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Author: Timothy Masters Publisher: Apress ISBN: 1484241738 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 325
Book Description
Build, test, and tune financial, insurance or other market trading systems using C++ algorithms and statistics. You’ve had an idea and have done some preliminary experiments, and it looks promising. Where do you go from here? Well, this book discusses and dissects this case study approach. Seemingly good backtest performance isn't enough to justify trading real money. You need to perform rigorous statistical tests of the system's validity. Then, if basic tests confirm the quality of your idea, you need to tune your system, not just for best performance, but also for robust behavior in the face of inevitable market changes. Next, you need to quantify its expected future behavior, assessing how bad its real-life performance might actually be, and whether you can live with that. Finally, you need to find its theoretical performance limits so you know if its actual trades conform to this theoretical expectation, enabling you to dump the system if it does not live up to expectations. This book does not contain any sure-fire, guaranteed-riches trading systems. Those are a dime a dozen... But if you have a trading system, this book will provide you with a set of tools that will help you evaluate the potential value of your system, tweak it to improve its profitability, and monitor its on-going performance to detect deterioration before it fails catastrophically. Any serious market trader would do well to employ the methods described in this book. What You Will Learn See how the 'spaghetti-on-the-wall' approach to trading system development can be done legitimatelyDetect overfitting early in developmentEstimate the probability that your system's backtest results could have been due to just good luckRegularize a predictive model so it automatically selects an optimal subset of indicator candidatesRapidly find the global optimum for any type of parameterized trading systemAssess the ruggedness of your trading system against market changesEnhance the stationarity and information content of your proprietary indicatorsNest one layer of walkforward analysis inside another layer to account for selection bias in complex trading systemsCompute a lower bound on your system's mean future performanceBound expected periodic returns to detect on-going system deterioration before it becomes severeEstimate the probability of catastrophic drawdown Who This Book Is For Experienced C++ programmers, developers, and software engineers. Prior experience with rigorous statistical procedures to evaluate and maximize the quality of systems is recommended as well.
Author: Timothy Masters Publisher: Apress ISBN: 1484241738 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 325
Book Description
Build, test, and tune financial, insurance or other market trading systems using C++ algorithms and statistics. You’ve had an idea and have done some preliminary experiments, and it looks promising. Where do you go from here? Well, this book discusses and dissects this case study approach. Seemingly good backtest performance isn't enough to justify trading real money. You need to perform rigorous statistical tests of the system's validity. Then, if basic tests confirm the quality of your idea, you need to tune your system, not just for best performance, but also for robust behavior in the face of inevitable market changes. Next, you need to quantify its expected future behavior, assessing how bad its real-life performance might actually be, and whether you can live with that. Finally, you need to find its theoretical performance limits so you know if its actual trades conform to this theoretical expectation, enabling you to dump the system if it does not live up to expectations. This book does not contain any sure-fire, guaranteed-riches trading systems. Those are a dime a dozen... But if you have a trading system, this book will provide you with a set of tools that will help you evaluate the potential value of your system, tweak it to improve its profitability, and monitor its on-going performance to detect deterioration before it fails catastrophically. Any serious market trader would do well to employ the methods described in this book. What You Will Learn See how the 'spaghetti-on-the-wall' approach to trading system development can be done legitimatelyDetect overfitting early in developmentEstimate the probability that your system's backtest results could have been due to just good luckRegularize a predictive model so it automatically selects an optimal subset of indicator candidatesRapidly find the global optimum for any type of parameterized trading systemAssess the ruggedness of your trading system against market changesEnhance the stationarity and information content of your proprietary indicatorsNest one layer of walkforward analysis inside another layer to account for selection bias in complex trading systemsCompute a lower bound on your system's mean future performanceBound expected periodic returns to detect on-going system deterioration before it becomes severeEstimate the probability of catastrophic drawdown Who This Book Is For Experienced C++ programmers, developers, and software engineers. Prior experience with rigorous statistical procedures to evaluate and maximize the quality of systems is recommended as well.
