The Impact of Climate Change on the Effectiveness of Water Conservation Policies in Western Kansas and the Ogallala Aquifer PDF Download
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Author: Pedro Vicente Garay Armoa Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Water scarcity is already a critical issue in many regions across the world and in many places water supplies are likely to be further threatened by climate change (Bates et al., 2008). Climate change will affect water availability in these areas both directly and indirectly. The direct effects come about because increased temperature (accompanied by changes in wind, humidity, and solar radiation) may increase evaporative losses from surface water bodies, and also because reduced precipitation lowers the rate of water inflows. In the case of groundwater, these factors will reduce the rate of aquifer recharge (Bates et al., 2008). The indirect effects arise from the biophysical impacts of climate change on vegetation, which are induced from rising temperatures, changing precipitation regimes, and increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. As a result of climate change, significant changes are expected in the hydrological cycle. This research is focused in how climate change can affect crop, land, and water allocation over time. The specific issue of this research comes from the following question: Is climate change likely to have a significant impact on the effectiveness of different water conservation policies in the High Plains aquifer region? This study is focused on the American High Plains, one of the most important water-scarce agricultural regions in North America. The study region for this research is a 31-county area overlying the Ogallala aquifer in western Kansas. This region encompasses approximately the western third of Kansas. Across these counties, the estimated remaining usable lifetime for aquifer water ranges from 50 to over 200 years (KGS), representing the range of water available in various parts of the aquifer. A Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model (Howitt, 1995) was developed and calibrated to land- and water-use data in the thirty one county area for a base period of 2000-2008. The PMP simulation uses inputs of price conditions and the aquifer level in a given year to predict the acreages planted to each of the major crops and the water use by crop. Decision makers are assumed to maximize profits, given the limited availability of water and arable land. The major crops in the model include wheat, corn, sorghum, soybeans, and alfalfa; the vast majority of historical planted acreage in the case counties is comprised of these five crops. The model was run for each of the case regions after calibrating the PMP model to data from 2000-2008. Calibration ensures that the model predictions fall within a small tolerance of the base period observations. This step avoids the problem of over-specialization (where the model places all of the acreages under one or two of the most profitable crops), and gives realistic acres and water use figures with which to work. The results suggest that the effects of the use of water conservation policies such as water use restriction and permanent conversion to dryland crops have positive effects on the trends of the different variables studied. With the implementation of these two policies, lower levels of total water use and higher levels of saturated thickness result but with a consequence of lower levels of net returns. However, the positive effects are lower in almost all cases if the effects of climate change on the same policies are taken into consideration. The scenarios of higher levels of temperature and lower precipitation levels projected for the region imply a greater demand for water for irrigated crops that results in lower levels of saturated thickness and simultaneously lower levels of net returns.
Author: Pedro Vicente Garay Armoa Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Water scarcity is already a critical issue in many regions across the world and in many places water supplies are likely to be further threatened by climate change (Bates et al., 2008). Climate change will affect water availability in these areas both directly and indirectly. The direct effects come about because increased temperature (accompanied by changes in wind, humidity, and solar radiation) may increase evaporative losses from surface water bodies, and also because reduced precipitation lowers the rate of water inflows. In the case of groundwater, these factors will reduce the rate of aquifer recharge (Bates et al., 2008). The indirect effects arise from the biophysical impacts of climate change on vegetation, which are induced from rising temperatures, changing precipitation regimes, and increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. As a result of climate change, significant changes are expected in the hydrological cycle. This research is focused in how climate change can affect crop, land, and water allocation over time. The specific issue of this research comes from the following question: Is climate change likely to have a significant impact on the effectiveness of different water conservation policies in the High Plains aquifer region? This study is focused on the American High Plains, one of the most important water-scarce agricultural regions in North America. The study region for this research is a 31-county area overlying the Ogallala aquifer in western Kansas. This region encompasses approximately the western third of Kansas. Across these counties, the estimated remaining usable lifetime for aquifer water ranges from 50 to over 200 years (KGS), representing the range of water available in various parts of the aquifer. A Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model (Howitt, 1995) was developed and calibrated to land- and water-use data in the thirty one county area for a base period of 2000-2008. The PMP simulation uses inputs of price conditions and the aquifer level in a given year to predict the acreages planted to each of the major crops and the water use by crop. Decision makers are assumed to maximize profits, given the limited availability of water and arable land. The major crops in the model include wheat, corn, sorghum, soybeans, and alfalfa; the vast majority of historical planted acreage in the case counties is comprised of these five crops. The model was run for each of the case regions after calibrating the PMP model to data from 2000-2008. Calibration ensures that the model predictions fall within a small tolerance of the base period observations. This step avoids the problem of over-specialization (where the model places all of the acreages under one or two of the most profitable crops), and gives realistic acres and water use figures with which to work. The results suggest that the effects of the use of water conservation policies such as water use restriction and permanent conversion to dryland crops have positive effects on the trends of the different variables studied. With the implementation of these two policies, lower levels of total water use and higher levels of saturated thickness result but with a consequence of lower levels of net returns. However, the positive effects are lower in almost all cases if the effects of climate change on the same policies are taken into consideration. The scenarios of higher levels of temperature and lower precipitation levels projected for the region imply a greater demand for water for irrigated crops that results in lower levels of saturated thickness and simultaneously lower levels of net returns.
