The Impact of a Dealer's Failure on OTC Derivatives Market Liquidity During Volatile Periods PDF Download

Author: Larry D. Wall
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Derivative Securites
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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Author: Larry D. Wall
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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This paper develops a model in which information losses may be an important part of the cost of an OTC derivatives dealer's failure. A dealer failure forces solvent counterparties of a failed dealer to seek replacement hedges with other dealers. However, by forcing good firms into the derivatives market, the failure provides camouflage for insolvent firms seeking to speculate with a dealer that does not know their credit status. The paper models this information loss and uses the model to quantitatively evaluate a range of scenarios. The results suggest that a market breakdown is unlikely but not quite impossible.

Author: Darrell Duffie
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bank failures
Languages : en
Pages : 46

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I explain the key failure mechanics of large dealer banks, and some policy implications. This is not a review of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Systemic risk is considered only in passing. Both the financial crisis and the systemic importance of large dealer banks are nevertheless obvious and important motivations.

Author: Darrell Duffie
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400836999
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 108

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A leading finance expert explains how and why big banks fail—and what can be done to prevent it Dealer banks—that is, large banks that deal in securities and derivatives, such as J. P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs—are of a size and complexity that sharply distinguish them from typical commercial banks. When they fail, as we saw in the global financial crisis, they pose significant risks to our financial system and the world economy. How Big Banks Fail and What to Do about It examines how these banks collapse and how we can prevent the need to bail them out. In sharp, clinical detail, Darrell Duffie walks readers step-by-step through the mechanics of large-bank failures. He identifies where the cracks first appear when a dealer bank is weakened by severe trading losses, and demonstrates how the bank's relationships with its customers and business partners abruptly change when its solvency is threatened. As others seek to reduce their exposure to the dealer bank, the bank is forced to signal its strength by using up its slim stock of remaining liquid capital. Duffie shows how the key mechanisms in a dealer bank's collapse—such as Lehman Brothers' failure in 2008—derive from special institutional frameworks and regulations that influence the flight of short-term secured creditors, hedge-fund clients, derivatives counterparties, and most devastatingly, the loss of clearing and settlement services. How Big Banks Fail and What to Do about It reveals why today's regulatory and institutional frameworks for mitigating large-bank failures don't address the special risks to our financial system that are posed by dealer banks, and outlines the improvements in regulations and market institutions that are needed to address these systemic risks.

Author: Mr.Manmohan Singh
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455228044
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24

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Recent regulatory efforts, especially in the U.S. and Europe, are aimed at reducing moral hazard so that the next financial crisis is not bailed out by tax payers. This paper looks at the possibility that central counterparties (CCPs) may be too-big-to-fail entities in the making. The present regulatory and reform efforts may not remove the systemic risk from OTC derivatives but rather shift them from banks to CCPs. Under the present regulatory overhaul, the OTC derivative market could become more fragmented. Furthermore, another taxpayer bailout cannot be ruled out. A reexamination of the two key issues of (i) the interoperability of CCPs, and (ii) the cost of moving to CCPs with access to central bank funding, indicates that the proposed changes may not provide the best solution. The paper suggests that a tax on derivative liabilities could make the OTC derivatives market safer, particularly in the transition to a stable clearing infrastructure. It also suggests reconsideration of a "public utility" model for the OTC market infrastructure.

Author: Mr.Manmohan Singh
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451982763
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 17

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To mitigate systemic risk, some regulators have advocated the greater use of centralized counterparties (CCPs) to clear Over-The-Counter (OTC) derivatives trades. Regulators should be cognizant that large banks active in the OTC derivatives market do not hold collateral against all the positions in their trading book and the paper proves an estimate of this under-collateralization. Whatever collateral is held by banks is allowed to be rehypothecated (or re-used) to others. Since CCPs would require all positions to have collateral against them, off-loading a significant portion of OTC derivatives transactions to central counterparties (CCPs) would require large increases in posted collateral, possibly requiring large banks to raise more capital. These costs suggest that most large banks will be reluctant to offload their positions to CCPs, and the paper proposes an appropriate capital levy on remaining positions to encourage the transition.

Author: Olga Lewandowska
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN: 3838214447
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 222

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The financial crisis of 2007–2009 exposed the weaknesses of the global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market such as limited transparency regarding risk exposures, poor counterparty risk management practices, and the risk of contagion arising from interconnectedness in this market. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, regulators introduced worldwide legislative and regulatory changes aimed at increasing the transparency and stability of the financial markets. In this book, Dr. Olga Lewandowska explores those novel regulatory solutions and their impact. The main focus is on central counterparty (CCP) clearing that became mandatory for OTC derivatives under the new regulatory paradigm. In four research papers, she analyzes CCP from different risk perspectives and based on four diverse research methods. Her book offers a comprehensive assessment of the risk-reduction potential of the CCPs, their implications for the financial markets, and the practical challenges in the implementation of the recent financial market reforms.

Author: Ellis William Tallman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Australia
Languages : en
Pages : 56

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This paper examines the information provided by financial aggregates as predictors of real output and inflation. We employ vector autoregression (VAR) techniques to summarise the information in the data, providing evidence on the incremental forecasting value of financial aggregates in a range of forecasting systems for these variables. The in-sample results suggest significant predictive power in only a small number of cases. We then test the forecast performance of the VAR systems for two years out-of-sample in order to mimic more closely the real-time forecasting problem faced by policymakers. Overall, both in-sample and out-of-sample results suggest no robust finding of exploitable information for forecasting purposes in any of the financial aggregates under examination. There is some evidence that the aggregates yield improved forecasts late in the sample period, but there is insufficient subsequent data to draw robust conclusions from this.

Author: Hal S. Scott
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1388

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business
Languages : en
Pages : 76

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