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Author: Dirk Gerritsen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
This study establishes that equity analyst recommendations have a significant short-term impact on share prices, by utilising an international database containing 31,363 analyst recommendations on JSE-listed and delisted companies, published over the period 1995 to 2011. In addition, two portfolio strategies were constructed. The first strategy shows that only investing in stocks with the most favourable consensus recommendations is associated with significant abnormal returns. The second strategy demonstrates that a portfolio consisting of recently upgraded stocks earns positive abnormal returns while a portfolio consisting of downgraded stocks is associated with negative abnormal returns.
Author: Dirk Gerritsen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
This study establishes that equity analyst recommendations have a significant short-term impact on share prices, by utilising an international database containing 31,363 analyst recommendations on JSE-listed and delisted companies, published over the period 1995 to 2011. In addition, two portfolio strategies were constructed. The first strategy shows that only investing in stocks with the most favourable consensus recommendations is associated with significant abnormal returns. The second strategy demonstrates that a portfolio consisting of recently upgraded stocks earns positive abnormal returns while a portfolio consisting of downgraded stocks is associated with negative abnormal returns.
Author: Nadine Weber Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing ISBN: 9783844306927 Category : Languages : en Pages : 72
Book Description
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis beholds that all public information is incorporated in the stock price. Yet economists question to what extent this holds, and these discussions are, among other factors, fuelled by the existence of analyst recommendations. If all information is already incorporated in the stock price, what value can analysts add? A comprehensive study on the German market finds that, indeed, a tangible effect is measured after analysts voice their recommendations; this effect is especially powerful when an analyst changes his recommendation to his previous one. Moreover, this book is the first to research how analyst recommendations have changed over time, whether analysts have better forecasting power during bull or bear markets, and, most importantly, how can an investor profit from this knowledge? An advanced calendar-time strategy has been developed wherein an investor can earn significant abnormal returns by following a momentum strategy in the short-term while simultaneously abiding to a contrarian strategy in the long-term.
Author: Kudzanai Chakona Publisher: GRIN Verlag ISBN: 3346756874 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 124
Book Description
Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2017 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, Birmingham City University, course: MSc Accountancy and Finance (ACCA), language: English, abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyse the changes in macroeconomic variables and evaluate the impact on a company’s stock prices, by examining the impact of changes macroeconomic variables, determining which macro-economic variables that have the least and most impact on stock prices and also suggest ways in which the impact on the macroeconomic variables on stock prices can be hedged against using agricultural futures, metal futures or a risk-free asset. The study will use five econometric models to test this impact, these include the Granger Causality test, Johansen Co-Integration test, Vector Error Model, Walt Test statistic, Multiple Regression Model. A review of a number of academic literature by notable analysis for both developed and developing markets will be provided. The FTSE share price index will be used in the study to represent the developed markets and the JSE share price index will be used in the study to represent the developing markets.
Author: Wanyi Yang Publisher: ISBN: Category : Investment advisors Languages : en Pages : 386
Book Description
This thesis comprises three separate empirical studies which examine different aspects of analyst stock recommendations in international stock markets. The first study focuses on the information content of analyst recommendations at the country level. It shows that analyst recommendations aggregated at the country level predict international stock market returns. A trading strategy based on country-level recommendations yields an abnormal return of around 1% per month. Additional tests indicate that analyst recommendations aggregated at the country level provide useful information to predict future aggregate cash flows and associated market returns across different countries. The second study shifts the focus towards the standard deviation of analyst recommendations. In particular, it takes a closer look at Miller's theory (1977) and tests whether the relationship between differences of opinion and stock returns exists at the country level. This study shows that country level disagreement measured from single stock recommendation dispersion is negatively related to future realized market returns. This study also provides evidence that growth stocks show a higher level of overpricing compared to value stocks. The aggregate difference of opinion remains significantly negatively related to market returns after allowing time-varying risk exposure. However, countries with more binding short-sales constraints do not show lower future market returns. Finally, the third study takes a broader perspective and investigates whether the short-term value impact of analyst recommendations varies across countries, and whether these differences are related to countries' institutional environments. The results show that stock price reactions are systematically different across countries. In particular, stock prices react significantly stronger to recommendation announcements in countries with higher accounting standards, more effective security enforcement, better earnings quality, common law origins, and better protection of private property. However, the enforcement of insider trading laws does not significantly affect the value of recommendations at the country level. The results are robust after extending the event window to (-15, +15) and excluding confounding earnings announcements. Moreover, the institutional environment affects the value of recommendation revisions across countries as well.
