Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa Are They Short-Lived or Long-Lived? PDF Download

Author: Catherine A. Pattillo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52

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Book Description
This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the countries such shocks are long-lived. The countries experiencing long-lived terms of trade shocks are typically those that have large shares of petroleum imports in total imports, small shares of nonfuel commodity exports in total exports, and are highly concentrated in exportable commodities with long-lived price shocks.

Author: Christopher J. Kent
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451856369
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Book Description
Is the relationship between the current account balance and the terms of trade affected by the persistence of terms of trade shocks? In intertemporal models of the current account that incorporate a consumption-smoothing and an investment response to shocks, the effect of the terms of trade on external balances is predicted to be dependent on the duration of terms of trade shocks. Using a median-unbiased estimator, an unbiased model-selection rule, and terms of trade data for 128 countries over the period 1960-99 we identify two groups of countries-those that typically experience temporary terms of trade shocks and those that typically experience permanent terms of trade shocks. The results from panel-data regressions of the two groups of countries support the theoretical predictions of the intertemporal approach to the current account. We find that the greater (lesser) the persistence of the terms of trade shock, the more (less) the investment effect dominates the consumption-smoothing effect on saving, so that the current account balance moves in the opposite (same) direction as that of the shock.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781589062733
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 130

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Summarizes the for ward-looking analytical work program on macroeconomic issues related to the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper approach. The program is evolving through a process that began with a technical workshop; participants from low-income countries, donors, academia, and civil society drafted guidance on selected issues and identified priority research topics. Partners, policymakers, and economic scholars are encouraged to share their perspectives and findings through respective team leaders, whose e-mail addresses are provided. The publication also summarizes IMF analytical work, and contains a bibliography of nearly 1,000 papers.

Author: Paul R. Masson
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 9780815797531
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 248

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Book Description
Africa is working toward the goal of creating a common currency that would serve as a symbol of African unity. The advantages of a common currency include lower transaction costs, increased stability, and greater insulation of central banks from pressures to provide monetary financing. Disadvantages relate to asymmetries among countries, especially in their terms of trade and in the degree of fiscal discipline. More disciplined countries will not want to form a union with countries whose excessive spending puts upward pressure on the central bank's monetary expansion. In T he Monetary Geography of Africa, Paul Masson and Catherine Pattillo review the history of monetary arrangements on the continent and analyze the current situation and prospects for further integration. They apply lessons from both experience and theory that lead to a number of conclusions. To begin with, West Africa faces a major problem because Nigeria has both asymmetric terms of trade—it is a large oil exporter while its potential partners are oil importers—and most important, large fiscal imbalances. Secondly, a monetary union among all eastern or southern African countries seems infeasible at this stage, since a number of countries suffer from the effects of civil conflicts and drought and are far from achieving the macroeconomic stability of South Africa. Lastly, the plan by Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda to create a common currency seems to be generally compatible with other initiatives that could contribute to greater regional solidarity. However, economic gains would likely favor Kenya, which, unlike the other two countries, has substantial exports to its neighbors, and this may constrain the political will needed to proceed. A more promising strategy for monetary integration would be to build on existing monetary unions—the CFA franc zone in western and central Africa and the Common Monetary Area in southern Africa. Masson and Pattillo argue that the goal of a creating a s

Author: Alexander Sarris
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 9781781008027
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 492

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Book Description
This book argues that the viability of many observed market and non-market interventions in agricultural products worldwide depends considerably on the underlying behaviour of the relevant commodity markets. Many of these policies have had distortive impacts, resulting in much discussion and controversy in the context of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Round of trade negotiations.

Author: International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451952821
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60

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Book Description
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.

Author: Robert Kappel
Publisher: Nordic Africa Institute
ISBN: 9789171065216
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 64

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Book Description
Structural Stability is a particular focus for reconceptualizing developmental strategy and development aid and has provoked unfore-seen responses in the course of a recent, mainly German debate. This debate began late in 2000 when a number of prominent German scholars in African Studies initiated a policy dialogue through a widely circulated and publicly discussed "Afrika Memorandum" centred on the notion of structural stability. Its arguments are relevant not only to a German audience but offer stimulating and thought-provoking inputs into the debate in the wider European context on bilateral and multilateral relations with Africa. This Discussion Paper presents the revised contributions to a Consultative Workshop on Structural Stability in an African Context that took place at the Nordic Africa Institute in Uppsala on 31 March and 1 April 2003.

Author: Hany Gamil Besada
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1315514230
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 301

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Book Description
Bringing together some of the world’s leading thinkers and policy experts in the area of natural resource governance and management in Africa, this volume addresses the most critical policy issues affecting the continent’s ability to manage and govern its precious resources. The narrative of the book is solutions-driven, as experts weigh on specific issues within the context of Africa’s natural resource governance and offer appropriate policy recommendations on how to best manage the continent’s resources. This is a must-read for government policy makers in industrialized economies and, more importantly, in Africa and emerging economies, as well as for academic researchers working in the field, extractive companies operating on the continent, extractive industry and trade associations, and multilateral and donor aid institutions.

Author: Tatah Mentan
Publisher: African Books Collective
ISBN: 9956792365
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 580

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Book Description
Africas dynamic security environment is characterized by great diversityfrom conventional challenges such as insurgencies, resource and identity conflicts, and post-conflict stabilization to growing threats from piracy, narcotics trafficking, violent extremism, and organized crime taking root in urban slums, among others. This precarious environment jeopardizes security at the societal, community and individual levels. In a globalized and interconnected world, millions of people worldwide are affected by some form of human insecurity. Infectious and parasitic diseases annually kill millions. Internally displaced persons number millions, including 5 million in Sudan alone. In Zambia 1 million people in a population of 11 million are reported to be HIV-positive, a situation much worse in other countries. Potable water crisis looms almost everywhere. In this book Tatah Mentan points out the need to shift the focus away from a state-centric and military-strategic emphasis on security to an interdisciplinary and people-centric approach that embraces notions like global citizenship, empowerment and participation. The primary elements of economic, food, health, environment, personal, community and political security all comprise the broader understanding of human security in an intricately interconnected world.

Author: Paul Cashin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 58

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Book Description
A country's terms of trade is one of the most important relative prices in economics, yet economists are largely ignorant of many of its empirical properties. The ratio of an index of a country's export prices to the prices of its imported goods defines the net barter terms of trade (NBTT), which measures the number of units of imports that can be exchanged for a unit of exports. Particularly for commodity-exporting developing countries, movements in the NBTT are key determinants of a country's macroeconomic performance, and have an important impact on real national incomes. For example, arabica coffee is the dominant exportable of Ethiopia. The slump in world arabica coffee prices in 1986-87, largely caused by world production in excess of consumption, resulted in a 40 percent fall in Ethiopia's terms of trade. As imports were about 15 percent of its national expenditure, this adverse movement in its terms of trade resulted in about a 6 percent decline in Ethiopia's real income. Such terms of trade-induced shocks to real incomes in developing countries necessitate a domestic policy response, but in framing an appropriate response, an important question is how long-lasting are typical shocks?