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Author: Rasmus Fatum Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange rates Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
"The Bank of Canada is one of very few central banks that has made records of the intraday timing of its intervention operations available to researchers. The authors investigate the effectiveness of sterilized intervention in the Canadian dollar exchange rate market over the period January 1995 to September 1998. They employ an event study methodology and different criteria for success, and use both daily data and high-frequency (intraday) intervention and exchange rate data. The time period covers two distinct intervention regimes, characterized by mechanistic and discretionary intervention, respectively. Furthermore, the authors address the issue of currency comovements by carrying out the analysis using both the readily observable Canadian dollar/U.S. dollar exchange rate and the Canadian dollar/U.S. dollar exchange rate adjusted for general currency co-movements against the U.S. dollar. When they analyze the high-frequency data, the authors find evidence that intervention systematically affects movements in the Canadian dollar/U.S. dollar exchange rate and in the desired direction, along with some evidence that intervention is associated with a reduction of exchange rate volatility. When investigating exchange rate movements around intervention events using daily data, the authors find some evidence supportive of effectiveness. These effects, however, are weakened when adjusting for currency comovements against the U.S. dollar."--Website.
Author: Rasmus Fatum Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange rates Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
"The Bank of Canada is one of very few central banks that has made records of the intraday timing of its intervention operations available to researchers. The authors investigate the effectiveness of sterilized intervention in the Canadian dollar exchange rate market over the period January 1995 to September 1998. They employ an event study methodology and different criteria for success, and use both daily data and high-frequency (intraday) intervention and exchange rate data. The time period covers two distinct intervention regimes, characterized by mechanistic and discretionary intervention, respectively. Furthermore, the authors address the issue of currency comovements by carrying out the analysis using both the readily observable Canadian dollar/U.S. dollar exchange rate and the Canadian dollar/U.S. dollar exchange rate adjusted for general currency co-movements against the U.S. dollar. When they analyze the high-frequency data, the authors find evidence that intervention systematically affects movements in the Canadian dollar/U.S. dollar exchange rate and in the desired direction, along with some evidence that intervention is associated with a reduction of exchange rate volatility. When investigating exchange rate movements around intervention events using daily data, the authors find some evidence supportive of effectiveness. These effects, however, are weakened when adjusting for currency comovements against the U.S. dollar."--Website.
Author: Gustavo Adler Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475547234 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
We study the use of foreign exchange (FX) intervention as an additional policy instrument in an environment with learning, where agents infer the central bank policy rules from its policy actions. Under full information, a central bank focused on stabilizing output and inflation can achieve better outcomes by using FX intervention as an additional policy tool. Under policy uncertainty, where agents perceive that monetary policy may also have exchange rate stabilization goals, the use of FX intervention entails a trade-off, reducing output volatility while increasing inflation volatility. While having an additional policy tool is always beneficial, we find that the optimal magnitude of intervention is higher in monetary policy regimes with lower uncertainty. These results indicate that the benefits of using FX intervention as an additional stabilization tool are greater in regimes where monetary policy is credibly focused on output and inflation stabilization.
Author: Romain Lafarguette Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513569406 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
Author: Felix Hüfner Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3790826723 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 180
Book Description
Foreign exchange intervention is frequently being used by central banks in countries which have a floating exchange rate. Most theoretical monetary policy models, however, do not take this phenomenon into account. This book contributes to close this gap between theory and practice by interpreting foreign exchange intervention as an additional monetary policy instrument for inflation targeting central banks. In-depth empirical analyses of the foreign exchange operations and interest rate policy of five inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) demonstrate how foreign exchange intervention is used in practice.
Author: Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 9781589064218 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 58
Book Description
Despite increasing exchange rate flexibility, central banks in emerging markets still intervene in their foreign exchange markets for several reasons. In doing so, they face many operational questions, including on the degree of transparency and the choice of markets and counterparties. This paper identifies elements of best practice in official foreign exchange intervention, presents survey evidence on intervention practices in developing countries, and assesses the effectiveness of intervention in Mexico and Turkey.
Author: Roberto Pereira Guimarães Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451854641 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
This paper analyzes the effects of intervention on the level and volatility of the exchange rate in Mexico and Turkey, two emerging countries that have floating exchange rate regimes. The paper finds mixed evidence on the effectiveness of intervention. In Mexico, foreign exchange sales have a small impact on the exchange rate level and raise short-term volatility, while in Turkey, intervention does not appear to affect the exchange rate level but reduces its shortterm volatility. In both cases, the findings are consistent with officially stated policy objectives, which aim to minimize the effect of intervention on the exchange rate, but cast doubt on claims that intervention is a useful tool for smoothing volatility. Although these findings cannot be generalized to other emerging markets, intervention's apparently limited effectiveness highlights the need for central banks to use their scarce foreign reserves selectively and parsimoniously.
Author: Gustavo Adler Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513534602 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
We study the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variables panel approach. We find robust evidence that intervention affects the level of the exchange rate in an economically meaningful way. A purchase of foreign currency of 1 percentage point of GDP causes a depreciation of the nominal and real exchange rates in the ranges of [1.7-2.0] percent and [1.4-1.7] percent respectively. The effects are found to be quite persistent. The paper also explores possible asymmetric effects, and whether effectiveness depends on the depth of domestic financial markets.
Author: Julia Faltermeier Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475589239 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 36
Book Description
We study the optimal foreign exchange (FX) intervention policy in response to a positive terms of trade shock and associated Dutch disease episode in a small open economy model. We find that during a Dutch disease episode tradable production drops below the socially optimal level, resulting in lower welfare under learningby- doing (LBD) externalities. FX reserves accumulation improves welfare by preventing a large appreciation of the real exchange rate and by inducing an efficient reallocation between the tradable and non-tradable sectors. For an empirically plausible parametrization of LBD externalities, the model predicts that in response to a 10 percent increase in commodity prices FX reserves should increase by 1.5 percent of GDP. We also find that the welfare gains from optimally using FX reserves are twice as high as the gains from relying only on monetary policy. These results suggest that FX intervention is a beneficial policy to counteract the loss of competitiveness during a Dutch disease episode.
Author: Roberto Pereira Guimarães Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 145185711X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 45
Book Description
This paper offers guidance on the operational aspects of official intervention in the foreign exchange market, particularly in developing countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. A brief survey of the literature and country experience is followed by an analysis of the objectives, timing, amount, degree of transparency, and choice of markets and counterparties in conducting intervention. The analysis highlights the difficulty of detecting exchange rate misalignments and disorderly markets, and argues in favor of parsimony in official intervention. Determining the timing and amount of intervention is a highly subjective excercise, and some degree of discretion is almost necessary, though policy rules may serve as "rules of thumb."
Author: Rasmus Fatum
Author: Rasmus Fatum
Author: Rasmus Fatum
Author: Gustavo Adler
Author: Romain Lafarguette
Author: Felix Hüfner
Author: Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko
Author: Roberto Pereira Guimarães
Author: Gustavo Adler
Author: Julia Faltermeier
Author: Roberto Pereira Guimarães