Author: Quoc Tuan Quoc Ho Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
In this thesis, I study three aspects of sell-side analysts' stock price forecasts, henceforth target prices: analyst teams' target price forecast characteristics, analysts' use of information to revise target prices, and determinants of target price disagreement between analysts. The first essay studies the target price forecast performance of team analysts in the UK and finds that teams issue timelier but not less accurate target prices. Unlike evidence from previous studies, my findings suggest that analyst teamwork may improve forecast timeliness without sacrificing forecast accuracy. However, market reactions to team target price revisions are not significantly different from those to individual analyst target price revisions, suggesting that although target prices issued by analyst teams are timelier and not less accurate than those of individual analysts, investors do not consider analyst team target prices more informative. I conjecture that analysts may work in teams to meet the demand to cover more companies while maintaining the quality of research by individual team members rather than to issue more informative reports. In the second essay, I study how analysts revise their target prices in response to new information implicit in recent market returns, stock excess returns and other analysts' target price revisions. The results suggest that analysts' target price revisions are significantly influenced by market returns, stock excess return and other analysts' target price revisions. I also find that the correlation between target price revisions and stock excess returns is significantly higher when the news implicit in these returns is bad rather than good. I conjecture that analysts discover more bad news from the information in stock excess returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it becomes inevitable, while they disclose good news early. Using a new measure of bad to good news concentration, I show that the asymmetric responsiveness of target price revisions to positive and negative stock excess returns is significant for firms with the highest concentration of bad news but is insignificant for firms with the lowest concentration of bad news. I argue that firms with the highest concentration of bad news are more likely to withhold and accumulate bad news. The findings, therefore, support my hypothesis that analysts discover more bad news than good news from stock returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it is inevitable. The third essay examines the determinants of analyst target price disagreement. I find that while disagreement in short-term earnings and in long-term earnings growth forecasts are significant determinants, recent 12-month idiosyncratic return volatility has the strongest explanatory power for target price disagreement. The findings suggest that target price disagreement is driven not only by analyst disagreement about short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth, but also by differences in analysts' opinions about the impact of recent firm-specific events on value drivers beyond short-term future earnings and long-term growth, which are eventually reflected in past idiosyncratic return volatility.
Author: Robert J. Shiller Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 9780262691512 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 486
Book Description
Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.
Author: Benjamin J. Richardson Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1135941130 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 398
Book Description
This book is about fiduciary law’s influence on the financial economy’s environmental performance, focusing on how the law affects responsible investing and considering possible legal reforms to shift financial markets closer towards sustainability. Fiduciary law governs how trustees, fund managers or other custodians administer the investment portfolios owned by beneficiaries. Written for a diverse audience, not just legal scholars, the book examines in a multi-jurisdictional context an array of philosophical, institutional and economic issues that have shaped the movement for responsible investing and its legal framework. Fiduciary law has acquired greater influence in the financial economy in tandem with the extraordinary recent growth of institutional funds such as pension plans and insurance company portfolios. While the fiduciary prejudice against responsible investing has somewhat waned in recent years, owing mainly to reinterpretations of fiduciary and trust law, significant barriers remain. This book advances the notion of ‘nature’s trust’ to metaphorically signal how fiduciary responsibility should accommodate society’s dependence on long-term environmental well-being. Financial institutions, managing vast investment portfolios on behalf of millions of beneficiaries, should manage those investments with regard to the broader social interest in sustaining ecological health. Even for their own financial self-interest, investors over the long-term should benefit from maintaining nature’s capital. We should expect everyone to act in nature’s trust, from individual funds to market regulators. The ancient public trust doctrine could be refashioned for stimulating this change, and sovereign wealth funds should take the lead in pioneering best practices for environmentally responsible investing.
Author: Dirk Gerritsen
Author: Dirk Gerritsen
Author: Nadine Weber
Author: Kudzanai Chakona
Author: Wanyi Yang
Author: Colin Travers
Author: Quoc Tuan Quoc Ho
Author: Bank of Jamaica
Author: Robert J. Shiller
Author: Joseph Olorunfemi Akande
Author: Benjamin J. Richardson