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Cyclical Behavior of Inventories and Growth Projections Recent Evidence From Europe and the United States

Cyclical Behavior of Inventories and Growth Projections Recent Evidence From Europe and the United States PDF Author: Mr.Jens R. Clausen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455205435
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40

Book Description
In the United States and a few European countries, inventory behavior is mainly the outcome of demand shocks: a standard buffer-stock model best characterizes these economies. But most European countries are described by a modified buffer-stock model where supply shocks dominate. In contrast to the United States, inventories boost growth with a one-year lag in Europe. Moreover, inventories provide limited information to improve growth forecasts particularly when a modified buffer-stock model characterizes inventory behavior.

Inventories and the Business Cycle

Inventories and the Business Cycle PDF Author: Clarence L. Barber
Publisher: University of Toronto Press
ISBN: 1442633263
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 264

Book Description
This study falls into two parts. Part I contains a theoretical analysis of the relation of inventories and inventory fluctuations to the business cycle. It begins with a brief survey of the treatment of inventories in the literature of business cycles. Then a theoretical model of the economic system is developed as a basis for judging the nature and importance of inventory fluctuations in the economy. Part II is a study of inventory fluctuations in Canada over the period from 1918 to 1950 and provides some inductive verification of the preceding theoretical argument. The behaviour of inventories in ten important manufacturing industries is analysed in detail. This part also contains analysis of the movement of total inventories and of the behaviour of inventories in the main industrial subdivisions of the economy. Finally a brief chapter relates these findings to the theoretical analysis of Part I. Canadian Studies in Economics, No. 10.

Inventories in National Economies

Inventories in National Economies PDF Author: Attila Chikán
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1447173716
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 325

Book Description
This book introduces a new approach in the field of macroeconomic inventory studies: the use of multivariate statistics to evaluate long-term characteristics of inventory investments in developed countries. By analyzing a 44-year period series of annual inventory change in percentage of GDP in a set of OECD countries, disclosing their relationship to growth, industry structure and alternative uses of GDP (fixed capital investments, foreign trade and consumption), it fills a gap in the economic literature. It is generally accepted that inventories play an important role in all levels of the economy. However, while there is extensive literature on micro- (and even item-) level inventory problems, macroeconomic inventory studies are scarce. Both the long-term processes of inventory formation and their correlation with other macroeconomic factors provide interesting conclusions about economic changes and policies in our immediate past, and present important insights for the future.

Inventories and Business Cycles

Inventories and Business Cycles PDF Author: Moses Abramovitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages :

Book Description


The Global Trade Slowdown

The Global Trade Slowdown PDF Author: Cristina Constantinescu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498399134
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44

Book Description
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

The Unity of the Capitalist Economy and State

The Unity of the Capitalist Economy and State PDF Author: Geert Reuten
Publisher: Historical Materialism
ISBN: 9781642593730
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 727

Book Description
Geert Reuten offers a systematic exposition of the capitalist system, showing that the capitalist economy and the capitalist state constitute a unity.

The American Business Cycle

The American Business Cycle PDF Author: Robert J. Gordon
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226304590
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 882

Book Description
In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.

The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics

The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics PDF Author:
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349588024
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 7493

Book Description
The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.

What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?

What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts? PDF Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451871325
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 77

Book Description
We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42

Inventories in the Textile Cycle

Inventories in the Textile Cycle PDF Author: Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.). Bureau of Business and Economic Research
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inventories
Languages : en
Pages : 80

Book Description


The Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Costs

The Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Costs PDF Author: Julio Rotemberg
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 128

Book Description
Because inputs are scarce, marginal cost should be an increasing function of output. Without changes in this real marginal cost schedule, aggregate output can vary if and only if the markup of price over marginal cost varies. In this review, we discuss the extent to which observed fluctuations in aggregate economic activity depend upon such variations in average markups. We first study whether, empirically, real marginal cost rises in cyclical expansions. Average real labor cost is not very procyclical, but, for reasons such as overhead labor and adjustment costs, marginal labor cost should be more procyclical. Measures of marginal cost based on materials costs and inventories also appear procyclical. We next show that countercyclical markup variation may, depending upon how costs are modeled, account for a substantial fraction of cyclical output movements. We also show that the observed procyclical variations in productivity and profits are consistent with the hypothesis that cyclical variations in output are primarily due to markup variations than to shifts in the real marginal cost schedule. Finally, we survey theories of endogenous markup variation. These include both models of sticky and models in which firms' desired markup varies over time.