The Great Moderation and the US External Imbalance PDF Download

Author: Alessandra Fogli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Balance of payments
Languages : en
Pages : 28

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Book Description
"The early 1980s marked the onset of two striking features of the current world macro-economy: the fall in US business cycles volatility (the great moderation) and the large and persistent US external imbalance. In this paper we argue that an external imbalance is a natural consequence of the great moderation. If a country experiences a fall in volatility greater than the one of its partners, its incentives to do precautionary savings fall and this results in a permanent deterioration of its external balance. In order to assess how much of the current US imbalance can be explained by this channel, we consider a standard two country business cycle model in which households are subject to business cycles shocks they cannot perfectly insure against. The model suggests that a fall in business cycle volatility like the one observed in the US can account for about 20% of the actual US external imbalance."--Authors' abstract.

Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226066959
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 545

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Book Description
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Author: Maurice Obstfeld
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Balance of trade
Languages : en
Pages : 64

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Book Description
"Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website

Author: Yang Li
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811061505
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 266

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Book Description
This book focuses on global financial systems. After summarising historical financial institutions, it subsequently uses economic and econometrical models to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of these institutions and their role in the history. Readers, especially international readers, will be introduced to prominent Chinese scholars’ ideas and views on these issues. The perspective of this book is, of course, a Chinese one. As such, readers will learn how Chinese people view global financial systems, even those dominated by the West, what they think about future global finance, etc. As such, the book offers intriguing and revealing insights for researchers and a broader readership alike.

Author: Pietro Cova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451872119
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42

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Book Description
This paper investigates the role played by emerging Asia in the emergence and evolution of the global trade imbalances. Based on simulations in a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that a productivity slowdown in the non-tradable sector of these economies in the second half of the 1990s fits regional macroeconomic developments relatively well, but has limited spillover effect to the United States trade balance. In contrast, an increase in the desired level of emerging Asia net foreign assets starting in 2001 not only fits regional developments relatively well, but also has a significant spillover effect to the United States.

Author: Nicoletta Batini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451872100
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41

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Book Description
This paper investigates the role played by total factor productivity (TFP) in the tradable and nontradable sectors of the United States, the euro area, and Japan in the emergence and evolution of today's global trade imbalances. Simulation results based on a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy, and using the EU KLEMS database, indicate that TFP developments in these economies can account for a significant fraction of the total deterioration in the U.S. trade balance since 1999, as well as account for some the surpluses in the euro area and Japan. Differences in TFP developments across sectors can also partially explain the evolution of the real effective value of the U.S. dollar during this period.

Author: Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475576447
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43

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Book Description
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.

Author: Gita Gopinath
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444543155
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 773

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Book Description
What conclusions can be drawn from recent advances in international trade and international macroeconomics? New datasets, theoretical models, and empirical studies have resulted in fresh questions about the world trade and payment system. These chapters--six on trade and six on international macroeconomics--reveal the richness that researchers have uncovered in recent years. The chapters on foreign trade present, among other subjects, new integrated multisector analytical frameworks, the use of gravity equations for the estimation of trade flows, the role of domestic institutions in shaping comparative advantage, and international trade agreements. On international macroeconomics, chapters explore the relation between exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables; risk sharing, allocation of capital across countries, and current account dynamics; and sovereign debt and financial crises. By addressing new issues while enabling deeper and sharper analyses of old issues, this volume makes a significant contribution to our understanding of the global economy. - Systematically illuminates and interprets recent developments in research on international trade and international macroeconomics - Focuses on newly developing questions and opportunities for future research - Presents multiple perspectives on ways to understand the global economy

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589068203
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 248

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Book Description
Studies of the impact of trade openness on growth are based either on crosscountry analysis—which lacks transparency—or case studies—which lack statistical rigor. This paper applies a transparent econometric method drawn from the treatment evaluation literature (matching estimators) to make the comparison between treated (that is, open) and control (that is, closed) countries explicit while remaining within a statistical framework. Matching estimators highlight that common cross-country evidence is based on rather far-fetched country comparisons, which stem from the lack of common support of treated and control countries in the covariate space. The paper therefore advocates paying more attention to appropriate sample restriction in crosscountry macro research.

Author: Eric Helleiner
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 0801457491
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 267

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Book Description
For half a century, the United States has garnered substantial political and economic benefits as a result of the dollar's de facto role as a global currency. In recent years, however, the dollar's preponderant position in world markets has come under challenge. The dollar has been more volatile than ever against foreign currencies, and various nations have switched to non-dollar instruments in their transactions. China and the Arab Gulf states continue to hold massive amounts of U.S. government obligations, in effect subsidizing U.S. current account deficits, and those holdings are a point of potential vulnerability for American policy. What is the future of the U.S. dollar as an international currency? Will predictions of its demise end up just as inaccurate as those that have accompanied major international financial crises since the early 1970s? Analysts disagree, often profoundly, in their answers to these questions. In The Future of the Dollar, leading scholars of dollar's international role bring multidisciplinary perspectives and a range of contrasting predictions to the question of the dollar's future. This timely book provides readers with a clear sense of why such disagreements exist and it outlines a variety of future scenarios and the possible political implications for the United States and the world.