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Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Equilibrium Exchange Rates PDF Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401144117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 353

Book Description
How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.

Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Equilibrium Exchange Rates PDF Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401144117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 353

Book Description
How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.

Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates PDF Author: John Williamson
Publisher: Peterson Institute
ISBN: 9780881320763
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 608

Book Description
The problems of exchange rate misalignments and the resulting payments imbalances have plagued the world economy for decades. At the Louvre Accord of 1987, the Group of Five industrial countries adopted a system of reference ranges for exchange rate management, influenced by proposals of C. Fred Bergstan and John Williamson for a target zone system. The reference range approach has, however, been operated only intermittently and half-heartedly, and questions continue to be raised in policy and scholarly circles about the design and operation of a full-fledged target zone regime. This volume, with chapters by leading international economists, explores one crucial issue in the design of a target zone system: the problem of calculating Williamson's concept of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER). Williamson contributes an overview of the policy and analytic issues and a second chapter on his own calculations.

The Equilibrium Approach to Exchange Rates

The Equilibrium Approach to Exchange Rates PDF Author: Prakash Apte
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 56

Book Description
We characterize the equilibrium exchange rate in a general equilibrium economy without imposing strong restrictions on the output processes, preferences, or commodity market imperfections. The nominal exchange rate is determined by differences in initial wealths the currencies of richer countries tend to be overvalued by PPP standards and by differences of marginal indirect utilities of total nominal spending. Changes in the exchange rate mirror differences in growth rates of real spending weighted by relative risk-aversion (which can be time-varying and can differ across countries), and in the case of non-homothetic utility functions, differences in inflation rates computed from marginal spending weights. Thus, standard regression or cointegration tests of PPP suffer from missing-variables biases and ignore variations in risk aversions across countries and over time. We also present cointegration tests of the version of the model with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and homothetic preferences. When nominal spending is given an independent role (next to prices) in the short-term dynamics, both PPP and the CRRA model become acceptable.

Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates PDF Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 75

Book Description
In this paper we present a critical overview of differnt methods of constructing an equilibrium exchange rate. The recent literature on purchasing power parity (PPP) indicates that on its own PPP is not a good vehicle for defining an equilibrium exchange rate. Rather, we argue that the latter can only be recover from a model in which the real determinants of exchange rates are explicitly modelled. The advantages and disadvantages of various such models are discussed. In particular, the internal-external balance approach to defining an equilibrium real exchange rate is disccused, and this method is compared to the so-called behavioural equilibrium approach. Finally, an approach which uses purely time series methods to construct an equilibrium exchange rate is also discussed.

The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments

The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments PDF Author: Jacob Frenkel
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135043493
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 389

Book Description
This book collects together the basic documents of an approach to the theory and policy of the balance of payments developed in the 1970s. The approach marked a return to the historical traditions of international monetary theory after some thirty years of departure from them – a departure occasioned by the international collapse of the 1930s, the Keynesian Revolution and a long period of war and post-war reconstruction in which the international monetary system was fragmented by exchange controls, currency inconvertibility and controls over international trade and capital movements.

Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi

Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi PDF Author: Mr.Johan Mathisen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451852789
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26

Book Description
This paper computes Malawi's equilibrium real exchange rate as a function of its fundamentals as derived from economic theory. It finds evidence in favor of the equilibrium approach to exchange rate determination, with several variables (particularly government consumption and real per capita growth) found to drive movements in the time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate. The results also indicate that following a shock there is a rapid reversion of the real exchange rate to its time-varying equilibrium, with a half-life of reversion of about 11 months.

The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate

The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate PDF Author: Mr.Mark P. Taylor
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451978804
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28

Book Description
We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking rational expectations monetary model. We demonstrate, however, that the monetary model is validated as a long-run equilibrium condition. Moreover, imposing the long-run monetary model restrictions in a dynamic error correction framework leads to exchange rate forecasts which are superior to those generated by a random walk forecasting model.

Exchange Rate Economics

Exchange Rate Economics PDF Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1134801262
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 465

Book Description
First published in 2007. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence is the second edition of Floating Exchange Rates: Theories and Evidence, and builds on the successful content and structure of the previous edition, but has been comprehensively updated and expanded to include additional literature on the determination of both fixed and floating exchange rates. Core topics covered include: • the purchasing power parity hypothesis and the PPP puzzle; • the monetary and portfolio-balance approaches to exchange rates; • the new open economy macroeconomics approach to exchange rates; and • the determination of exchange rates in target zone models and speculative attack models. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence also includes extensive discussion of recent econometric work on exchange rates with a particular focus on equilibrium exchange rates and measuring exchange rate misalignment, as well as discussion on the non-fundamentals-based approaches to exchange rate behaviour, such as the market microstructure approach. The book will appeal to academics and postgraduate students with an interest in all aspects of international finance and will also be of interest to practitioners concerned with issues relating to equilibrium exchange rates and the forecastability of currencies in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals.

An Equilibrium Theory of Nominal Exchange Rates

An Equilibrium Theory of Nominal Exchange Rates PDF Author: Marcus Hagedorn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fiscal policy
Languages : en
Pages : 75

Book Description
This paper proposes an equilibrium theory of nominal exchange rates, which offers a new perspective on various issues in open economy macroeconomics. The nominal exchange rate and portfolio choices are jointly determined in equilibrium, thus providing a new approach to overcoming the indeterminacy results in Kareken and Wallace (1981). The distinctive features of this theory are that the nominal exchange rate is determined in international financial markets, that the risk premium and UIP deviations are fully endogenous equilibrium objects and that the real exchange rate inherits its properties from the nominal exchange rate. In terms of policy, this novel theory implies that a country with an exchange rate peg and free asset mobility faces a tetralemma and not a trilemma, because it loses not only monetary policy independence but also fiscal policy independence.

Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Equilibrium Exchange Rates PDF Author: Peter Isard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54

Book Description
The paper describes six different methodologies that have been used to assess the equilibrium values of exchange rates and discusses their limitations. It applies several of the approaches to data for the United States as of 2006, illustrates that different approaches sometimes provide substantially different assessments, and asks which methodologies deserve the most weight in such situations. It argues that while it is generally desirable to consider the implications of several different approaches, since different approaches provide different types of perspectives, two of the methodologies seem particularly relevant for identifying threats to macroeconomic stability and growth.