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Author: Martin Eichenbaum Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 022639574X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 517
Book Description
This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.
Author: Martin Eichenbaum Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 022639574X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 517
Book Description
This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.
Author: Peter Pogany Publisher: iUniverse ISBN: 1491738995 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 106
Book Description
Just to maintain our standard of living, we need to grow the worldwide economy at an unsustainable rate. As we seek to hit such lofty targets, were bound to deplete our resources and cause environmental crises on a scale that we have never seen before. Revolutions, terrorism, and wars will follow. Peter Pogany examines the problems we face and argues that human culture is governed by thermodynamic cycles of steady states interrupted by chaotic transitions. Specifically, he postulates that a steady state was interrupted by World War I, with a chaotic transition following World War II, which has led us to the current world order. His theory predicts that global society is drifting toward a new form of self-organization that will recognize limits to demographic-economic expansion but only after we go through a new chaotic transition that will start sometime between now and the 2030s. Havoc, They Name is Twenty-First Century, delivers sobering thoughts on where the world is headed, but it also offers a glimpse of a bright future that we can embrace once we get through the darkness to come.
Author: Reda Cherif Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513537865 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 212
Book Description
The “Gulf Falcons”—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—have high living standards as a result of large income flows from oil. The decline of oil prices between summer 2014 and fall 2015 underscores the urgency for the Gulf Falcons to diversify away from their current heavy reliance on oil exports. This book discusses attempts at diversification in the Middle East and North Africa and the complex choices policymakers face. It brings together the views of academics and policymakers to offer practical advice for future efforts to increase productivity growth.
Author: S. V. Buldyrev Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1316811875 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 239
Book Description
At the intersection between statistical physics and rigorous econometric analysis, this powerful new framework sheds light on how innovation and competition shape the growth and decline of companies and industries. Analyzing various sources of data including a unique micro level database which collects historic data on the sales of more than 3,000 firms and 50,000 products in 20 countries, the authors introduce and test a model of innovation and proportional growth, which relies on minimal assumptions and accounts for the empirically observed regularities. Through a combination of extensive stochastic simulations and statistical tests, the authors investigate to what extent their simple assumptions are falsified by empirically observable facts. Physicists looking for application of their mathematical and modelling skills to relevant economic problems as well as economists interested in the explorative analysis of extensive data sets and in a physics-orientated way of thinking will find this book a key reference.
Author: Mr.Christian H Ebeke Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484326997 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations in Europe. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (the granular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper also assesses the strength of spillovers from large firms onto SMEs. Using firm-level data covering over 14 million firms and eight european countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain), we find that: (i) 40 percent of the variance in GDP in the sample can be explained by idiosyncratic shocks at large firms; (ii) positive granular shocks at large firms spill over to domestic SMEs’ output, especially if SMEs’ balance sheets are healthy and if SMEs belong to the services and manufacturing sectors.
Author: Mr.Constant Lonkeng Ngouana Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475575696 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 29
Book Description
This paper finds a negative relationship between the employment share of the service sector and the volatility of aggregate output in the OECD—after controlling for the level of financial development. This result reflects volatility differentials across sectors: labor productivity is more volatile in agriculture and manufacturing than in services. Aggregate output would therefore become less volatile as labor moves away from agriculture and manufacturing and toward the service sector. I examine the quantitative role of these labor shifts—termed structural transformation—on the volatility of aggregate output in OECD countries. I first calibrate to the U.S. economy an indivisible labor model in which the reallocation of labor across sectors emerges endogenously from sectoral labor productivity growth differentials. The setup is then used to generate the time path of labor shares in agriculture, manufacturing and services in individual countries. Finally, I perform a set of counterfactual analyzes in which the reallocation of labor across sectors is constrained endogenously. I find that the secular shift of labor towards the service sector was volatility-reducing in OECD countries during 1970–2006.
Author: Ludovico Alcorta Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0192590375 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 688
Book Description
New Perspectives on Structural Change is a comprehensive edited volume that outlines both the historical roots and state-of-the-art debates on the role of structural change in the process of economic development, including both orthodox and heterodox perspectives and contributions from prominent scholars in this field. The volume consists of four main sections. The first section covers the theoretical foundations of the structural change literature. The second section presents an empirical overview of the major trends of structural change, using up-to-date data sources and methods. The third section presents a broad ranging empirical analysis of the drivers of structural change. The fourth section examines how processes such as inclusive growth, poverty reduction, productive employment, the global income distribution, and environmental sustainability are affected by structural change, and how they can be influenced by policy.
Author: Dongyeol Lee Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498317286 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 25
Book Description
In the last two decades, manufacturing industries in Korea have become more concentrated, and interconnectedness across industries and to foreign countries has risen via vertical relationships and trade linkages. This paper investigates the transmission of economic shocks in such a highly concentrated and interconnected structure, focusing on the role of vertical and trade linkages and using the industry-level international input-output data. The results suggest that, first, the role of vertical and trade linkages in propagating growth shocks from both domestic sources and external sources is important. Second, the growth impact of a few key sources of economic shocks is relatively large. These findings highlight that economic shocks in a few key industries and/or major trading partners that are transmitted through vertical and trade linkages can lead to large swings in the overall economy. This paper contributes to the understanding of the potential interactions between the industrial structure and economic growth and stability.
Author: MissNan Li Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484354583 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 52
Book Description
This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. We find that the Great Recession is largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks— which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility—and large spillovers of negative financerelated shocks. Moreover, in contrast with the earlier literature that failed to find a significant role of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages across sectors) in driving variability in aggregate industry output, this study allows spillovers of shocks to operate through other mechanisms intertemporally. We find that prior to the recession the majority of aggregate fluctuations is explained by sector-specific shocks.
Author: George M. Constantinides Publisher: Newnes ISBN: 0444594736 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 873
Book Description
The 12 articles in this second of two parts condense recent advances on investment vehicles, performance measurement and evaluation, and risk management into a coherent springboard for future research. Written by world leaders in asset pricing research, they present scholarship about the 2008 financial crisis in contexts that highlight both continuity and divergence in research. For those who seek authoritative perspectives and important details, this volume shows how the boundaries of asset pricing have expanded and at the same time have grown sharper and more inclusive. - Offers analyses by top scholars of recent asset pricing scholarship - Explains how the 2008 financial crises affected theoretical and empirical research - Covers core and newly developing fields
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Author: Peter Pogany
Author: Reda Cherif
Author: S. V. Buldyrev
Author: Mr.Christian H Ebeke
Author: Mr.Constant Lonkeng Ngouana
Author: Ludovico Alcorta
Author: Dongyeol Lee
Author: MissNan Li
Author: George M. Constantinides