The Economics of Climate Change in Zambia PDF Download

Author: Zambia. Ministry of Tourism, Environment, and Natural Resources
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 88

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Author: Detelinova, Iva
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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Book Description
Climate change is projected to cause an increase in average temperatures in Zambia and a decline in rainfall, particularly in the southern and western regions. The country experiences high rainfall variability, which climate change is expected to exacerbate, resulting in likely higher frequency and intensity of already reoccurring extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods. The combined effect of the temperature and precipitation projections is anticipated to cause a decrease in water availability at national level and to adversely affect the Zambezi, Kafue, and Luangwa River Basins. Overall, these trends will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in southwestern Zambia, as the region is already prone to droughts (as well as floods in some parts). On the other hand, the northern parts of the country are projected to experience a slight increase in rainfall and to be overall relatively positively affected by climate change. The key sectors most likely to be significantly affected by climate change in Zambia include agriculture, road infrastructure, and energy. In agriculture, the key risk stemming from climate change is the projected lower maize yields, as this is the country’s staple crop. Other crops are also expected to be adversely affected by higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and increased occurrence of extreme events, particularly in southern and western Zambia. That said, changing climate conditions could create new agricultural opportunities in the north. Climate change is projected to negatively affect the livestock subsector, which will increase food security risks, particularly for subsistence farmers. In road infrastructure, the projected higher occurrence of flooding, especially in Lusaka Province, could have a knock-on effect for the rest of the economy, particularly if it damages key international corridors passing through this region and/or affects domestic supply chains. Zambia is significantly reliant on hydropower and is already experiencing severe power cuts due to drought. The risks in the sector are exacerbated by the location of key hydropower plants in the southern parts of the country and the projected drying up of main river basins. The electricity shortages have spillover effects on the rest of the economy, including the copper industry, Zambia’s key export. This has international implications, as Zambia is a top copper producer worldwide, and demand for copper is expected to increase significantly due to its crucial role in various green technologies. Thus, absent adaptation measures, the adverse impact of climate change in Zambia could affect global mitigation efforts and strategies.

Author:
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37

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Author: William R. Cline
Publisher: Peterson Institute
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 462

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This study examines the costs and benefits of an aggressive program of global action to limit the greenhouse effect. Cline summarizes the issues from the standpoint of an economist and estimates the damages of long-term warming.

Author: James Thurlow
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Economy-wide and hydrological-crop models are combined to estimate and compare the economic impacts of current climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, simulation results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by four percent over a ten-year period and pulls over two percent of the population below the poverty line. Socio-economic impacts are much larger during major drought years, thus underscoring the importance of extreme weather events in determining climate damages. Three climate change scenarios are simulated based on projections for 2025. Results indicate that, in the worst case scenario, damages caused by climate change are half the size of those from current variability. We conclude that current climate variability, rather than climate change, will remain the more binding constraint on economic development in Zambia, at least over the next few decades. -- climate change ; weather variability ; economic growth ; poverty ; Zambia

Author: Stephane Hallegatte
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464806748
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 227

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Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.

Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264073612
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 305

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Against the background of a projected doubling of world greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, this book explores feasible ways to abate them at least cost.

Author: Lawrence Goulder
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231545932
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 354

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Book Description
Without significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, climate change will cause substantial damage to the environment and the economy. The scope of the threat demands a close look at the policies capable of reducing the harm. Confronting the Climate Challenge presents a unique framework for evaluating the impacts of a range of U.S. climate-policy options, both for the economy overall and for particular household groups, industries, and regions. Lawrence Goulder and Marc Hafstead focus on four alternative approaches for reducing carbon dioxide emissions: a revenue-neutral carbon tax, a cap-and-trade program, a clean energy standard, and an increase in the federal gasoline tax. They demonstrate that these policies—if designed correctly—not only can achieve emissions reductions at low cost but also can avoid placing undesirable burdens on low-income household groups or especially vulnerable industries. Goulder and Hafstead apply a multiperiod, economy-wide general equilibrium model that is distinct in its attention to investment dynamics and to interactions between climate policy and the tax system. Exploiting the unique features of the model, they contrast the shorter- and longer-term policy impacts and focus on alternative ways of feeding back—or “recycling”—policy-generated revenues to the private sector. Their work shows how careful policy design, including the judicious use of policy-generated revenues, can achieve desired reductions in carbon dioxide emissions at low cost, avoid uneven impacts across household income groups, and prevent losses of profit in the most vulnerable U.S. industries. The urgency of the climate problem demands comprehensive action, and Confronting the Climate Challenge offers important insights that can help elevate policy discussions and spur needed efforts on the climate front.

Author: James Thurlow
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 63

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Book Description
We combined a hydro-crop model with a dynamic general equilibrium (DCGE) model to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on economic growth and poverty reduction in Zambia. The hydro-crop model is first used to estimate the impact of climate variability on crop yields over the past three decades and such analysis is done at the crop level for each of Zambia's five agroecological zones, supported by the identification of zonal-level extreme weather events using a drought index analysis. Agricultural production is then disaggregated into these five agroelcological zones in the DCGE model. Drawing on the hydro-crop model results at crop level across the five zones, a series of simulations are designed using the DCGE model to assess the impact of climate variability on economic growth and poverty. We find that climate variability costs the country US$4.3 billion over a 10-year period. These losses reach as high as US$7.1 billion under Zambia's worst rainfall scenario. Moreover, most of the negative impacts of climate variability occur in the southern and central regions of the country, where food insecurity is most vulnerable to climate shocks. Overall, climate variability keeps 300,000 people below the national poverty line by 2016. A similar method is also used to examine the potential impact of climate change on the economy based on projections of a well-known global climate model and two hypothetical scenarios. We find that the effects of current patterns of climate variability dominate over those of potential climate change in the near future (until 2025). Differences in assumptions regarding rainfall changes influence both the size (to a large degree) and direction (to a lesser extent) of the economic impact of climate change. If rainfall declines by 15 percent, then climate change enhances the negative effects of climate variability by a factor of 1.5 and pushes an additional 30,000 people below the poverty line over a 10-year period. Moreover, the effects of climate change and variability compound each other, with the number of poor people rising to 74,000 if climate change is coupled with Zambia's worst 10-year historical rainfall pattern.

Author: W. Neil Adger
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521764858
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 533

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Book Description
This book presents the latest science and social science research on whether the world can adapt to climate change.