Author: Stefan Jansen Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd ISBN: 1839216786 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 822
Book Description
Leverage machine learning to design and back-test automated trading strategies for real-world markets using pandas, TA-Lib, scikit-learn, LightGBM, SpaCy, Gensim, TensorFlow 2, Zipline, backtrader, Alphalens, and pyfolio. Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free eBook in the PDF format. Key FeaturesDesign, train, and evaluate machine learning algorithms that underpin automated trading strategiesCreate a research and strategy development process to apply predictive modeling to trading decisionsLeverage NLP and deep learning to extract tradeable signals from market and alternative dataBook Description The explosive growth of digital data has boosted the demand for expertise in trading strategies that use machine learning (ML). This revised and expanded second edition enables you to build and evaluate sophisticated supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning models. This book introduces end-to-end machine learning for the trading workflow, from the idea and feature engineering to model optimization, strategy design, and backtesting. It illustrates this by using examples ranging from linear models and tree-based ensembles to deep-learning techniques from cutting edge research. This edition shows how to work with market, fundamental, and alternative data, such as tick data, minute and daily bars, SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, financial news, or satellite images to generate tradeable signals. It illustrates how to engineer financial features or alpha factors that enable an ML model to predict returns from price data for US and international stocks and ETFs. It also shows how to assess the signal content of new features using Alphalens and SHAP values and includes a new appendix with over one hundred alpha factor examples. By the end, you will be proficient in translating ML model predictions into a trading strategy that operates at daily or intraday horizons, and in evaluating its performance. What you will learnLeverage market, fundamental, and alternative text and image dataResearch and evaluate alpha factors using statistics, Alphalens, and SHAP valuesImplement machine learning techniques to solve investment and trading problemsBacktest and evaluate trading strategies based on machine learning using Zipline and BacktraderOptimize portfolio risk and performance analysis using pandas, NumPy, and pyfolioCreate a pairs trading strategy based on cointegration for US equities and ETFsTrain a gradient boosting model to predict intraday returns using AlgoSeek's high-quality trades and quotes dataWho this book is for If you are a data analyst, data scientist, Python developer, investment analyst, or portfolio manager interested in getting hands-on machine learning knowledge for trading, this book is for you. This book is for you if you want to learn how to extract value from a diverse set of data sources using machine learning to design your own systematic trading strategies. Some understanding of Python and machine learning techniques is required.
Author: Timothy Masters Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 173
Book Description
This book provides the trading system developer with a powerful set of statistical tools for measuring vital aspects of performance that are ignored by most developers. All algorithms include intuitive justification, basic theory, all relevant equations, and highly commented C++ code for complete programs that run in a Windows Command Console. Reprogramming them in other languages should be easy, given the detailed explanations of each algorithm. The following topics are covered: Testing for overfitting at the earliest possible stage Evaluating the luckiness-versus-skill of a fully developed system before deploying it Testing the effectiveness and reliability of a trading system factory Removing selection bias when screening a large number of indicators Probability bounds for future mean returns Bounding typical and catastrophic future drawdowns Is the best indicator or model in a competition truly the best, or just the luckiest? Which markets provide truly superior profits for your trading system? What holding time for your system provides the best risk/return performance?
Author: Anthony Trongone Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118239415 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 259
Book Description
Hands-on tools to identify and profit from the market's recent patterns Trading is all about managing probabilities. In Trading with the Odds, Anthony Trongone explains that the quest for developing a perfect system, which drives most traders, is fruitless. Instead, traders should focus on developing the analytic and trading skills necessary to stay in tune with the constant evolution of the financial markets. In this book, Trongone emphasizes the importance of testing and monitoring trading strategies and raw market data as a means of developing an edge over other traders who are unwilling to get their hands dirty and dig into the data on a continuing basis. Importantly, he shows that Excel, a program almost all traders are familiar with, can be utilized to measure virtually every important aspect of trading system performance and to search for tradable market patterns. In addition, the book includes several applications that will allow you to calculate current market conditions and market patterns based on time of day, intermarket relationships, and other factors. Advocates an analytical approach which evolves in concert with changing market conditions Explains why it's hard to make money from off-the-shelf systems and indicators Provides in-depth analysis of other major industries generating worthwhile IPOs Includes applications that allow users to calculate recent market patterns Underlying Trongone's approach is the conviction that traders must constantly innovate in response to the market, and those that rely on static analysis, will fail to achieve the results they expect.
Author: Bruce Vanstone Publisher: Harriman House Limited ISBN: 1906659583 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 181
Book Description
Most people know there is potential to make big money in the stock market, but they don't know how to get started. This work guides readers step by step through the authors' methods for building rule-based stock market trading systems.
