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Author: Lena Dräger Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Using a new consumer survey dataset, we show that macroeconomic preferences affect expectations and economic decisions through different channels. While household expectations are on average inversely related to preferences, households with the same inflation or interest rate expectations can differently assess whether the level of the corresponding variable is appropriate or too high/too low. This "hidden heterogeneity" in expectations is correlated with sociodemographic characteristics and affects durable spending and saving decisions. We also show that the variation in inflation preferences can be explained with risk preferences. Overall, this adds a new dimension to the definition of anchored expectations.
Author: Lena Dräger Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Using a new consumer survey dataset, we show that macroeconomic preferences affect expectations and economic decisions through different channels. While household expectations are on average inversely related to preferences, households with the same inflation or interest rate expectations can differently assess whether the level of the corresponding variable is appropriate or too high/too low. This "hidden heterogeneity" in expectations is correlated with sociodemographic characteristics and affects durable spending and saving decisions. We also show that the variation in inflation preferences can be explained with risk preferences. Overall, this adds a new dimension to the definition of anchored expectations.
Author: Lena Dräger Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Using a new consumer survey dataset, we document a new dimension of heterogeneity in inflation expectations that has implications for consumption and saving decisions as well as monetary policy transmission. We show that German households with the same inflation expectations differently assess whether the level of expected inflation and of nominal interest rates is appropriate or too high/too low. The 'hidden heterogeneity' in expectations stemming from these opinions is related to demographic characteristics and affects current and planned spending in addition to the Euler equation effect of the perceived real interest rate. Furthermore, these differences in opinions affect German households differently depending on whether they are renters or homeowners.
Author: Tobias F. Rötheli Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 16
Book Description
This study applies the concept of pattern-based inflation expectations to the measurement of U.S. real rates of interest. The measure of expected inflation builds on a laboratory-based survey of expectations. We show how our measures of real interest rates differ from measures based on the Michigan survey of inflation expectations. In econometric estimates analyzing the determinants of real interest rates we find no evidence of an effect of the heterogeneity of inflation expectations. However, higher uncertainty regarding expected inflation tends to increase the real rate of interest. We show that this risk premium may account for findings suggesting the non-stationarity of the real rate of interest.
Author: Andreas Fagereng Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484370066 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 69
Book Description
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
Author: Laurent Ferrara Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319790757 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 300
Book Description
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Author: Christopher D. Carroll Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 022612665X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 517
Book Description
Robust and reliable measures of consumer expenditures are essential for analyzing aggregate economic activity and for measuring differences in household circumstances. Many countries, including the United States, are embarking on ambitious projects to redesign surveys of consumer expenditures, with the goal of better capturing economic heterogeneity. This is an appropriate time to examine the way consumer expenditures are currently measured, and the challenges and opportunities that alternative approaches might present. Improving the Measurement of Consumer Expenditures begins with a comprehensive review of current methodologies for collecting consumer expenditure data. Subsequent chapters highlight the range of different objectives that expenditure surveys may satisfy, compare the data available from consumer expenditure surveys with that available from other sources, and describe how the United States’s current survey practices compare with those in other nations.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464815453 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 403
Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author: Lena Dräger
Author: Lena Dräger
Author: Lena Dräger
Author: Tobias F. Rötheli
Author: Carlos Madeira
Author: Andreas Fagereng
Author: Laurent Ferrara
Author: 
Author: Christopher D. Carroll
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Author: Kenneth Joseph Arrow