The Contribution of Domestic, Regional and International Factors to Latin America's Business Cycle PDF Download

Author: Melisso Boschi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 31

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Book Description
This paper quantifies the relative contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to the fluctuation of domestic output in six key Latin American (LA) countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Using quarterly data over the period 1980:1-2003:4, a multi-variate, multicountry time series model was estimated to study the economic interdependence among LA countries and, in addition, between each of them and the three world largest industrial economies: the US, the Euro Area and Japan. Falsifying a common suspicion, it is shown that the proportion of LA countries' domestic output variability explained by industrial countries' factors is modest. By contrast, domestic and regional factors account for the main share of output variability at all simulation horizons. The implications for the choice of the exchange rate regime are also discussed.

Author: Carlos A. Vegh
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464814139
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 70

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Book Description
After mediocre growth in 2018 of 0.7 percent. LAC is expected to perform only marginally better in 2019 (growth of 0.9 percent) followed by a much more solid growth of 2.1 percent in 2020. LAC will face both internal and external challenges during 2019. On the domestic front. the recession in Argentina; a slower than expected recovery in Brazil from the 2014-2015 recession, anemic growth in Mexico. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. present the biggest challenges. On the external front. the sharp drop in net capital inflows to the region since early 2018 and the monetary policy normalization in the United States stand among the greatest perils. Furthermore, the recent increase in poverty in Brazil because of the recession points to the large effects that the business cycle may have on poverty. The core of this report argues that social indicators that are very sensitive to the business cycle may yield a highly misleading picture of permanent social gains in the region.

Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451870019
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51

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Book Description
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Author: William Newburry
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319983407
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 250

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Book Description
Drawing on the best contributions from the 2015 and 2016 Academy of International Business Latin America Chapter (AIB-LAT) conferences, this collection provides analysis and research into the intertwined managerial environments from this vast and complex region. By systematically highlighting environmental, firm and individual-level influences on international business activities, the authors aim to divide the complex nature of this phenomenon into manageable pieces while simultaneously providing an understandable overview of important international business factors in the region. The book invites readers to think critically about how factors at any particular level can only provide one piece of the overall internationalization puzzle in the region.

Author: Steven E. Sanderson
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 0804720215
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 310

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Book Description
In this innovative synthesis and reconstruction of the role of trade in Latin American development, the author asks what have been the political terms of trade in Latin America, and why have they differed so much from the multilateral and national trade politics of the advanced capitalist countries, especially the United States? He shows, in great detail, how a new conceptual approach to this question can help us to understand why, and with what limits, Latin America now seems ready to accept the mantle of free trade. This book is a unique attempt to link some of the most provocative hypotheses from the literatures of international trade, development, regional economic history, and resource management to national politics in Latin America. It takes a fresh look at old academic questions, critiques the received knowledge on trade, and offers some new data, documents, and indexes. To the standard literature on Latin American trade, the author adds insights and information from other literatures - resource conservation, poverty alleviation, and national development strategies, to name a few. The current trend toward looking at constraints and possibilities in the trade system is reshaped to ask familiar questions in a concrete, empirical way. What changes in development design come from external shock, and under what conditions? Does the pressure of the international system actually force Latin American countries to alter their rates and kinds of natural resource exploitation? Can a political course of export promotion address the debt crisis effectively? Are the multilateral trade negotiations a useful format for Latin American trade and development problems? And, finally, can we sayanything with authority about Latin America as a region?

Author: John E. Spillan
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136195742
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 313

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Book Description
Success in today's globalized business environment requires deep knowledge of varied areas, and the willingness to engage in commerce not just across geographic areas, but cross-culturally and environmentally as well. Doing Business in Latin America offers an in-depth look at a complex region, integrating practitioners’ and scholars’ ideas to examine business conducted in Latin America through the lens of international business and globalization. The book introduces, discusses, and explains in detail the historical, economic, cultural, political, and technological impacts of globalization and business conduct in Latin American countries. It also considers the contemporary business environment of the area, looking at how current country and regional factors have affected the process of starting and operating businesses. Finally, it looks forward to the emerging trends that portend the future of business in these countries. With its combination of contemporary analysis and historical discussion, this book is a vital tool to all scholars and practitioners with an interest in the opportunities offered by the current Latin American business environment.

Author: Marco Aiolfi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 23

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Author: United Nations. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
Publisher: Stanford Social Science
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236

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Book Description
The international response to opportunities and risks arising from globalization has been incomplete and uneven. But a proactive approach by a network of institutions could correct existing asymmetries and build a rights-based international social agenda. Globalization and Development provides a historical overview of economic development in the Latin America and Caribbean region - and proposes an economic and noneconomic agenda that addresses disparity, respects diversity, and fosters complementarity among regional, national, and international institutions. "This book provides a profound analysis of key problems facing the global economic order. Equally important, the agenda put forward provides perceptive food for thought for all who are committed to overcoming the fundamental asymmetries that pervade the world economy today. It recognizes that success in creating a better global order must go beyond the topics that have been at the center of discussion in the past: There must be an adequate supply of global public goods, and we need to incorporate at the global level values that we often take for granted at the national level--a commitment to global democracy, global citizenship, and global social justice."

Author: Beatriz Armendariz
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262337878
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 461

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Book Description
Analysis of Latin America's economy focusing on development, covering the colonial roots of inequality, boom and bust cycles, labor markets, and fiscal and monetary policy. Latin America is richly endowed with natural resources, fertile land, and vibrant cultures. Yet the region remains much poorer than its neighbors to the north. Most Latin American countries have not achieved standards of living and stable institutions comparable to those found in developed countries, have experienced repeated boom-bust cycles, and remain heavily reliant on primary commodities. This book studies the historical roots of Latin America's contemporary economic and social development, focusing on poverty and income inequality dating back to colonial times. It addresses today's legacies of the market-friendly reforms that took hold in the 1980s and 1990s by examining successful stabilizations and homemade monetary and fiscal institutional reforms. It offers a detailed analysis of trade and financial liberalization, twenty–first century-growth, and the decline in poverty and income inequality. Finally, the book offers an overall analysis of inclusive growth policies for development—including gender issues and the informal sector—and the challenges that lie ahead for the region, with special attention to pressing demands by the vibrant and vocal middle class, youth unemployment, and indigenous populations.

Author: Patricio Aroca
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783319988658
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
This book analyzes regional business cycles in Latin America. The authors explain the nature of regional business cycles and discuss different sources of regional economic fluctuations such as technology changes, natural disasters, or supply and demand shocks. Presenting case studies on Brazil, Chile and Mexico, the authors examine the co-movement of regional business cycles as well as the differing responses of regional economies to external shocks due to regional characteristics such as availability of natural resources, and the degree of integration into national and global markets. This short book appealto students and scholars as well as policy makers interested in regional growth processes in developing countries.