Author: Stephen N. MorganPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture
Author: Stephen N. MorganRetaliatory Tariffs and U. S. Agriculture
Author: Anita RegmiPublisher:
ISBN: 9781693696367
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52
Book Description
Certain foreign nations have targeted U.S. food and agricultural products with retaliatory tariffs since early 2018 in response to U.S. Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and Section 301 tariffs levied on U.S. imports from China. Retaliatory tariffs have made imports of U.S. agricultural products relatively more expensive compared to similar products from competitor nations. In the short run, U.S. shipments of products to countries with retaliatory tariffs have declined, reducing overall global demand for affected U.S. agricultural products and driving down the prices of U.S. agricultural commodities. Depending on the length and depth of the tariffs and the range of products affected, some experts caution that the long-run trade impacts could inflict further harm as U.S. competitor countries have an incentive to expand their agricultural production. The total value of exports of U.S. food and agricultural products levied retaliatory tariffs in 2018 was $22 billion, down 27% from $30 billion in 2017. China accounted for about 80% of the total affected trade in both years. Despite the retaliatory tariffs, U.S. agricultural exports rose in 2018 to $140 billion from $138 billion in 2017, partly due to higher imports during the months leading up to the retaliatory tariffs and increased exports to other non-retaliating countries. With the continuation of retaliatory tariffs, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects U.S. agricultural exports to decline about 4% in 2019. While trade-aid packages may provide short-term financial assistance, some studies and critics of the President's actions caution that the long-term consequences of the retaliatory tariffs may present more challenges. Even as China has raised tariffs on U.S. imports, it has improved access to its markets for other exporting countries. Brazil, Russia and other countries are expanding their agricultural production to meet China's import demand. For example, Russia's investments during the past two decades have resulted in agricultural productivity growth ranging from 25% to 75%, with higher productivity growth along its southern region. Although still at relatively modest levels, China's total food and agricultural imports from Russia increased 61% between 2017 and 2018. The continuation of trade disputes and retaliatory tariffs may be of interest to Congress for the following reasons. Trade disputes have disrupted global markets and increased uncertainty in the farm input and output sectors. They may add to production costs, they have dampened exports, impacted farm income, and triggered additional federal assistance for the farm sector. In the short-run, there could be some transient benefits associated with various aspects of the agricultural sector. In the long-run, other countries may expand agricultural production, potentially displacing U.S. agricultural exports to become larger food and agricultural suppliers to China.
The Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Trade
Author: Colin A. CarterPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
This paper analyzes the short-run trade effects of retaliatory tariffs against agriculture and food exports from the United States. The results indicate that these tariffs caused a substantial decline in U.S. agriculture and food exports and induced a reorientation of international trade patterns. We find that losses in foreign trade with retaliatory countries outweigh the gains from trade with non-retaliatory countries by more than USD 14.4 billion. Our results also indicate that non-retaliatory countries accommodated the increased demand from retaliatory countries by reorienting their trade relationships. We find that countries in South America and Europe benefited the most from these adjustments gaining more than USD 13.5 billion in additional foreign sales. The effects of retaliatory tariff increases across products vary substantially, with soybeans and meat products experiencing the most considerable redistribution effects.
The Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs on Agriculture and Food Trade
Author: Colin A. CarterPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Food industry and trade
Languages : en
Pages : 47
Book Description
This paper analyzes the short-run trade effects of retaliatory tariffs against agriculture and food exports from the United States. The results indicate that these tariffs caused a substantial decline in U.S. agriculture and food exports and induced a reorientation of international trade patterns. We find that losses in foreign trade with retaliatory countries outweigh the gains from trade with non-retaliatory countries by more than USD 14.4 billion. Our results also indicate that non-retaliatory countries accommodated the increased demand from retaliatory countries by reorienting their trade relationships. We find that countries in South America and Europe benefited the most from these adjustments gaining more than USD 13.5 billion in additional foreign sales. The effects of retaliatory tariff increases across products vary substantially, with soybeans and meat products experiencing the most considerable redistribution effects.
The Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Trade
Author: Colin Andre CarterPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper analyzes the short-run trade effects of retaliatory tariffs against agriculture and food exports from the United States. The results indicate that these tariffs caused a substantial decline in U.S. agriculture and food exports and induced a reorientation of international trade patterns. We find that losses in foreign trade with retaliatory countries outweigh the gains from trade with non-retaliatory countries by more than USD 14.4 billion. Our results also indicate that non-retaliatory countries accommodated the increased demand from retaliatory countries by reorienting their trade relationships. We find that countries in South America and Europe benefited the most from these adjustments gaining more than USD 13.5 billion in additional foreign sales. The effects of retaliatory tariff increases across products vary substantially, with soybeans and meat products experiencing the most considerable redistribution effects.
Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports
Author: Help for the Heartland?
Author: David H. AutorPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : China
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
We study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China and other U.S. trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to U.S. import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and U.S. compensation programs. So far, the trade-war has not provided economic help to the U.S. heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered U.S. employment in newly-protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory U.S. agricultural subsidies. Nevertheless, consistent with expressive views of politics, the tariff war appears to have been a political success for the governing Republican party. Residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress. Foreign retaliatory tariffs only modestly weakened that support.
How Differing Trade Policies May Impact U.S. Agriculture
Author: Maksym ChepelievPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
In the last two years, the United States has reversed the post-World War II trend toward the lowering of trade barriers and a commitment towards multilateral free trade. Citing a need to “level the playing field” and hold trading partners accountable to their commitments, the current Administration has moved towards a more protectionist and perhaps mercantilist position vis-à-vis trade policy. One of the Administration's first actions in this regard was the decision to leave the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, followed thereafter by raising tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The Administration's actions on trade are likely to have significant implications for U.S. farmers as these actions target three of the largest markets for U.S. agricultural exports - Canada, China and Mexico - accounting for some 44%, and representing an average of $63 billion, of U.S. agricultural exports 2013 to 2015. Though the yet-to-be-ratified renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA or NAFTA 2.0), consolidates the gains from the original agreement and provides some additional modest market access for U.S. agricultural exports (an estimated $454 million), U.S. farmers still are facing strong headwinds and the possibility of a significant loss of export revenues. According to these estimates, the United States' withdrawal from the TPP reduces agricultural and food exports by $1.8 billion a year ($1.4 billion, with the offsetting $454 million of USMCA export gains). Following trade liberalization between the 11 remaining TPP members, there is an increase in trade within those countries, which substitutes away from U.S.-based imports and causes a corresponding loss in U.S. export markets. However, if the United States were to rejoin the TPP, the agreement would significantly benefit U.S. farmers -- the loss of $1.4 billion would turn into a gain of $2.9 billion in additional agricultural exports. If the current U.S. trade policy were to continue towards protectionism (i.e., with the U.S. withdrawal from TPP, with the global retaliatory tariffs and if the United States were to entirely withdraw from NAFTA), U.S. agricultural exports would drop by $21.8 billion. These negative trade impacts would be reflected in lower incomes for U.S. farmers, reduced agricultural land returns and farm labor displacement. On average, such an export reduction is equivalent to $4,000 per person employed in the agricultural and food sectors. This scenario would also result in an aggregate welfare loss of $42.5 billion to the U.S. economy, or over $340 per U.S. household. What does all this mean? It suggests that U.S. agriculture is entering a volatile period in international trade. The data suggests the sector currently risks losing much of the trade gains achieved over the past three decades. The analysis predicts that if the USMCA is approved, if the trade war ends and if the United States rejoins TPP, U.S. agriculture could see not only the gains of the past decades reinforced but could also realize the potential for additional trade gains. Needless to say, the outcome strongly impacts the future of the U.S. food and agriculture sector.
China's Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture
Author: Anita RegmiTariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy
Author: Alberto CavalloPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513518380
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 37
Book Description
We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy - particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China - on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to total prices paid by importers, suggesting the tariffs' incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, using product-level data from several large multi-national retailers, we demonstrate that the impact of the tariffs on retail prices is more mixed. Some affected product categories have seen sharp price increases, but the difference between affected and unaffected products is generally quite modest, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. These retailers' imports increased after the initial announcement of possible tariffs, but before their full implementation, so the intermediate passthrough of tariffs to their prices may not persist. Finally, in contrast to the case of foreign exporters facing US tariffs, we show that US exporters lowered their prices on goods subjected to foreign retaliatory tariffs compared to exports of non-targeted goods.