Author: Nicolas Efrain Quintana Ashwell Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The two studies presented in this dissertation examine incentives for groundwater extraction and their resulting effect on aquifer depletion. Both studies apply dynamic optimization methods in a context of irrigated agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions such as in western Kansas. The first study examines the effects of capital subsidies aimed at increasing irrigation application efficiency. The second study examines the effects of changing incentives posed by changes in climatic patterns and by technical progress in the form of increasing crop water productivity. Both studies have significant policy and groundwater management implications. Subsidies for the adoption of (more) efficient irrigation technologies are commonly proposed and enacted with the goal of achieving water conservation. These subsidies are more politically feasible than water taxes or water use restrictions. The reasoning behind this type of policy is that increased application efficiency makes it possible to sustain a given level of crop production per acre with lower levels of groundwater pumping, all else equal. Previous literature argues that adoption of more efficient irrigation systems may not reduce groundwater extraction. Rewarding the acquisition of more efficient --and capital intensive-- irrigation equipment affects the incentives farmers have to pump groundwater. For instance, the farmer may choose to produce more valuable and water intensive crops or to expand the irrigated acreage after adopting the more efficient irrigation system. Hence, the actual impact of the policy on overall groundwater extraction and related aquifer depletion is unclear. The first chapter examines the effects of such irrigation technology subsidies using a model of inter-temporal common pool groundwater use with substitutable technology and declining well-yields from groundwater stocks, where pumping cost and stock externalities arise from the common property problem. An optimal control analytical model is developed and simulated with parameters from Sheridan County, Kansas--a representative region overlying the Ogallala aquifer. The study contrasts competitive and optimal allocations and accounts for endogenous and time-varying irrigation capital on water use and groundwater stock. The analysis is the first to account for the labor savings from improved irrigation technologies. The results show that in the absence of policy intervention, the competitive solution yields an early period with underinvestment in efficiency-improving irrigation technology relative to the socially efficient solution, followed by a period of over-investment. This suggests a potential role for irrigation capital subsidies to improve welfare over certain ranges of the state variables. In contrast to previous work, the findings are evidence that significant returns may be achieved from irrigation capital subsidies. Finally, a policy scenario is simulated where an irrigation technology subsidy is implemented to explore whether such a program can capture significant portions of the potential welfare gain. Results indicate that the technology subsidy can improve welfare, but it captures a relatively small portion of the potential gains in welfare. The second chapter presents a dynamic model of groundwater extraction for irrigation where climate change and technical progress are included as exogenous state variables-- in addition to the usual state variable of the stock of groundwater. The key contributions of this study are (i) an intuitive description of the conditions under which groundwater extraction can be non-monotonic, (ii) a numerical demonstration that extraction is non-monotonic in an important region overlying the Ogallala Aquifer, and (iii) the predicted gains from management are substantially larger after accounting for climate and technical change. Intuitively, optimal extraction is increasing in early periods when the marginal benefits of extraction are increasing sufficiently fast due to climate and technical change compared to the increase in the marginal cost of extraction. In contrast, most previous studies include the stock of groundwater as the only state variable and, consequently, recommend a monotonically decreasing extraction path. In this study, the numerical simulations for a region in Kansas overlying the Ogallala Aquifer indicate that optimal groundwater extraction peaks 23 years in the future and the gains from management are large (29.5%). Consistent with previous literature, the predicted gains from management are relatively small (6.1%) when ignoring climate and technical change. The realized gains from management are not substantially impacted by incorrect assumptions of climate and technical change when formulating the optimal plan.
Author: John Opie Publisher: U of Nebraska Press ISBN: 9780803286146 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 508
Book Description
In this new, enlarged edition, John Opie updates his groundbreaking work on the environmental history of the Ogallala aquifer and plains farming. He addresses the impact of the 1996 Farm Bill (Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform Act) and looks at the recent movement of industrial hog farming onto the plains. Opie also develops his argument for the plains as a ?moral geography,? a view involving the recognition by society that it has an obligation to balance the responsibility for conserving natural resources with that for keeping a regional people?the family farmers?in operation.
