The Impact of Demographic Uncertainty on Public Finances in the Netherlands PDF Download

Author: Alex M. Armstrong
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finance, Public
Languages : en
Pages : 42

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Netherlands
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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Author: Juha M. Alho
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139470353
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 239

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Book Description
There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.

Author: Casper van Ewijk
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 144

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De vergrijzing van de Nederlandse bevolking brengt de houdbaarheid van de openbare financiën in gevaar. De verdubbeling van de verhouding tussen het aantal gepensioneerden en het aantal werkenden verstoort de balans tussen uitgaven en belastingopbrengsten. De stijging van uitgaven aan AOW en gezondheidszorg overtreft immers de stijging van belastingopbrengsten. Budgettaire hervormingen zijn dan ook nodig om te voorkomen dat toekomstige generaties worden genoodzaakt belastingen te verhogen dan wel op publieke uitgaven te bezuinigen. Hervormingen op het vlak van de sociale zekerheid van de laatste jaren zijn een stap in de goede richting, maar onvoldoende. Met name de daling van de kapitaalmarktrente en het vermogensverlies bij pensioenfondsen hebben de houdbaarheid van de openbare financiën verslechterd. De effecten die hervormingen uitoefenen op de intergenerationele balans zijn van belang voor de vraag welke verdere hervormingen het meest gewenst zijn.

Author:
Publisher: CEPS
ISBN: 9290796499
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 35

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It is well known by now that population ageing threatens the sustainability of fiscal policies in many countries. Although a number of policy options are available to address the problem, the uncertainty surrounding the future development of the population complicates matters. This paper analyses the economic, intergenerational and welfare effects of several alternative taxation policies that can be used to close the fiscal sustainability gap: immediate tax smoothing, delayed tax smoothing and balanced budget policies. A distinction is made between a consumption tax and a labour income tax. In addition, the influence of demographic uncertainty on the results of these policies is analysed from a number of perspectives. Simulated population shocks show the effect of demographic volatility on macroeconomic and fiscal variables. Stochastic simulations are presented to produce probabilistic bounds for the future development of the economic outcomes and to analyse the issue of optimal fiscal policy under uncertainty.

Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264281282
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 424

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Understanding Financial Accounts seeks to show how a range of questions on financial developments can be answered with the framework of financial accounts and balance sheets, by providing non-technical explanations illustrated with practical examples.

Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author: El Bachir Boukherouaa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589063953
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35

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This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.

Author: Manal Fouad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513576569
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61

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Book Description
Investment in infrastructure can be a driving force of the economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of shrinking fiscal space. Public-private partnerships (PPP) bring a promise of efficiency when carefully designed and managed, to avoid creating unnecessary fiscal risks. But fiscal illusions prevent an understanding the sources of fiscal risks, which arise in all infrastructure projects, and that in PPPs present specific characteristics that need to be addressed. PPP contracts are also affected by implicit fiscal risks when they are poorly designed, particularly when a government signs a PPP contract for a project with no financial sustainability. This paper reviews the advantages and inconveniences of PPPs, discusses the fiscal illusions affecting them, identifies a diversity of fiscal risks, and presents the essentials of PPP fiscal risk management.

Author: Nuno Crato
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319784617
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 344

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In the light of better and more detailed administrative databases, this open access book provides statistical tools for evaluating the effects of public policies advocated by governments and public institutions. Experts from academia, national statistics offices and various research centers present modern econometric methods for an efficient data-driven policy evaluation and monitoring, assess the causal effects of policy measures and report on best practices of successful data management and usage. Topics include data confidentiality, data linkage, and national practices in policy areas such as public health, education and employment. It offers scholars as well as practitioners from public administrations, consultancy firms and nongovernmental organizations insights into counterfactual impact evaluation methods and the potential of data-based policy and program evaluation.