed about the possible adverse effects of exchange rate variability on trade. Against the background of this concern, the following decision was reached at the ministerial meeting of the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in November 1982.

Author: Mr.Peter B. Clark
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451936621
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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This paper investigates the consequences of exchange rate volatility on the variability of export prices and quantities in the presence of market segmentation and pricing to market. Firms stabilize destination prices through systematic price discrimination, limiting the degree of exchange rate pass-through. Consequently, the variability of exchange rates is not fully translated into prices and quantities at the point of destination. Empirical estimates using aggregate price data for the G-7 industrial countries show incomplete pass-through in variances, with considerable variation among these countries. U.S. industry specific data also indicate incomplete pass-through in most cases, with considerable variation across industries.

Author: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781557756008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 74

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The 18 members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (APEC) encompass not only a wide geographic area but also broad differences in stages of economic development, including among them some of the fastest- growing economies in the world. Such rapid growth has been ficilitated by high levels of investment and trade, international linkages, and, in most APEC economies, macroeconomic policies that have sustained growth while not sparking excessive inflation. This study offers insights about how medium and long-term changes in real exchange rates have affected international (and intra-APEC) trade and investment in the region.

Author: Emmanuel Erem
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3668903921
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 67

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Master's Thesis from the year 2018 in the subject Economics - International Economic Relations, grade: A, National University of Ireland, Maynooth (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting), course: MSc Economic and Financial Risk Analysis, language: English, abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to examine the effect of real exchange rate volatility between the Canadian and US dollars on real exports from Canada to US. The study uses quarterly data from 1960-2017. The GARCH (1, 1) is used to model exchange rate volatility. After finding the variables are non-stationary with no co-integration, a VAR (Vector Auto regression) model is used to investigate the short-run relationship in the variables using Granger causality, impulse response functions and variance decomposition estimates. The results reveal that the effect of exchange rate volatility is of mixed signs with coefficients that are not statistically significant. The thesis is divided into 7 chapters; chapter 2 gives an overview of important literature and contributions by researchers over the years specifically covering the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade, exchange rate regimes, exchange rate target zones and inflation targeting. Chapter 3 presents the model and data used, definitions of the variables and the predictions of the model. Chapter 4 gives a theoretical and econometric overview of the unit root and co-integration tests. Chapter 5 gives the data output of the empirical results and discussions of test results. This output is presented using graphs and tables. Chapter 6 is a presentation of the limitations of the model and possible areas of improvement. Lastly, chapter 7 concludes and gives policy recommendations moving forward. Exchange rates are a key player in any economy that is engaging in international trade. A stable monetary policy system and financial sector play a key role in ensuring the exchange rate stability of the currency of a country. Firms and traders rely on prevailing exchange rates to forecast amounts to produce, import and export; thus are very much affected by the exchange rate volatility. In addition to this, there is a currency conversion cost in international trade. Traders use a number of products in financial markets to hedge against currency fluctuations; these include among others forwards contracts. This is especially true for short-term hedging than long-term hedging.