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Author: Christopher J. Nekarda Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
A countercyclical markup of price over marginal cost is the key transmission mechanism for demand shocks in textbook New Keynesian (NK) models. This paper re-examines the foundation of those models. We study the cyclicality of markups in the private economy as well as in detailed manufacturing industries. First, we show that frameworks for measuring markups that have produced the strongest evidence for countercyclicality produce the opposite result when we substitute new methods and data. Second, because the NK model's predictions differ by the nature of the shock, we present evidence on the cyclicality of the markup conditional on various types of shocks. Consistent with the NK model, we find that markups are procyclical conditional on a technology shock. However, we find that they are either procyclical or acyclical conditional on demand shocks. Thus, the textbook NK explanation for the effects of government spending or monetary policy is not supported by the behavior of the markup.
Author: Christopher J. Nekarda Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
A countercyclical markup of price over marginal cost is the key transmission mechanism for demand shocks in textbook New Keynesian (NK) models. This paper re-examines the foundation of those models. We study the cyclicality of markups in the private economy as well as in detailed manufacturing industries. First, we show that frameworks for measuring markups that have produced the strongest evidence for countercyclicality produce the opposite result when we substitute new methods and data. Second, because the NK model's predictions differ by the nature of the shock, we present evidence on the cyclicality of the markup conditional on various types of shocks. Consistent with the NK model, we find that markups are procyclical conditional on a technology shock. However, we find that they are either procyclical or acyclical conditional on demand shocks. Thus, the textbook NK explanation for the effects of government spending or monetary policy is not supported by the behavior of the markup.
Author: Julio Rotemberg Publisher: ISBN: Category : Business cycles Languages : en Pages : 128
Book Description
Because inputs are scarce, marginal cost should be an increasing function of output. Without changes in this real marginal cost schedule, aggregate output can vary if and only if the markup of price over marginal cost varies. In this review, we discuss the extent to which observed fluctuations in aggregate economic activity depend upon such variations in average markups. We first study whether, empirically, real marginal cost rises in cyclical expansions. Average real labor cost is not very procyclical, but, for reasons such as overhead labor and adjustment costs, marginal labor cost should be more procyclical. Measures of marginal cost based on materials costs and inventories also appear procyclical. We next show that countercyclical markup variation may, depending upon how costs are modeled, account for a substantial fraction of cyclical output movements. We also show that the observed procyclical variations in productivity and profits are consistent with the hypothesis that cyclical variations in output are primarily due to markup variations than to shifts in the real marginal cost schedule. Finally, we survey theories of endogenous markup variation. These include both models of sticky and models in which firms' desired markup varies over time.
Author: Julio Rotemberg Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 107
Book Description
Because inputs are scarce, marginal cost is an increasing function of output. Diminishing returns, costs of increasing employment as well as the increasing marginal disutility of working when hours worked and effort rise all contribute to make this function steep. Without changes in this function relating marginal cost to output, aggregate output can vary if and only if the markup of price to marginal cost (the inverse of real marginal cost for typical firms) varies. We first study whether, empirically, real marginal cost does rise in cyclical expansions. Average real labor cost is not very pro-cyclical but, for several reasons, marginal labor cost is more procyclical than average labor cost. These include the presence of overhead labor and adjustment costs as well as differences between the marginal and average wage. These corrections results in procyclical measures of real marginal cost. Measures of marginal costs based on materials costs and inventories also appear procyclical. We show that these procyclical movements in marginal cost may, depending on how costs are modeled, account for a substantial fraction of cyclical output movements. Finally, we survey models of variable markups. These include both models of sticky prices (in which markups vary because firms cannot all costlessly charge the markup they desire) and models in which firms' desired markup varies over time. This set of models allows a rich set of variables to affect output even if these variables do not shift the marginal cost schedule.
Author: Mark Bils Publisher: ISBN: Category : Business cycles Languages : en Pages : 76
Book Description
I examine price markups in monopolisticly-competitive markets that experience fluctuations in demand because the economy experiences cyclical fluctuations in productivity. Markups depend positively on the average income of purchasers in the market. For a nondurable good average income of purchasers is procyclical; so the markup is procyclical. For a durable good. however. the average income of purchasers is likely to decrease in booms because low income consumers of the good concentrate their purchases in boom periods; so the markup is likely countercyclical. This is particularly true for growing markets. I find markups make the aggregate economy fluctuate more in response to productivity if goods are sufficiently durable.
Author: Nir Klein Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1463902158 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
The study looks at the cyclical behavior of the markups and assesses its impact on inflation dynamics. The analysis finds that the aggregate level of the private sector's markup is relatively high, thus pointing to the lack of strong competition in South Africa's product markets. Additionally, the results suggest that the markups tend to move in a countercyclical manner, with a short-term positive impact on inflation. This implies that the countercyclical pattern of the markups is one factor among others that contribute to the relatively weak output gap-inflation co-movement. In the context of South Africa's inflation targeting framework, the counter-cyclical markups may also generate an asymmetric response of monetary policy to the fluctuations in economic activity.
Author: Paul Beaudry Publisher: ISBN: Category : Business cycles Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
We document the cyclical behavior of several measures of the relative price of investment goods for the U.S. economy over the last fifty years. Our main result is that there is no robust evidence that this relative price is countercyclical in the data. Furthermore, for the recent (post-Volcker) period, the relative price of investment appears predominantly procyclical. When looking at more disaggregated series, most measures are procyclical, a few acyclical, and only the price of equipment is countercyclical for some periods and measures. The procyclical behavior of the relative price of aggregate investment is also found for the six other countries of the G7.
Author: Charles R. Hulten Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226360644 Category : Medical Languages : en Pages : 648
Book Description
The productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1980s and the resumption of productivity growth in the 1990s have provoked controversy among policymakers and researchers. Economists have been forced to reexamine fundamental questions of measurement technique. Some researchers argue that econometric approaches to productivity measurement usefully address shortcomings of the dominant index number techniques while others maintain that current productivity statistics underreport damage to the environment. In this book, the contributors propose innovative approaches to these issues. The result is a state-of-the-art exposition of contemporary productivity analysis. Charles R. Hulten is professor of economics at the University of Maryland. He has been a senior research associate at the Urban Institute and is chair of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Michael Harper is chief of the Division of Productivity Research at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Edwin R. Dean, formerly associate commissioner for Productivity and Technology at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is adjunct professor of economics at The George Washington University.
Author: Christopher J. Nekarda
Author: Christopher J. Nekarda
Author: Julio Rotemberg
Author: Julio Rotemberg
Author: Mark Bils
Author: Mark Joseph Bils
Author: Geoffrey Hoyt Moore
Author: Nir Klein
Author: John P. Judd
Author: Paul Beaudry
Author: Charles R. Hulten