The Cyclical Behavior of Prices PDF Download

Author: Geoffrey Hoyt Moore
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Price indexes
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Author: Walter C. Labys
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351917080
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 247

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Book Description
Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Author: Craig Pirrong
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139501976
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 239

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Book Description
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Author: Peter V. Schaeffer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 047031723X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 345

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Book Description
Commodity Modeling and Pricing provides extensions and applications of state-of-the-art methods for analyzing resource commodity behavior. Drawing from the seminal work of Professor Walter Labys on the development of econometric methods for forecasting commodity prices, this collection of essays features expert contributors ranging from practitioners in private industry, public sector, and nongovernmental organizations to scholars in higher education–all of whom were Labys's former students or collaborators. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Commodity Modeling and Pricing contains the information you need to excel in this demanding environment.

Author: Wesley Clair Mitchell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 434

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Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451953089
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46

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Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in consumer prices, and that the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the fit of regressions of a multi-country consumer price index. However, there does not appear to be a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices.

Author: Frederick Cecil Mills
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 608

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Author: National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 608

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Author: Cristina Constantinescu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498399134
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

Author: Eduardo Borensztein
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Modelos econometricos
Languages : en
Pages : 31

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