Author: Richard L. Peterson Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119163757 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 368
Book Description
In his debut book on trading psychology, Inside the Investor’s Brain, Richard Peterson demonstrated how managing emotions helps top investors outperform. Now, in Trading on Sentiment, he takes you inside the science of crowd psychology and demonstrates that not only do price patterns exist, but the most predictable ones are rooted in our shared human nature. Peterson’s team developed text analysis engines to mine data - topics, beliefs, and emotions - from social media. Based on that data, they put together a market-neutral social media-based hedge fund that beat the S&P 500 by more than twenty-four percent—through the 2008 financial crisis. In this groundbreaking guide, he shows you how they did it and why it worked. Applying algorithms to social media data opened up an unprecedented world of insight into the elusive patterns of investor sentiment driving repeating market moves. Inside, you gain a privileged look at the media content that moves investors, along with time-tested techniques to make the smart moves—even when it doesn’t feel right. This book digs underneath technicals and fundamentals to explain the primary mover of market prices - the global information flow and how investors react to it. It provides the expert guidance you need to develop a competitive edge, manage risk, and overcome our sometimes-flawed human nature. Learn how traders are using sentiment analysis and statistical tools to extract value from media data in order to: Foresee important price moves using an understanding of how investors process news. Make more profitable investment decisions by identifying when prices are trending, when trends are turning, and when sharp market moves are likely to reverse. Use media sentiment to improve value and momentum investing returns. Avoid the pitfalls of unique price patterns found in commodities, currencies, and during speculative bubbles Trading on Sentiment deepens your understanding of markets and supplies you with the tools and techniques to beat global markets— whether they’re going up, down, or sideways.
Author: Sergey Izraylevich Publisher: FT Press ISBN: 0132478668 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 302
Book Description
The first and only book of its kind, Automated Options Trading describes a comprehensive, step-by-step process for creating automated options trading systems. Using the authors' techniques, sophisticated traders can create powerful frameworks for the consistent, disciplined realization of well-defined, formalized, and carefully-tested trading strategies based on their specific requirements. Unlike other books on automated trading, this book focuses specifically on the unique requirements of options, reflecting philosophy, logic, quantitative tools, and valuation procedures that are completely different from those used in conventional automated trading algorithms. Every facet of the authors' approach is optimized for options, including strategy development and optimization; capital allocation; risk management; performance measurement; back-testing and walk-forward analysis; and trade execution. The authors' system reflects a continuous process of valuation, structuring and long-term management of investment portfolios (not just individual instruments), introducing systematic approaches for handling portfolios containing option combinations related to different underlying assets. With these techniques, it is finally possible to effectively automate options trading at the portfolio level. This book will be an indispensable resource for serious options traders working individually, in hedge funds, or in other institutions.
Author: John F. Ehlers Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118045726 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 274
Book Description
Cutting-edge insight from the leader in trading technology In Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures, noted technical analyst John Ehlers continues to enlighten readers on the art of predicting the market based on tested systems. With application of his engineering expertise, Ehlers explains the latest, most advanced techniques that help traders predict stock and futures markets with surgical precision. Unique new indicators and automatic trading systems are described in text as well as Easy Language and EFS code. The approaches are universal and robust enough to be applied to a full range of market conditions. John F. Ehlers (Santa Barbara, CA) is President of MESA Software (www.mesasoftware.com) and has also written Rocket Science for Traders (0-471-40567-1) as well as numerous articles for Futures and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazines.
Author: Keith Fitschen Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118635612 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 243
Book Description
An award winning system developer explains how to create, test, and implement a profitable trading system Traders have long been drawn to the idea of translating their strategies and ideas into trading systems. While successful trading systems have been developed, in most cases, they work very well for a period of time in specific markets, but perform less well across all markets in all time frames. Nobody understands this better than author Keith Fitschen—a thought-leader in trading system development—and now, with Trading Strategy Generation + Website, he shares his extensive experience in this field with you. Trading Strategy Generation skillfully explains how to take market insights or trading ideas and develop them into a robust trading system. In it, Fitschen describes the critical steps a trader needs to follow, including: translating the market insight into a rules-based approach; determining entry and exit points; testing against historical data; and integrating money management and position sizing into the system. Written by an award winning system developer who has actively traded his systems for thirty years Introduces new ideas on money management and position sizing for different markets Details exactly what it takes to build, test, and implement a profitable technical trading system A companion Website contains supplementary material, including Excel spreadsheets designed to rate the strength of entry signals and provide money management guidance based on market volatility and portfolio correlations Written with the serious trader in mind, Trading Strategy Generation is an accessible guide to building a system that will generate realistic returns over time.
Author: Timothy Masters
Author: Timothy Masters
Author: Robert Pardo
Author: Stefan Jansen
Author: Timothy Masters
Author: Anthony Trongone
Author: Bruce Vanstone
Author: Richard L. Peterson
Author: Sergey Izraylevich
Author: John F. Ehlers
Author: Keith Fitschen