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Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455209414 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
We introduce non-tradable goods to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) model to study the distributive effects of terms of trade shocks. We show that the employment of resources in activities producing exclusively for the local market induces a crucial association between domestic spending and factor demand and prices, which is absent in the usual HOS framework. Specifically, in a two-sector economy (producing only exportable and non-tradable goods) there are no redistributive effects of external terms of trade shifts-i.e. no Stolper-Samuelson-type of effect. By extending the model to the domestic production of a third, importable good, we show that distributional tensions arise. Distributional conflicts occur within urban labor groups (skilled vs. unskilled) and not only between the "traditional" rural vs. urban factors. Finally, export taxes are imposed to re-distribute the effects of external shocks. We show that the ability of the government to cushion the impact of the terms of trade shift on the economy’s income distribution depends crucially on the use of the tax revenues.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455209414 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
We introduce non-tradable goods to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) model to study the distributive effects of terms of trade shocks. We show that the employment of resources in activities producing exclusively for the local market induces a crucial association between domestic spending and factor demand and prices, which is absent in the usual HOS framework. Specifically, in a two-sector economy (producing only exportable and non-tradable goods) there are no redistributive effects of external terms of trade shifts-i.e. no Stolper-Samuelson-type of effect. By extending the model to the domestic production of a third, importable good, we show that distributional tensions arise. Distributional conflicts occur within urban labor groups (skilled vs. unskilled) and not only between the "traditional" rural vs. urban factors. Finally, export taxes are imposed to re-distribute the effects of external shocks. We show that the ability of the government to cushion the impact of the terms of trade shift on the economy’s income distribution depends crucially on the use of the tax revenues.
Author: Bertrand Gruss Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484393856 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 38
Book Description
This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.
Author: Mr.Kangni R Kpodar Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498304907 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
This paper contributes to the literature by looking at the possible relevance of the structure of the financial system—whether financial intermediation is performed through banks or markets—for macroeconomic volatility, against the backdrop of increased policy attention on strengthening growth resilience. With low-income countries (LICs) being the most vulnerable to large and frequent terms of trade shocks, the paper focuses on a sample of 38 LICs over the period 1978-2012 and finds that banking sector development acts as a shock-absorber in poor countries, dampening the transmission of terms of trade shocks to growth volatility. Expanding the sample to 121 developing countries confirms this result, although this role of shock-absorber fades away as economies grow richer. Stock market development, by contrast, appears neither to be a shock-absorber nor a shock-amplifier for most economies. These findings are consistent across a range of econometric estimators, including fixed effect, system GMM and local projection estimates.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451873522 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 36
Book Description
We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with its historical precedents.
Author: Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484326091 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 123
Book Description
Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.
Author: Mary E. Burfisher Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1107132207 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 443
Book Description
The book provides a hands-on introduction to computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, written at an accessible, undergraduate level.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455210862 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 29
Book Description
Using Chilean data, we document that for resource-rich small open economies the effects of terms of trade shocks on the wage gap (between skilled and unskilled workers) depend on factor intensities in the non-tradable sector, following the model in Galiani, Heymann, and Magud (2010). For a skilled-intensive non-tradable sector we show that improvements in the terms of trade benefit skilled workers. We also show that this relation holds at the industry level: the wage gap widens in skilled-intensive sectors while it shrinks in unskilled-intensive ones, the more so as terms of trade volatility decreases.
Author: European System of Central Banks. Monetary Policy Committee Publisher: ISBN: 9789289908214 Category : International economic relations Languages : en Pages : 143
Book Description
The distributive trades sector, which is primarily accounted for by wholesale and retail trade, is not only economically important in its own right, but also relevant to monetary policy. Ultimately, it is retailers who set the actual prices of most consumer goods. They are the main interface between producers of consumer goods and consumers, with around half of private consumption accounted for by retail trade. The "value added" of this intermediation service can be substantial, as this accounts for, on average, about 25% of consumer prices. The purpose of this report is to analyse the structural features of the distributive trades sector and the developments within it, as well as how these may infl uence prices and price dynamics. Several aspects are relevant.^From a monetary policy point of view, increasing the degree of competition in the distributive trades sector may have effects not only on price levels, but also on price dynamics, via a reduction in mark-ups, an increase in price fl exibility and a greater and more rapid pass-through of changes in costs to prices. Structural developments, such as the increasing market penetration of hard discounters, online trade and private label brands, the role of buying groups and the relative bargaining power between producers and retailers are of great importance to consumers and price determination. In addition, these may have implications for the measurement of consumer prices and inflation.^More generally, the distributive trades sector plays an important role in determining cross-country differentials in productivity growth, both within and outside Europe: the sector has accounted for over one-third of the widening gap in aggregate productivity between the euro area and the United States since the mid-1990s. A specifi c contribution of this report is the use of a wide range of data sources, including a unique dataset on the location of over 100,000 individual grocery stores across most of the euro area, to investigate how to better measure the degree of competition and concentration in this sector, and to compare sector developments from a national, regional and local perspective.
Author: William R. Cline Publisher: Peterson Institute ISBN: 9780881322163 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 330
Book Description
"Cline also finds that trade liberalization has tended to raise skilled wages rather than reduce unskilled wages. Moreover, its impact has probably been no larger than falling transport and communication costs. Most importantly for policy, model simulations for the future show more limited trade impact than in the past and little unequalizing impact of further trade liberalization. Book jacket."--Jacket.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Bertrand Gruss
Author: Mr.Kangni R Kpodar
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
Author: Mary E. Burfisher
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: European System of Central Banks. Monetary Policy Committee
Author: William R. Cline
Author: Carl Davidson