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Author: Michael G. Mattock Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: 0833041584 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 91
Book Description
The U.S. Air Force (USAF) needs accurate models to develop retention policies that ensure the force has a sufficient number of experienced officers to meet current and future requirements. The dynamic retention model (DRM) can be used to take into account the effect of the availability of multi-year contracts to certain classes of Air Force officers. Unlike the annualized cost of leaving (ACOL) model long used by researchers working on USAF personnel issues, the DRM takes into account the value an officer may place on future career flexibility in the face of uncertainty, and thus is particularly well suited to examining the effect of bonus programs that have service commitments, such as the Aviator Continuation Pay (ACP) program, which pays an annual bonus to pilots and certain groups of navigators and air battle managers who commit to extend their service for specified numbers of years or to a specified length of service.
Author: Michael G. Mattock Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: 0833041584 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 91
Book Description
The U.S. Air Force (USAF) needs accurate models to develop retention policies that ensure the force has a sufficient number of experienced officers to meet current and future requirements. The dynamic retention model (DRM) can be used to take into account the effect of the availability of multi-year contracts to certain classes of Air Force officers. Unlike the annualized cost of leaving (ACOL) model long used by researchers working on USAF personnel issues, the DRM takes into account the value an officer may place on future career flexibility in the face of uncertainty, and thus is particularly well suited to examining the effect of bonus programs that have service commitments, such as the Aviator Continuation Pay (ACP) program, which pays an annual bonus to pilots and certain groups of navigators and air battle managers who commit to extend their service for specified numbers of years or to a specified length of service.
Author: Glenn A. Gotz Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: 9780833005724 Category : United States Languages : en Pages : 86
Book Description
This report describes the theory and methodology for estimating the parameters of a dynamic retention model for Air Force officers. The model was designed to estimate voluntary retention rates under a broad range of compensation, retirement, and personnel policies. It is a decisions model of the decisionmaking process of individuals making stay/leave decisions over time in an uncertain environment, which allows it to predict policy changes that have no historical analogues. The report presents the theory and estimated parameters of the model, compares actual retention rates and those predicted by the model, and two competing models, and examines five illustrative changes in compensation policies. (Author).
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Accurate models are needed to help the USAF develop retention policies that will retain a sufficient number of officers having the right qualities. The Air Force, and researchers working on personnel issues for the Air Force and other services, have long used an annualized cost of leaving (ACOL) model to help determine how changes in compensation would affect retention. However, the ACOL model does not handle two important factors in retention decisions particularly well: future uncertainty and random "shocks." The advantage of the Dynamic Retention Model is that it allows us to model how officers might value future career flexibility in the face of uncertainty. This is important in evaluating how people will respond to contracts that obligate them to multiple years of service, such as those available under the ACP program. Advances in computer hardware and software have now made estimation of the DRM feasible on even low-end personal computers. The DRM can be used to explore different policy options by taking individual retention decisions and running them through various policy alternatives. For example, it can analyze the effect proposed changes to the ACP program, such as eliminating the until-20-YAS option or the elimination of the ACP program altogether. The DRM shows that eliminating the until-20-YAS option (while keeping the five-year contract option) results in only a small change to overall retention, while eliminating the ACP program altogether would result in the Air Force losing up to 15 percent of its most experienced officers.
Author: Glenn A. Gotz Publisher: ISBN: Category : History Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
A Dynamic Econometric Retention Model (DERM) is designed for studying the effects of alternative compensation policies on the retention behavior of Air Force officers, including the Uniformed Services Retirement Modernization Act, the President's Commission on Military Compensation, and the Uniformed Services Retirement Benefits Act. DERM is a model of sequential behavior containing the appropriate econometric method for estimating retention rate. The econometric method is a maximum likelihood procedure endogenously determined by the specification of the behavioral model. It differs from earlier approaches in that it explicitly considers behavioral effects flowing from decomposing the disturbance term into permanent and transitory components. An implication of DERM is that retention rates depend both on prospective future returns to remaining in the military and on past occurrences. If this is correct, then simple regression models should overpredict the retention gains of proposed compensation policies, exactly what happens in two recent reenlistment studies using regression analysis.
Author: Richard L. Fernandez Publisher: ISBN: Category : United States Languages : en Pages : 74
Book Description
This note is a nontechnical description of the Dynamic Retention Model (DRM), which facilities analyses of the costs and benefits of proposed changes in the major policies affecting military personnel including the level and structure of military compensation, the major parameters of the personnel system, and the nondisability retirement system. The DRM predicts a retention rate for a group at any particular point that depends both on future prospects and on history (promotions, pay, bonuses, etc.) for the group members. Because it models individual decisionmaking, the model can simulate the effects of policy changes that have no analogues in past policies. The authors demonstrate the flexibility of the model by comparing it with the Annualized Cost of Leaving (ACOL) model.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309678684 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 289
Book Description
The USAir Force human capital management (HCM) system is not easily defined or mapped. It affects virtually every part of the Air Force because workforce policies, procedures, and processes impact all offices and organizations that include Airmen and responsibilities and relationships change regularly. To ensure the readiness of Airmen to fulfill the mission of the Air Force, strategic approaches are developed and issued through guidance and actions of the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel and Services and the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Manpower and Reserve Affairs. Strengthening US Air Force Human Capital Management assesses and strengthens the various U.S. Air Force initiatives and programs working to improve person-job match and human capital management in coordinated support of optimal mission capability. This report considers the opportunities and challenges associated with related interests and needs across the USAF HCM system as a whole, and makes recommendations to inform improvements to USAF personnel selection and classification and other critical system components across career trajectories. Strengthening US Air Force Human Capital Management offers the Air Force a strategic approach, across a connected HCM system, to develop 21st century human capital capabilities essential for the success of 21st century Airmen.
Author: Kirsten M. Keller Publisher: ISBN: 9780833098788 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
"Women are underrepresented among the Air Force's senior leadership compared with their representation among the lower ranks. One factor contributing to this underrepresentation is that women tend to leave the active duty Air Force at higher rates than men. This report documents the results of a qualitative study designed to better understand the factors that female Air Force officers consider when deciding whether to remain in or separate from the active duty Air Force. The study conducted a total of 54 focus groups with 295 female Air Force officers in the spring of 2016 from across 12 different Air Force installations. The report describes the key retention factors identified through these focus groups and provides recommendations for improving Air Force policies and programs to help address potential barriers and improve female officer retention."--Publisher's description.
Author: Scott E. Payne Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This thesis analyzes retention and attrition behavior of Air Force captains with four to 11 years of service, extracted from 1985 DoD Survey of Officer and Enlisted Personnel. All occupations were examined except medical, dental, nursing, chaplain, and legal professions. Logistic regression models were estimated for all officers. These models included demographic, attitudinal, and economic data. The results showed that as Air Force captains with four to eleven years of military service gained more experience, they were more likely to leave the military. Total family income was found to have a negative effect on retention. Separate models estimated retention behavior by marital status and gender. Gender and total family debt were significant for married officers. The models contrasting men and women indicated that advanced degree attainment had a negative impact on female retention. The predictive capabilities of the models were evaluated. Recommendations for follow-on studies also discuss limitations of this analysis which may be addressed in future DoD surveys. (kr).
Author: Michael G. Mattock
Author: Michael G. Mattock
Author: Glenn A. Gotz
Author: 
Author: Glenn A. Gotz
Author: United States. Air Force
Author: Richard L. Fernandez
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Author: James M. Thomas
Author: Kirsten M. Keller
Author: Scott E. Payne