Assessment and Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions PDF Download

Author: Carl-Axel S. Staël von Holstein
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
Languages : en
Pages : 248

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Author: Allan Murphy
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000236323
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 560

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Book Description
Methodology drawn from the fields of probability. statistics and decision making plays an increasingly important role in the atmosphericsciences. both in basic and applied research and in experimental and operational studies. Applications of such methodology can be found in almost every facet of the discipline. from the most theoretical and global (e.g., atmospheric predictability. global climate modeling) to the most practical and local (e.g., crop-weather modeling forecast evaluation). Almost every issue of the multitude of journals published by the atmospheric sciences community now contain some or more papers involving applications of concepts and/or methodology from the fields of probability and statistics. Despite the increasingly pervasive nature of such applications. very few book length treatments of probabilistic and statistical topics of particular interest to atmospheric scientists have appeared (especially inEnglish) since the publication of the pioneering works of Brooks andCarruthers (Handbook of Statistical Methods in Meteorology) in 1953 and Panofsky and Brier-(some Applications of)statistics to Meteor) in 1958. As a result. many relatively recent developments in probability and statistics are not well known to atmospheric scientists and recent work in active areas of meteorological research involving significant applications of probabilistic and statistical methods are not familiar to the meteorological community as a whole.

Author: Andrew N O'Connor
Publisher: RIAC
ISBN: 1933904062
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 220

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Book Description
The book provides details on 22 probability distributions. Each distribution section provides a graphical visualization and formulas for distribution parameters, along with distribution formulas. Common statistics such as moments and percentile formulas are followed by likelihood functions and in many cases the derivation of maximum likelihood estimates. Bayesian non-informative and conjugate priors are provided followed by a discussion on the distribution characteristics and applications in reliability engineering.

Author: Derek H. Allen
Publisher: IChemE
ISBN: 9780852952665
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 210

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Book Description
With the help of this well-established book, the engineer can tackle cash flow, tax, depreciation, cost minimisation, uncertainty and risk. IChemE, the Institution of Chemical Engineers, is the center for chemical, biochemical and process engineering professionals worldwide. We are the heart of the process community, promoting competence and a commitment to sustainable development, advancing the discipline for the benefit of society and supporting the professional development of members. Some of the areas we publish in include: Safety in the process industries - the BP Process Safety series; Consultancy for chemical engineers; Project management in the process industries; Contract management in the process industries - International Forms Of Contract series; and Communication skills for engineers.

Author: Paul R. Garvey
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 148221976X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 526

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Book Description
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to

Author: Jim Albert
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351030132
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 553

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Book Description
Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.

Author: Reinout Heijungs
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031493176
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 1159

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 668

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Author: Roger B. Myerson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262043122
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 569

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Book Description
An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

Author: I. B. Ibrahim
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483163806
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 443

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Book Description
Readings in Managerial Economics is a five-part book that deals with the major subject areas of decision making; forecasting and demand analysis; production and cost; pricing and market structure; and capital budgeting and profit. This book combines a number of diverse articles, selected from recent issues of over fifty leading professional publication. Some of the articles deal principally with theory, some with applications, and some with both. This book will be useful for students and executives interested in this subject matter.