The Book of European Forecasts PDF Download

Author:
Publisher: Euromonitor Publications
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336

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Author: Jakub Bijak
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9048188970
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 318

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Book Description
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Author: Anne L. Foster
Publisher: Duke University Press
ISBN: 0822393123
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 256

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Book Description
Throughout its history, the United States has been both imperialistic and anticolonial: imperialistic in its expansion across the continent and across oceans to colonies such as the Philippines, and anticolonial in its rhetoric and ideology. How did this contradiction shape its interactions with European colonists and Southeast Asians after the United States joined the ranks of colonial powers in 1898? Anne L. Foster argues that the actions of the United States functioned primarily to uphold, and even strengthen, the colonial order in Southeast Asia. The United States participated in international agreements to track and suppress the region’s communists and radical nationalists, and in economic agreements benefiting the colonial powers. Yet the American presence did not always serve colonial ends; American cultural products (including movies and consumer goods) and its economic practices (such as encouraging indigenous entrepreneurship) were appropriated by Southeast Asians for their own purposes. Scholars have rarely explored the interactions among the European colonies of Southeast Asia in the early twentieth century. Foster is the first to incorporate the United States into such an analysis. As she demonstrates, the presence of the United States as a colonial power in Southeast Asia after the First World War helps to explain the resiliency of colonialism in the region. It also highlights the inexorable and appealing changes that Southeast Asians perceived as possibilities for the region’s future.

Author: matteo villa
Publisher: Ledizioni
ISBN: 8855262025
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 112

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Book Description
Even as the 2013-2017 "migration crisis" is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror. This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?

Author: Joseph Ratzinger
Publisher: Ignatius Press
ISBN: 1681490285
Category : Religion
Languages : en
Pages : 197

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Book Description
Foreword by James Schall, S.J. Cardinal Ratzinger addresses the challenges and responsibilities that both the Church and society in Europe face after the collapse of Marxism. Both liberalism and Marxism have denied religion the right to have any influence on public affairs and the common future of humanity. Since there is also a great spiritual emptiness growing in the West with the increased secularization, consumerism and hedonism, Ratzingerಙs comments apply as much, if not more, to the United States as well. With the downfall of Marxism, religion has been discovered anew as an ineradicable force for both the individual and society. While there is renewed interest in religion, the dangers also exist to lay hold of religion as an instrument to serve various political ideas. Ratzinger, whose theological work has often dealt with the ಜreasons for our faith,ಝ reflects upon the various problems facing humanity at this turning point of our history and offers genuine hope based upon a deep Christian faith. He also addressed the critical role that the Church has in relationship to the world and the essential task of bringing Christ back into our culture. ಜIn the present situation it is an absolute obligation for the theologian and for the pastor of the Church to enter the disputation about the correct understanding of the present time, and to both clarify faithಙs own proper sphere and to do justice to the share of responsibility that lies on him at this hour.ಝ Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger

Author: Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030424723
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 261

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Book Description
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Author: Marina Astitha
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0128202432
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 359

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Book Description
Extreme Weather Forecasting reviews current knowledge about extreme weather events, including key elements and less well-known variables to accurately forecast them. The book covers multiple temporal scales as well as components of current weather forecasting systems. Sections cover case studies on successful forecasting as well as the impacts of extreme weather predictability, presenting a comprehensive and model agnostic review of best practices for atmospheric scientists and others who utilize extreme weather forecasts. - Reviews recent developments in numerical prediction for better forecasting of extreme weather events - Covers causes and mechanisms of high impact extreme events and how to account for these variables when forecasting - Includes numerous case studies on successful forecasting, outlining why they worked

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 311

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Author: Lewis F. Richardson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Numerical weather forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 258

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Book Description

Author: James Kirchick
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300227787
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 288

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Book Description
Once the world’s bastion of liberal, democratic values, Europe is now having to confront demons it thought it had laid to rest. The old pathologies of anti-Semitism, populist nationalism, and territorial aggression are threatening to tear the European postwar consensus apart. In riveting dispatches from this unfolding tragedy, James Kirchick shows us the shallow disingenuousness of the leaders who pushed for “Brexit;” examines how a vast migrant wave is exacerbating tensions between Europeans and their Muslim minorities; explores the rising anti-Semitism that causes Jewish schools and synagogues in France and Germany to resemble armed bunkers; and describes how Russian imperial ambitions are destabilizing nations from Estonia to Ukraine. With President Trump now threatening to abandon America's traditional role as upholder of the liberal world order and guarantor of the continent's security, Europe may be alone in dealing with these unprecedented challenges. Based on extensive firsthand reporting, this book is a provocative, disturbing look at a continent in unexpected crisis.