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Author: Stuart A. Klugman Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9401708452 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 242
Book Description
The debate between the proponents of "classical" and "Bayesian" statistica} methods continues unabated. It is not the purpose of the text to resolve those issues but rather to demonstrate that within the realm of actuarial science there are a number of problems that are particularly suited for Bayesian analysis. This has been apparent to actuaries for a long time, but the lack of adequate computing power and appropriate algorithms had led to the use of various approximations. The two greatest advantages to the actuary of the Bayesian approach are that the method is independent of the model and that interval estimates are as easy to obtain as point estimates. The former attribute means that once one learns how to analyze one problem, the solution to similar, but more complex, problems will be no more difficult. The second one takes on added significance as the actuary of today is expected to provide evidence concerning the quality of any estimates. While the examples are all actuarial in nature, the methods discussed are applicable to any structured estimation problem. In particular, statisticians will recognize that the basic credibility problem has the same setting as the random effects model from analysis of variance.
Author: Daryl G. Press Publisher: Cornell University Press ISBN: 9780801474156 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 244
Book Description
"Daryl G. Press uses historical evidence to answer two crucial questions: When a country backs down in a crisis, does its credibility suffer? How do leaders assess their adversaries' credibility? Press illuminates the decision-making processes behind events such as the crises in Europe that preceded World War II, the superpower showdowns over Berlin in the 1950s and 60s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis."--Page 4 of cover.
Author: Matthias Rau-Göhring Publisher: diplom.de ISBN: 3832467351 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 68
Book Description
Inhaltsangabe:Zusammenfassung: Währungskrisen, wie die des Europäischen Währungssystems (EWS) 1992, können noch immer nur unzureichend vorausgesagt werden. Es wird jedoch anerkannt, dass die Glaubwürdigkeit eines jeden Währungssystems ausschließlich endogen bestimmt wird, d.h. durch Interaktion der einzelnen Akteure an den Wechselkursmärkten. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, ob ein bestimmtes Glaubwürdigkeitsmaß, eingeführt von Avesani, Gallo und Salmon (1995), geeignet ist, die große EWS Krise 1992 vorauszusagen. Dabei handelt es sich um ein dynamisches Spiel, in dem die beiden Akteure (Zentralbank und Finanzmarkt) miteinander interagieren und damit die Glaubwürdigkeit des Systems aushandeln . Es wird gezeigt, dass o.g. Glaubwürdigkeitsmaß ein geeigneter Indikator für Währungskrisen darstellt, was empirisch anhand des französischen Francs, der italienischen Lira und des niederländischen Guldens nachgewiesen wird. Introduction: The objective of the present study is to present the literature of exchange rate target zones and to explore empirically the Avesani-Gallo-Salmon credibility measure for selected currencies belonging to the Exchange-Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). In the past decade the empirical literature on real world target zones mushroomed considerably, but still, its overall significance in explaining strains in the relevant foreign exchange markets remains relatively low. In this context, I will explore whether the Avesani-Gallo-Salmon (1995) credibility measure demonstrates more power than earlier studies in the analysis of the 1992/3 EMS crisis. It is not my intention to pursue a normative analysis whether flexible or fixed exchange rates or intermediate regimes are superior to one another in terms of their economic implications. This question is beyond the scope of my analysis.1 Given that target zones are applied frequently in the real world, I purely want to figure out, whether their application is sensible on grounds of a firm commitment of the policy-makers. Exchange rate bands have been discussed widely after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System in 1973. Although experiences with the fixed exchange rate regime were disappointing in the 1960s, increased volatility and/or overshooting of the exchange rates in the 1970s let economists doubt the famous argument by Friedman (1953) that speculation would stabilize exchange rate movements in the floating system. McKinnon (1976) reckoned that [...]
