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Author: Ms.Gita Gopinath Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 151351976X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy - particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China - on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to total prices paid by importers, suggesting the tariffs' incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, using product-level data from several large multi-national retailers, we demonstrate that the impact of the tariffs on retail prices is more mixed. Some affected product categories have seen sharp price increases, but the difference between affected and unaffected products is generally quite modest, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. These retailers' imports increased after the initial announcement of possible tariffs, but before their full implementation, so the intermediate passthrough of tariffs to their prices may not persist. Finally, in contrast to the case of foreign exporters facing US tariffs, we show that US exporters lowered their prices on goods subjected to foreign retaliatory tariffs compared to exports of non-targeted goods.
Author: Ms.Gita Gopinath Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 151351976X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy - particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China - on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to total prices paid by importers, suggesting the tariffs' incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, using product-level data from several large multi-national retailers, we demonstrate that the impact of the tariffs on retail prices is more mixed. Some affected product categories have seen sharp price increases, but the difference between affected and unaffected products is generally quite modest, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. These retailers' imports increased after the initial announcement of possible tariffs, but before their full implementation, so the intermediate passthrough of tariffs to their prices may not persist. Finally, in contrast to the case of foreign exporters facing US tariffs, we show that US exporters lowered their prices on goods subjected to foreign retaliatory tariffs compared to exports of non-targeted goods.
Author: Alberto Cavallo Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513518380 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy - particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China - on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to total prices paid by importers, suggesting the tariffs' incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, using product-level data from several large multi-national retailers, we demonstrate that the impact of the tariffs on retail prices is more mixed. Some affected product categories have seen sharp price increases, but the difference between affected and unaffected products is generally quite modest, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. These retailers' imports increased after the initial announcement of possible tariffs, but before their full implementation, so the intermediate passthrough of tariffs to their prices may not persist. Finally, in contrast to the case of foreign exporters facing US tariffs, we show that US exporters lowered their prices on goods subjected to foreign retaliatory tariffs compared to exports of non-targeted goods.
Author: Camila Casas Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484330609 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 62
Book Description
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
Author: Gerard McLinden Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 0821385976 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 401
Book Description
Border clearance processes by customs and other agencies are among the most important and problematic links in the global supply chain. Delays and costs at the border undermine a country’s competitiveness, either by taxing imported inputs with deadweight inefficiencies or by adding costs and reducing the competitiveness of exports. This book provides a practical guide to assist policy makers, administrators, and border management professionals with information and advice on how to improve border management systems, procedures, and institutions.
Author: Lukas Boer Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 76
Book Description
We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions in Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism, in aggregate and across sectors and regions. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy uncertainty shocks. Tariff shocks depress trade, investment, and output persistently. The general equilibrium import elasticity is –0.8. Historically, NAFTA/WTO raised output by 1-3% for twenty years. Undoing the 2018/19 measures would raise output by 4% over three years. The findings imply higher gains of trade than partial equilibrium or static trade models.
Author: Natalie Chen Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475526431 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 58
Book Description
This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the heterogeneous response of exporters to real exchange rate fluctuations due to product quality. Our model shows that the elasticity of demand perceived by exporters decreases with a real depreciation and with quality, leading to more pricing-to-market and to a smaller response of export volumes to a real depreciation for higher quality goods. We test the proposed theory using a highly disaggregated Argentinean firm-level wine export dataset between 2002 and 2009 combined with experts wine rankings as a measure of quality. The model predictions find strong support in the data and the results are robust to different measures of quality, samples, specifications, and to the potential endogeneity of quality.
Author: Jesper Lindé Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484306112 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 54
Book Description
We study the robustness of the Lerner symmetry result in an open economy New Keynesian model with price rigidities. While the Lerner symmetry result of no real effects of a combined import tariff and export subsidy holds up approximately for a number of alternative assumptions, we obtain quantitatively important long-term deviations under complete international asset markets. Direct pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices and slow exchange rate adjustment can also generate significant short-term deviations from Lerner. Finally, we quantify the macroeconomic costs of a trade war and find that they can be substantial, with permanently lower income and trade volumes. However, a fully symmetric retaliation to a unilaterally imposed border adjustment tax can prevent any real or nominal effects.
Author: Dominique M. Gross Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451846622 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
This paper explicitly takes into account the dynamic oligopolistic rivalry among source producers to evaluate the degree of exchange rate pass-through. Using recent time-series techniques for the case of imported automobiles in Switzerland, the results show that prices are strategic complements and that the degree of pass-through is lower in the long run than in the short run. We attribute this to the fact that, although some rivals match long-term price changes, others do not, inducing the producer who faces a change in exchange rate to absorb a greater proportion of the variation.
Author: Jakob Engel Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464817057 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 206
Book Description
Trade is a well-established driver of growth and poverty reduction.But changes in trade policy also have distributional impacts that create winners and losers. It is vital to understand and clearly communicate how trade affects economic well-being across all segments of the population, as well as how policies can more effectively ensure that the gains from trade are distributed more widely. The Distributional Impacts of Trade: Empirical Innovations, Analytical Tools, and Policy Responses provides a deeper understanding of the distributional effects of trade across regions, industries, and demographic groups within countries over time. It includes an overview (chapter 1); a review of innovations in empirical and theoretical work covering the impacts of trade at the subnational level (chapter 2); highlights from empirical case studies on Bangladesh, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Sri Lanka (chapter 3); and a policy agenda to improve distributional outcomes from trade (chapter 4). This book comes at a time when the shock from COVID-19 (coronavirus) adds to an already uncertain trade policy environment in which the value of the multilateral trading system has been under increased scrutiny. A better understanding of how trade affects distributional outcomes can lead to more inclusive policies and support the ability of countries to maximize broad-based benefits from trade.
Author: Ms.Gita Gopinath
Author: Ms.Gita Gopinath
Author: Alberto Cavallo
Author: Camila Casas
Author: United States. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Author: Gerard McLinden
Author: Lukas Boer
Author: Natalie Chen
Author: Jesper Lindé
Author: Dominique M. Gross
Author: Jakob Engel