Author: Matthew Ken Clark Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The expansion of the biofuels industry, world demand, and various other factors are having a historic impact on the price of grains. These high prices have been creating a large increase in production of many water intensive crops such as corn. As corn is among the most input-intensive crops, this extra production has raised concerns about environmental impacts and pressures on water resources in particular. While water quality has been a longstanding concern in the cornbelt, much of the new production is in nontraditional corn regions including the southeast, the High Plains, and the western states. In these areas, there is mounting concern over depletion of already stressed water supplies. In the High Plains, the chief water source is the Ogallala aquifer, one of the largest water resources in the world that underlies eight states from South Dakota to Texas. The Ogallala has enabled many agricultural industries, such as irrigated crops, cattle feeding, and meat processing, to establish themselves in areas that would not be possible otherwise. A consequence is that the economy of this region has become dependent on groundwater availability. Continued overdrafts of the aquifer have caused a long-term drop in water levels and some areas have now reached effective depletion. This thesis seeks to estimate the impact of the rising commodity prices on groundwater consumption and cropping patterns in the Kansas portion of the Ogallala. The economy of this region is particularly dependent on water and irrigated crops, with more than 3 million head of feeder cattle and irrigated crop revenues exceeding $600 million annually. Sheridan (northwestern Kansas), Seward (southwestern Kansas), and Scott (west central Kansas) counties have been selected as representative case study regions. These counties have a wide range of aquifer levels with Seward having an abundant supply, Sheridan an intermediate supply, and Scott nearing effective depletion. Cropping patterns in these counties are typical of the western Kansas region, with most irrigated acreage being planted to corn and with dominant nonirrigated rotations of wheat-fallow and wheat-sorghum-fallow. A Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model was developed and calibrated to land- and water-use data in the case counties for a base period of 1999-2003. The PMP approach produces a constrained nonlinear optimization model that mimics the land- and water- allocation decision facing producers each year. The choice variables in the model are the acreages planted to each of the major crops and the water use by crop. The model was run for each of the case counties. The PMP calibration procedure ensures that the model solutions fall within a small tolerance of the base period observations. Once calibrated, the models were executed to simulate the impacts of the emerging energy demand for crops over a 60-year period. After the baseline projections were found, the model was then run under increased crop prices that reflect the higher prices observed in 2006 and after. The thesis found that under the high price scenario, both irrigated crop production and water application per acre increased significantly during the early years of the simulated period in all modeled counties. The size of the increases depended on the amount of original water available in each county. The increases generally diminished in magnitude toward the end of the simulation period, but led to smaller ending levels of saturated thickness as compared to the base price in all counties. Finally, in two of the three counties, it was observed that initial increases in irrigated crop acres and water application forces a decline in the aquifer such that less water can be applied per acre in the final years of the simulation. This suggests that high commodity prices forces a higher emphasis on early production levels than later production levels. Additionally, the higher prices have a significant effect on the rate of decline of the Ogallala aquifer.
Author: Rebekah Carnes Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This study investigates the roles of values, beliefs, and norms in water conservation decisions made by producers on the Ogallala Aquifer, in order to better understand the motivating factors that could lead toward environmental sustainability in this region of groundwater depletion. I focus on an over-arching question: how do farmers make decisions regarding water conservation? This question is broken into two specific sub-questions. First, how does culture affect decision-making? How do farmers' beliefs, values, political ideologies, and education influence their concern for the environment, measured by the extent to which they elevate guiding principles such as "respecting the earth, harmony with other species, protecting the environment, preserving nature, unity with nature, and fitting in with nature"? Secondly, how does the climate, and potentially climate change, affect the attitudes that prompt and justify decisions? This research relies on data from the 2019 Ogallala Producer Survey, and Climate data from the USGS in corresponding counties, and examines these questions through a series of regression models.
Author: Levi D. Brekke Publisher: DIANE Publishing ISBN: 1437920497 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 76
Book Description
Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation¿s water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. Charts and tables.
Author: Pedro Vicente Garay Armoa
Author: Pedro Vicente Garay Armoa
Author: Stephen Harold Amosson
Author: Nicolas Efrain Quintana Ashwell
Author: John Opie
Author: Matthew Ken Clark
Author: Rebekah Carnes
Author: Levi D. Brekke
Author: Kurt W. Davis
Author: Mary Fund
Author: Kansas Water Office