Author: Miriam J. Metzger Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262562324 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 212
Book Description
The difficulties in determining the quality of information on the Internet--in particular, the implications of wide access and questionable credibility for youth and learning. Today we have access to an almost inconceivably vast amount of information, from sources that are increasingly portable, accessible, and interactive. The Internet and the explosion of digital media content have made more information available from more sources to more people than at any other time in human history. This brings an infinite number of opportunities for learning, social connection, and entertainment. But at the same time, the origin of information, its quality, and its veracity are often difficult to assess. This volume addresses the issue of credibility--the objective and subjective components that make information believable--in the contemporary media environment. The contributors look particularly at youth audiences and experiences, considering the implications of wide access and the questionable credibility of information for youth and learning. They discuss such topics as the credibility of health information online, how to teach credibility assessment, and public policy solutions. Much research has been done on credibility and new media, but little of it focuses on users younger than college students. Digital Media, Youth, and Credibility fills this gap in the literature. Contributors Matthew S. Eastin, Gunther Eysenbach, Brian Hilligoss, Frances Jacobson Harris, R. David Lankes, Soo Young Rieh, S. Shyam Sundar, Fred W. Weingarten
Author: Taradas Bandyopadhyay Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield ISBN: 9780389209119 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 356
Book Description
This book brings together leading academics and researchers to make a timely contribution to our understanding of the key issues in the fast-developing field of monetary economics. It offers a thoroughly comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of major areas such as money supply and demand, interest rate determination, international transmission of inflation, public debt, stabilization of the economy, the rational expectations hypothesis and the relationship between money and economic development. The book will be essential reading for all undergraduate and graduate students of monetary economics and macroeconomic theory. Contents: Preface; Contributors; Introduction: Taradas Bandyopadhyay and Subrata Ghatak; Money demand and supply, M.J. Artis and M.K. Lewis; Money market operations of the Bank of England and the determination of interest rates, David T. Llewellyn; Real interest rates and the role of expectations, Kajal Lahiri and Mark Zaporowski; Public sector deficits and the money supply, P.M. Jackson; The international transmission of inflation, George Zis; A critique of monetary theories of the balance of payments; nihil ex nihilo, M.H.L. Burstein; A framework for the analysis of two-tier exchange markets with incomplete segmentation, Jagdeep S. Bhandari and Bernard Decaluwe; Rational expectations and monetary policy, Patrick Minford; Monetary policy and credibility, Paul Levine; Disinflation and wage-price controls, David A. Wilton; Monetary growth models: The role of money demand functions, Taradas Bandyopadhyay and Subrata Ghatak; Index.
Author: James M. Kouzes Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118017013 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 203
Book Description
From the authors of "The Leadership Challenge" comes a workbook to strengthen every leader's capacity for developing and sustaining credibility. Through practical individual activities, the reader will assemble a blueprint for implementing the principles of credibility in their everyday practice of leadership.
Author: Jonathan Rauch Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 022613055X Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 215
Book Description
The classic “compelling defense of free speech against its new enemies” now in an expanded edition with a foreword by George F. Will (Kirkus Reviews). “A liberal society stands on the proposition that we should all take seriously the idea that we might be wrong. This means we must place no one, including ourselves, beyond the reach of criticism; it means that we must allow people to err, even where the error offends and upsets, as it often will.” So writes Jonathan Rauch in Kindly Inquisitors, which has challenged readers for decades with its provocative analysis of attempts to limit free speech. In it, Rauch makes a persuasive argument for the value of “liberal science” and the idea that conflicting views produce knowledge within society. In this expanded edition of Kindly Inquisitors, a new foreword by George F. Will explores the book’s continued relevance, while a substantial new afterword by Rauch elaborates upon his original argument and brings it fully up to date. Two decades after the book’s initial publication, the regulation of hate speech has grown both domestically and internationally. But the answer to prejudice, Rauch argues, is pluralism—not purism. Rather than attempting to legislate bias and prejudice out of existence, we must pit them against one another to foster a more vigorous and fruitful discussion. It is this process, Rauch argues, that will enable our society to replace hate with knowledge, both ethical and empirical.
Author: Elli Lieberman Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 0415682134 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 330
Book Description
This book offers a reconceptualisation of conventional deterrence theory, and applies it to enduring rivalries in the Middle East. The work argues that many of the problems encountered in the development of deterrence theory lay in the fact that it was developed during the Cold War, when the immediate problem it had to address was how to prevent catastrophic nuclear wars. The logic of nuclear deterrence compelled a preoccupation with the problem of stability over credibility; however, because the logic of conventional deterrence is different, the solution of the tension between credibility and stability is achieved by deference to credibility, due to the requirements of reputation and costly signaling. This book aims to narrow the gap between theory and evidence. It explores how a reconceptualization of the theory as a process that culminates in the internalization of deterrence within enduring rivalries is better suited to account for its final success: a finding that has eluded deterrence theorists for long. This interdisciplinary book will be of much interest to students of deterrence theory, strategic studies, international security, Middle Eastern studies and IR in general.
Author: Stuart A. Klugman
Author: Daryl G. Press
Author: Matthias Rau-Göhring
Author: Miriam J. Metzger
Author: Taradas Bandyopadhyay
Author: James M. Kouzes
Author: Jonathan Rauch
Author: Steven Drozdeck
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services
Author: Elli Lieberman